While the arguments still rage over what is really causing it, global warming continues to demonstrate the radical changes it seems destined to bring to the world in which we live. The latest focus for concern is the Himalayan ice sheets.
The glaciers filling valleys in the world’s highest mountain range are melting and retreating at a steadily accelerating rate. In the fifty plus years since the first successful ascent of Mount Everest, the glacier at the foot of the peak, over the crevasses of which climbers had to scramble before attacking the face itself, has retreated no fewer than three miles. Melt waters from Himalayan glaciers give birth to seven major Asian rivers — the Ganges, Brahmaputra, Mekong, Thanlwin, Yangtze and Yellow Rivers. In normal times the flow of these water systems is controlled by winter freezes and spring thaws and regulated by natural melt water dams. Now as the volume of water pouring from the disappearing glaciers increases, these dams are overflowing and many may even collapse. This will spell catastrophe for the valley communities for hundreds of miles below them.
In the short term, says a new report from the World Wildlife Fund, communities along these rivers can expect sustained flooding which will wreck their infrastructure and damage agriculture. The long term, however, is even bleaker with falling water tables, droughts and a radical threat to the water supplies of the hundreds of millions of people who have looked to these great rivers for their survival. The International Commission for Snow and Ice has estimated that by 2035 — just 30 years from now — there will be no glaciers at all in the Himalayas. That would mean that the rivers which rise in this mountain chain would be entirely reliant upon spring and early summer snowmelt and would be mere shadows of their current selves for much of the year.
None of this profound change is inherently unmanageable. History has shown that some, though not all, societies have adapted to these major climactic changes. Unfortunately the decisions over what to do about global warming are to an extent being side-tracked by the bitter arguments over what is causing it. While environmentalists may well be right that root causes need to be addressed, it seems insane to be suspending virtually all other action while accusations shoot back and forth about what the root causes actually are.
If it is indeed correct that it is man-made pollution that is the major driver for climatic change, it seems clear that were they introduced today, even the most stringent efforts to reverse the effects are likely to take decades to have a palpable effect. Therefore now is the time for those with the power to do so to start working out what can be done in the short term to cope with the massive changes that are coming.
A key consideration is that the world has only so much in the way of resources to cope with a series of concurrent disasters which could very well make the Asian tsunami seem small in comparison. Unless we can start planning immediately for the troubles ahead, make sensible estimates of what long- and short-term assistance is needed and where to start stockpiling, when the disasters begin to strike, we are going to be overwhelmed. It is time to stop bickering over the cause and concentrate on the effects which look to be extremely dangerous.
