The future is urban

Some changes in human history are sudden and we are often mesmerized by them. Others are more incremental and evolutionary, yet no less revolutionary or impactful. Urbanization belongs to the latter.

Cities originated in the Middle East and, much like Middle Eastern cuisine, there is some uncertainty about who should claim the distinction of having created the first collective form of human living, where people gathered and collaborated for mutual benefit. Was it Uruk in southern Mesopotamia? Was it Jericho in Palestine? Or perhaps Byblos in today’s Lebanon? Regardless of the answer, the movement from the countryside and rural life toward towns and cities has dramatically changed the way humans live — and the last chapter of this story is far from being written.

From humble beginnings in small settlements, the urban population has grown steadily. With technological advances, especially in the post-Second World War era, the demand for manual labor has declined while new opportunities continue to emerge in towns and cities. In 1950, urban living was still relatively uncommon: only about 20 percent of the world’s 2.5 billion people lived in cities, defined as population centers with at least 50,000 inhabitants. Decades of urbanization have since transformed the global landscape. Today, cities are home to about 45 percent of the world’s 8.2 billion people.

The benefits of city life often outweigh its disadvantages and the trajectory points to continued urban growth

Yossi Mekelberg

Despite the negative aspects of urban living, largely driven by high population density, cities continue to attract people in growing numbers. High pollution levels, rising living costs, severe traffic congestion, reduced access to green spaces and struggling infrastructure for waste management are among the most common challenges. Higher crime rates in some urban areas add to these concerns.

Yet the benefits of city life often outweigh its disadvantages and the trajectory points to continued urban growth. A recent UN report estimated that the world will have gained approximately 2.2 billion new urban residents by 2050, mostly in Africa and Asia. As a result, about 70 percent of humanity might be living in cities, many of them megacities with more than 10 million inhabitants.

What draws people to cities is both tangible and intangible. Cities offer material benefits, jobs and wealth-creating opportunities, while services are more widely available, accessible and diverse. Healthcare, education and retail options are typically far more extensive than in rural areas. Yet urban life is also about lifestyle — one that is constantly evolving. Urban living has reshaped human interactions and transformed society. Without cities, art and culture, architecture and tourism, even the art of conversation, would likely not have flourished as they have done.

However, this transformation has come at a cost. Urbanization has changed the nature of some of our social ties. For example, we are seeing the decline of the extended family and the support structures this has traditionally provided. And many people feel that city life can be paradoxically solitary, where one can live among millions of others yet often experience social isolation.

Industrialization was a major driving force behind the expansion of cities, but their role extends far beyond economics. Cities are meeting places for the exchange of ideas, where minds interact, collaborate and even disagree. This dynamic exchange is what makes cities the economic, societal and cultural powerhouses they have become, even more so in multicultural contexts.

Over decades of urban debate since the mid-20th century, cities have emerged as engines of both national and global economic growth and centers for the cross-fertilization of ideas and innovation. Today, cities account for more than 80 percent of global gross domestic product, far exceeding their share of the world’s population and suggesting significantly higher productivity than rural areas.

The direction of travel is clear: the future is urban. If projections suggesting that up to 90 percent of the global population could live in cities by the end of the century prove accurate, urban development will become even more complex, yet also more exciting and promising. Rapid urban expansion requires cities, regardless of their location, to demonstrate resilience across three key areas: economic productivity, social inclusion and environmental sustainability. While these goals may appear contradictory within current economic structures, they are in fact complementary.

Many people feel city life can be paradoxically solitary, living among millions of others yet experiencing social isolation

Yossi Mekelberg

Many of the problems cities face stem from uneven development — underdevelopment in some areas and overdevelopment in others. This imbalance creates inequalities, a sense of injustice and social alienation. In many cases, rather than advancing social mobility and equality, cities can inadvertently reinforce the opposite. The larger the city, the more pronounced this phenomenon often becomes.

Rising living costs, particularly in highly sought-after cities that usually have soaring rents, can push people toward poverty or keep them constantly on the brink of it, sometimes leading to homelessness. In lower-income countries, cities increasingly serve as refuges from poverty and the consequences of climate change. In such contexts, urban development must align with the UN Sustainable Development Goals.

When conditions in large cities, and more so in megacities, become hostile to low-income residents, opportunities emerge for smaller towns and cities to think bigger. Too often, low income is mistakenly equated with a lack of skills, motivation or ability. In reality, the issue is frequently a lack of opportunity. Many urban areas that have experienced relative decline have missed the chance to reinvigorate themselves through developing strategies that create opportunities and revitalize local economies without leaving existing populations behind.

In this endeavor, artificial intelligence could become a game-changer. It has already shown promise in urban planning. Since the early 2000s, advanced technologies have played an increasingly central role in the development of “smart cities,” using information and communication technologies, such as 3D imaging and data modelling, to improve the quality of urban services and identify environmentally sustainable improvements. As the costs of AI continue to fall, future cities are likely to benefit even more from its planning capabilities, which may also contribute to job creation.

Although the move toward urban life may have initially been driven more by necessity than preference, urban centers have nonetheless continued to attract growing numbers to the city lights. Beyond just jobs, cities give people a sense of identity, pride and belonging. They are a place where life rarely feels dull and where people can continue to grow throughout their lives.

As the British writer Samuel Johnson famously observed in the late 18th century: “When a man is tired of London, he is tired of life.” Those who embrace urban life to its fullest may occasionally suffer from fatigue — but rarely from boredom.

• Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. X: @YMekelberg