In the past two weeks, events inside and outside Egypt and Saudi Arabia have had profound impact on the American perception of the health of its relations with its two most influential Arab allies. There are many positive things to say about the US-Egyptian and US-Saudi relationships, but also significant points of friction. Recent events highlight the simple fact that in reality, the success or failure of US regional policy hinges heavily on the support and cooperation of each nation. Equally clear is that American insistence on reform is creating strains on these relations. It is not that President Bush will be forced to pick between practical political reality and theoretical principles. But he will ultimately find a balance between these two potentially clashing foreign policy objectives.
While the outcomes of the elections in Palestine and Iraq were welcomed in the Middle East, there was also anxiety over their meaning. Must reform and democratization be carried out under occupation? Is Washington receptive to homegrown concepts of reform, or must all Arab nations conform to US models? Does Washington intend to meddle directly or indirectly in the domestic politics of other Arab nations?
For Egypt, it has been the best of times and worst of times, at least in the American press. Egypt has long been the key player on Arab-Israeli peace process. Egypt’s importance was demonstrated again recently when it convened the Sharm El-Sheik summit, which resulted, at least temporarily, in brokering a cease-fire between Israelis and Palestinians and getting the peace process back on track. It represented the most promising development since the start of the intifada.
But the peace process was only half the story. Simultaneously, Egypt was being rebuked in the press for the arrest of Ayman Nour, the chairman of the opposition Al-Ghad party. The arrest was seen as a clear sign of the Egyptian government’s opposition to change and democracy. American critics were quick to suggest the nearly $60 billion in US assistance to Cairo since the 1970s merely propped up the Egyptian government. In return, Egypt protected American regional interests, especially on matters pertaining to the peace process. They see the arrest of Nour as a serious test for Bush, and perhaps a turning point in the US-Egyptian relationship. Some believe the US cannot conduct business as usual with the Mubarak government, and feel it is time to demand change lest Egypt suffer the consequences.
Saudi Arabia has also garnered a great deal of press attention. Unlike Egypt, the recent coverage of Saudi Arabia has been mostly positive. The Riyadh Counterterrorism International Conference did not get significant media play in the US, nor did it receive much attention from the American political establishment. However, the conference’s final communiqué, which among other things endorsed Crown Prince Abdullah’s idea to create an international counterterrorism center, demonstrated progress in the US-led international war on terrorism. In that conflict, Saudi Arabia is a key ally, and its full cooperation is critical to Washington’s efforts.
The US government was pleased with the conference. “First of all, let me congratulate — let us congratulate the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia for hosting a successful counterterrorism conference that brought together over 50 countries and international organizations. The conference produced a declaration, or issued a declaration of recommendations that we believe demonstrates the seriousness of the international community’s commitment to combat terrorism and we welcome its calls for strength and cooperation and coordination among countries in the struggle against terrorism, money-laundering, weapons trafficking and drug smuggling,” stated State Department Deputy Press Spokesman Adam Ereli.
Domestically, the Saudi elections were extensively covered in newspapers across the United States. The Saudi government was chastised for not allowing women to participate. But most observers concluded that in holding the elections, Saudi Arabia has taken a dramatic step forward. But within the praise, both in the media and among American government officials, one could detect an eagerness to see what comes next.
“Obviously, it’s a welcome development. I think it’s a sign that Saudi Arabia is not immune to the reforms sweeping the region; that this is an opportunity for — although they’re just municipal elections, still a welcome and important opportunity for Saudi citizens to participate in the process of local governance... And we will be, obviously, watching these developments closely and working to help sustain and encourage the process of reform in Saudi Arabia,” noted Ereli.
There is much trepidation in the Middle East over President Bush’s State of the Union address. In it, Bush not only chastised Iran and Syria, but goaded Saudi Arabia and Egypt to undertake unspecified domestic reforms. Championing the cause of democracy and freedom, as noted in the days after the address by President George H. W. Bush, is not a new idea. In fact, it has always been a tenet of American foreign policy and the national consciousness. But in so vocally advocating it, and in citing Egypt and Saudi Arabia, Bush’s words resonated inside and outside the United States. Since the State of the Union address, both nations have demonstrated their importance to US regional policy. But both are also clearly under the American microscope for their activities at home. To what extent this will impact US bilateral relation remains to be seen.
— David Dumke is principal of the Washington-based MidAmr Group.
