LISBON, 22 February 2005 — Portugal’s Prime Minister-elect Jose Socrates’ election triumph gives him a solid basis to tackle the country’s huge problems, though many citizens distrust his ability to solve them, analysts said.
The elections returned the Socialists to power after three years in opposition, giving them their first outright majority since the country restored democracy after the 1974 Carnation Revolution.
Yet Socrates’ brilliant performance reflected the weakness of his adversary, conservative caretaker Prime Minister Pedro Santana Lopes, rather than his perceived leadership qualities, observers said.
Santana Lopes became prime minister without a vote in July, when his predecessor, Jose Manuel Barroso, stepped down to head the European Commission. His government performed so erratically that President Jorge Sampaio called an early election.
Elected Socialist leader only in September, 47-year-old Socrates is seen by many as an inexperienced and lightweight politician created partly by the media.
The former environment minister will now have to show whether he can push through a string of long-due reforms the country urgently needs.
Portugal ranks as the poorest eurozone country, after being surpassed by Greece. Unemployment has soared to 7.3 percent from 4.8 percent in 2001, productivity is only 64 percent of EU average, a huge gap separates rich and poor and tax evasion is estimated to cost the country 6 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP).
The public sector employs a massive 730,000 people, and Lisbon is having constant trouble keeping public deficits below the 3 percent of GDP limit imposed by the European Union, which Portugal exceeded as the first member country in 2002.
Public services are in a sorry state, with hospitals struggling to cope with a recent flu epidemic, while a pedophilia scandal involving prominent personalities has reduced confidence in the neutrality of a judiciary brimming with backlogged cases.
The election took place in what was described as the most depressed atmosphere in three decades, with many people expressing a deep distrust of politicians.
Professing admiration for British Prime Minister Tony Blair, Socrates has promised to “defeat pessimism” and to create 150,000 jobs.
He pledges a “technological shock” and to invest in training and scientific research while pursuing economic austerity in other areas and trimming the public sector through attrition.
Critics say that Socrates has not been sufficiently clear about his economic plans and fear he will repeat the performance of his mentor, 1995-2002 Socialist Prime Minister Antonio Guterres, whom many blame for the current crisis.
Socrates has also announced a referendum on abortion in an attempt to liberalize the most conservative legislation in Western Europe, which prompts up to 40,000 women a year to undergo clandestine abortions, often in unsafe conditions.
In 1998, a very narrow majority of voters rejected freer abortion in a referendum with 32 percent voter turnout.
In foreign affairs, Socrates is expected to maintain a close relationship with the United States, though he initially criticized the Iraq war.
