With the results of Iraq’s first ever free elections just published, it seems that the Iraqis are set to surprise both friend and foe in a number of ways. The first surprise is that, despite efforts by opponents of the election, including insurgents who tried to terrorize voters away from polling stations, it is now clear that almost two-thirds of those eligible to vote did so. The second surprise is that the much-predicted Shiite tidal wave, supposed to sweep all aside, did not materialize. The unified Shiite list, backed by Grand Ayatollah Ali Muhammad Al-Sistani, ended up with just over 47 percent of the vote, far short of the 60 percent they had hoped for.
The third surprise is that the expected Arab Sunni boycott of the election was far more patchy than many had forecast. Where the Arab Sunnis did stay away, the reason was a lack of security and widespread violence rather than a deliberate decision to boycott. In such mainly Arab Sunni provinces as Salahuddin and Diyalah, for example, voter turnout was more than respectable.
The fourth surprise is that the number of Arab Sunnis to enter the transitional National Assembly is almost two times higher than the demographic strength of the community within the Iraqi population.
The fifth, and perhaps the most significant surprise of this historic election was the massive ‘no’ that Iraqis said to extremists of all kinds. A dozen or so extremist Islamist groups and parties ended up with less than one percent of the vote. At the other end of the spectrum, the remnants of the atheist left failed to register on the electoral radar.
There is now no doubt a majority of Iraqis who see the future of their country as one based on diversity, solidarity and moderation. It is now up to those elected to translate those desires into practical policies.
The election results send two key messages. The first is that the people of Iraq want to control their own government and would not allow a return to any form of despotism in the name of either religion or nationalism. The second message is that all those who had argued, often against heavy odds, that an Arab country could be helped to move toward democracy were not as off-target as their critics claimed.
It is certain that a single election, especially one held — to say the least — under less than normal circumstances does not in itself produce a democracy. But what matters is that Iraq has taken the giant leap it needed to take in order to break with half-a-century of bloody despotic rule.
It is now the duty of the international community, especially the major democracies, to set aside the differences they had over the war and unite in helping Iraq over the 12-month crucial transition period that is now ahead. A strong signal from the international community to welcome the new Iraq back into the mainstream would go a long way to help Iraq’s new elected leadership come to grips with the many problems their nation still faces.
