BRUSSELS, 19 February 2005 — European Union policymakers are hoping the Spanish public’s widely anticipated approval of the bloc’s new constitution tomorrow will spur a wave of public enthusiasm for the treaty across the 25 EU nations.
But that is probably wishful thinking. Spanish public support for the constitution is not a reflection of how many others in Europe about the treaty — or indeed the EU.
Signed by EU leaders in Rome last October — and negotiated amid much acrimony by the bloc’s governments for almost two years before that — the 325-page treaty remains a mystery to most ordinary Europeans.
A Eurobarometer poll last month found that only about half of all Europeans knew about the constitution and a third of the total had never heard about it.
Public ignorance about EU matters is not new — and normally does not cause much hand wringing among officials in Brussels.
This time around, however, the problem is that the treaty must be approved by all 25 member states before it can be implemented as of end 2006.
That makes many in Brussels worry that with Euro-apathy running high, the EU constitution may not meet with public approval in all of the bloc’s members.
There is special concern about how the treaty will fare in the ten states that have said they will be holding public referendums on the constitution over the next eighteen months.
The Spanish referendum will be followed by public consultations in Portugal in April, with Luxembourg and the Netherlands soon after.
The referendum in France is expected to be held in June, and in Poland in autumn. Ireland, Denmark and the Czech Republic will also be putting the treaty to popular approval although no dates have been set.
Britain has said it will organize its referendum in 2006, possibly becoming the last EU country do so. Polls show that public antipathy to the constitution is highest in Britain, prompting fears in Brussels that a No vote in the country could trigger a EU— wide political crisis.
In countries where no referendum is being held, the constitution is being submitted to parliaments. Hungary, Lithuania and Slovenia have already ratified. So has the European Parliament although its vote was purely symbolic.
EU officials are also worried about a low turnout in the referendums, fearing that as was the case in last year’s elections to the European Parliament, this will highlight Europeans’ indifference to the EU.
Governments across the bloc are working hard to campaign for the treaty. But many officials admit that explaining the constitution to a wider audience of nonexperts is no easy task.
There is concern that in countries such as France and the Netherlands, public reaction to the treaty may become mixed up with other issues.
Paris is worried of public rejection of the document because of opposition to the EU’s planned entry talks with Turkey. In the Netherlands, there are fears that discussions could get embroiled in the heated debate on immigration. Widest possible endorsement of the new constitution is deemed essential to streamline EU decision-making in an expanded Europe.
It provides for replacing vetoes with majority voting in many areas though not in foreign affairs, defense, social security, taxation and culture.
Significantly for a EU searching for a stronger global role, the constitution provides for the appointment of a first-ever EU foreign minister to give the union more visibility on the international stage.
