WASHINGTON, 26 February 2005 — President Bush has reached a dead end in his foreign policy, but he has failed to recognize his quandary. His belief that the polite reception he received in Europe is a vindication of his previous adventures is a vestige of fantasy. As the strains of Beethoven’s Sixth Symphony, the Pastoral, filled the Concert Noble in Brussels, Bush behaved as though the mood music itself was a dramatic new phase in the trans-Atlantic relationship. He gives no indication that he grasps the exhaustion of his policy. His reductio ad absurdum was reached with his statement on Iran: “This notion that the US is getting ready to attack Iran is simply ridiculous. And having said that, all options are on the table.” Including, presumably, the “simply ridiculous”.
The European reception for Bush was not an embrace of his neoconservative world view, but an attempt to put it in the past. New Europe is trying to compartmentalize old Bush. To the extent that he promises to be different, the Europeans encourage him; to the extent that he is the same, they pretend it’s not happening.
The Europeans, including the British government, feel privately that the past three years have been hijacked by Iraq. Facing the grinding, bloody and unending reality of Iraq doesn’t mean accepting Bush’s original premises, but getting on with the task of stability. Ceasing the finger pointing is the basis for European consensus on its new, if not publicly articulated, policy: Containment of Bush. Naturally, Bush misses the nuances and ambiguities. Of course, he has already contained himself, or at least his pre-emption doctrine, which seems to have been good for one-time use only. None of the allies is willing to repeat the experience.
The problem of Iran is in many ways the opposite of Iraq. The Europeans have committed their credibility to negotiations, the Iranians have diplomatic means to preclude unilateral US action, and Bush — who, according to European officials, has no sense of what to do — is boxed in, whether he understands it or not. The Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice has vaguely threatened to refer Iran to the UN Security Council. Bush doesn’t know whether to join the Europeans in guaranteeing an agreement to prevent Iran from developing nuclear weapons or not. “So long as Iran remains within the nonproliferation treaty and the (UN weapons) inspectors remain on the ground there, there’s nothing the US can do within the Security Council,” John Ritch, the former US ambassador to the UN International Atomic Energy Agency, told me. The argument for keeping the Iranians within the treaty was overwhelming, he said. “As long as they are in the inspection system it gives us maximum opportunity to evaluate every step of their nuclear development ... The US should be willing to support a European-brokered deal under which the Iranians forgo their right to build a domestic nuclear enrichment and processing capability. Ultimately, the way to promote a satisfactory outcome is to empower the Europeans by asserting that the US will back up a sound agreement.”
Bush has hummed a few bars of rapprochement. With their applause, the Europeans have begun to angle him into a corner on Iran. In time Bush must either join the negotiations or regress to neoconservatism, which would wreck the European relationship. If he chooses a course that is not “simply ridiculous”, on his next visit the Europeans might be willing to play Beethoven’s Third Symphony, the Eroica.
