A dramatic turn around on the ground has followed the agreement. Some from among the warring armies have replaced their weapons with peacetime implements. Pakistani soldiers began assisting in carpeting their side of the bus route and constructing a bridge and bus terminal at the LoC. Indian soldiers have been disabling land mines India has laid near the LoC since 1948 to prevent LoC crossing by the army and militants.
Not too long ago these areas were only warring zones. They saw three wars, the two miniwars of Rann of Kutch (1965) and Kargil (1999). In 2002 the world had witnessed the South Asian version of the Cuban Missile Crisis. Together the two had deployed one million troops along the borders. Vajpayee had talked of a "decisive battle." Pakistan conducted three missile tests. It didn't blink. Musharraf instead declared: "We will respond to any aggression with our full might."
Alarm bells rang in Washington prompting phone calls to the region from President Bush and dispatching of special envoy Richard Armitage. Pullback from the brink of war was managed. Breathlessly the world had watched the unfolding crisis.
The bus agreement is the fillip the yearlong peace process needed. It signals keenness in Delhi and Islamabad to move forward on the 57-year intractable dispute of Jammu and Kashmir. By now having tried coercive diplomacy, brinkmanship, nuclear factor, military means and militancy, miniwars and actual wars, the Pakistanis and Indians are ready to invest in a bilateral peace process.
Home truths confront the two. Pakistan having opted for a strategic course correction requires energies for the home front. Its ambitious economic plans earned it the fourth place among Asia's top four growth performers in 2003. Without peace with Pakistan India cannot meet its energy and transit route requirements. And above all Kashmiris need a peaceful settlement.
Neither is likely to pull out of this process that covers the three tracks of normalization, CBMs and dispute resolution. Dispute settlement though hardly moves. In fact in January Pakistan took the Baghliar Dam issue (Islamabad claims India is constructing in violation of the Indus water Treaty) to the World Bank for appointment of a neutral expert. The dispute over the Kishanaganga Dam that India proposes to build over River Neelum may also land up in the World Bank.
The international community has zero tolerance for military engagement between these nuclear-studded neighbors.
With 34 bilateral meetings held within a year, an elaborate horizontal and vertical "dialogue architecture" comprising political leadership, bureaucrats, media and civil society is already in place.
Undoubtedly this peace process has triggered an unprecedented dynamic for the otherwise illusive Pakistan-India peacemaking. Some "out of the box" thinking also went into making the bus service possible.
Kashmiri political future, with their input, remains the outstanding question. In 1948 the UNSC, with the consent of Pakistan and India, passed a resolution that the future of the state be decided through a plebiscite. But it will take more than the bus service to allow the Kashmiris to determine their political future. According to Kashmiri sources, since their 1989 politico-military uprising around 80,000 Kashmiris have been killed.
Despite the virtual end to infiltration, recently acknowledged by the Indian Army chief, the uprising continues. Since the Musharraf-Manmohan Singh September meeting 400 people have died in clashes between Indian security forces and the militants.
Also the presence of 600,000 Indian military and paramilitary forces deployed, mostly in the Occupied Valley, continues. Only 6000 from Anantang were withdrawn. Pakistan had again suggested that India drastically reduce their numbers as one of the Kashmir-related CBMs.
Similarly most laws that have quashed Kashmiri civil and political rights have still to be repealed. The Congress repealed the Prevention of Terrorism Act. But the Special Armed Forces Act that allows detention without trial and house arrest is still there. People can also be shot if security forces are "threatened" or "peace is violated." A magistrate to order or FIR is not needed to arrest as under normal police laws.
While a smoothly-operated and a frequently run bus service would be a relief for divided Kashmiris and would trigger a new intra-Kashmiri dynamic, the Indian state will have to take steps to change the oppressive Kashmiri political context. The bus service will also test the trust levels between Pakistan and India. If indeed the two can ensure a hassle-free travel for the Kashmiris, that may lead to discovering new ways, with Kashmiri input, of resolving the Kashmiri demand for self-determination.
Musharraf insists a win-win solution for the Kashmiris, Pakistanis and the Indians is within grasp. That may not be so. Resolutions of chronic disputes follow processes. But getting the processes going is the critical first step. The former prime minister had also moved wisely in that direction by initiating the Lahore summit. Vajpayee had reciprocated. But because of Kargil we prevented ourselves from testing the potential and promise of Lahore. However we are back to engagement again. However its ability to resolve bilateral disputes, beginning with the water disputes, will determine if a resolution to Kashmir can flow from this important dialogue process that began after January 2004. And other significant developments like the beginning of the Iran, Pakistan and India gas line project too, would create conducive conditions for conflict resolution.
