Turkiye’s stance on emerging defense ties between Ukraine, the Gulf and Syria

During a meeting with his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, who paid a visit to Turkiye last Saturday, the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan expressed his satisfaction with Ukraine’s efforts to further develop and strengthen its relations with the Gulf states that have been under attack by Iran since the joint US and Israeli military offensive against Iran began on Feb. 28.

Amid these Iranian attacks on the region, Zelensky embarked on a critical Gulf tour in late March that included stops in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar. During those visits, he announced the signing of defense agreements with the states, hailing them as “historic.”

The details of the agreements were not made public but Zelensky said they would include sharing of Ukrainian expertise in drone-defense technology, electronic warfare and interception technology that can be used against Iranian drones.

Meanwhile, Kuwait has also shown an interest in interceptor drones developed by Ukrainian firms such as TAF, a prominent manufacturer of first-person view drones.

Few would have expected that Kyiv would emerge as a significant partner for Gulf states that are now under attack from the same, Iranian-designed Shahed drones that Russia initially purchased and used against Ukraine.

The Gulf states want to leverage Ukraine’s experience, with plans to integrate low-cost Ukrainian interceptor systems into their defense capabilities, which currently rely on expensive air-defense missiles to down Iranian drones. For its part, Kyiv seeks to leverage its expertise to build closer defense ties with the Gulf states in the long term.

Zelensky’s visit should be seen as a diplomatic gain that will shape Ukraine’s relations with Gulf states in the long term

Dr. Sinem Cengiz

Ukrainian support in reinforcing the antimissile and antidrone capacity in the Gulf is certainly significant, and the signing of long-term security deals with states in the region is clearly a win for Ukraine.

However, the Gulf nations do not seek only to purchase Ukrainian drones, but also to gain operational experience. Zelensky confirmed that Ukraine has already deployed military specialists across the UAE, Saudi Arabia and Qatar, with additional teams en route to Kuwait. These military specialists are tasked with sharing wartime experience that has been gained countering Russian drone attacks since 2022.

In this context, Kyiv aims to transform its own wartime experience into a political and strategic asset, and strengthen its position in the Middle East. Beyond the agreements that were signed, Zelensky’s visit should be seen as a diplomatic gain that will shape Ukraine’s relations with Gulf states in the long term.

Following his Gulf tour, Zelensky visited Turkiye and then made an unannounced trip to Syria, on which he was joined by the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan. The visit to Syria had several dimensions, connecting Ukraine-Syria relations, in which Russia remains the elephant in the room, with Ukraine-Gulf relations. All of these dimensions are also closely connected with Turkiye.

Zelensky’s meetings with Erdogan and the Syrian president, Ahmad Al-Sharaa, took place shortly after Ukraine signed security-cooperation agreements with the Gulf states. Damascus will reportedly be the production base for Ukrainian drone systems destined for Gulf nations.

Zelensky stated that Ukrainian diplomacy is working to restore a permanent presence in Syria and to deepen cooperation with countries in the region through new security arrangements. The meeting between Zelensky, Al-Sharaa and Fidan was said to have focused on defense-related matters and Russia's war on Ukraine.

Zelensky’s visits to the Gulf states, Turkiye and Syria, during which he promoted Ukraine as a new partner, certainly irked Moscow. However, Russia is in no place to criticize those countries for welcoming him.

Russian bases remain in Syria but Moscow’s influence has significantly declined since the fall of the Assad regime in December 2024. Zelensky’s visit can therefore be seen as an attempt to challenge the Russian presence there.

There is little appetite in Damascus for Russia, which is similar to the sentiment in the Gulf states, particularly after reports that Russia has been supplying Iran with intelligence on US bases and infrastructure in the region. During the war between Russia and Ukraine, Gulf states, in coordination with Turkiye, have acted as mediators. These efforts helped Kyiv gain the trust of Gulf nations and now both sides are building on this. The agreements that were signed are the solid evidence of this.

There is also a US dimension to the emerging defense ties between Ukraine and the Gulf; both Ukraine and the regional states are frustrated with the approach of President Donald Trump and his administration. Trump humiliated Zelensky after inviting him to the White House early last year, and has alienated European states. He also did not consider security concerns in the Gulf when launching the war against Iran.

This puts Ukraine and the Gulf states on the same page regarding their current perceptions of both the US and Russia.

How does Turkiye view these emerging dynamics? Ankara recently agreed to deepen its strategic cooperation with Ukraine, including the transfer of military experience and the development of energy projects. It had already provided Ukraine with drones during the war with Russia, at least to an extent that did not directly antagonize Moscow.

Turkiye has also signed defense agreements with Gulf states, and now appears to be playing the role of facilitator in fostering closer relations between Ukraine and both Syria and the Gulf.

Ankara played an instrumental role in Zelensky’s outreach to Damascus but it also wants to control the process, as evidenced by Fidan’s presence at the meeting between Al-Sharaa and Zelensky. Erdogan personally has good ties with both presidents, and Turkiye has provided military support to both leaders when needed.

Ankara also has close ties with the Gulf states, and is seen as a potential actor in the security of the region, particularly after the recent Iranian attacks.

Turkiye is certainly viewing as positive the emerging Ukraine-Syria-Gulf defense ties, a development that has been framed by Zelensky as heralding “new relations and new opportunities,” but at the same time is positioning itself as a “balance” between conflicting parties — whether Ukraine and Russia, or Iran, the US and Israel.

• Dr. Sinem Cengiz is a Turkish political analyst who specializes in Turkiye’s relations with the Middle East. X: @SinemCngz