Despite retaining their respective political position on no-military president and the need to restore the 1973 Constitution, Pakistan's two mainstream political parties — the PPP and the PML-N — have entered into a dialogue with Pakistan's khaki establishment. The PPP has not given up its demands that BB not be arrested upon return, that fair and free elections be held in 2005, and cases against BB be withdrawn. The establishment however wants BB out and the cases intact. The establishment having politically "divorced" itself from MMA now seeks "good behavior" from the opposition.
The establishment let Asif Zardari free. Imprisoned in Nawaz Sharif's tenure, for almost eight years, corruption charges against him have yet to be legally established. Late last year it withdrew pressure on the Shahbaz family which it was exerting ever since Shahbaz's May 2004 attempted return to Pakistan. His wife returned to Pakistan to wed her daughters; he was allowed to travel to leave Pakistan.
The initial dialogue generated some goodwill. From BB there has been a selective political cease-fire. Attacks on the president have gone. Benazir publicly maintains she wants to give this dialogue a chance. PPP has accommodated establishment's requests for no political rallies. Shahbaz Sharif continues with his message of "burying the past."
However the PML-N as a party has been unable to reciprocate. Reconciliation does not come easy to party leader Nawaz Sharif. Reasons would include Nawaz's inability to travel to Pakistan for his father's burial, followed by Gen. Musharraf's statement that because of what he did to him personally he would have never have telephoned him to condole his father's death had it not been for Shahbaz's insistence and finally Islamabad's refusal to let Nawaz travel outside of Saudi Arabia.
Meanwhile the establishment seeks from PML-N a verbal cease-fire against Musharraf, unification with the official PML accepting Chaudary Shujaat as its leader and a later not immediate return of Shahbaz Sharif with Nawaz Sharif's blessings.
Most politicians however wonder will dialogue lead to confidence building and finally to an establishment-politicians agreement on the "rules of the game" under which institutions can oversee the functioning of democracy after a fair and free elections.
There remains an air of uncertainty on where the government's engagement with politicians is likely to end up. The establishment engaged the politicians because of two reasons; to stop the opposition from uniting over the uniform issue and to bring in the mainstream political forces to counter the religious parties.
The question of which party will get what from this engagement also lurks close beneath the surface as PPP and PML-N leadership engage bilaterally. But the larger issue is that the opposition parties are conducting themselves as they must in an establishment-controlled power context and one in which a united political opposition against the establishment is like a "pie in the sky." Equally a people's movement to back politicians against the establishment is a near impossibility. Engaging with the establishment is therefore a valid option.
As the dialogue with the opposition proceeds some contours of what the dialogue outcome could be, will emerge. For now the establishment is mulling over exploring seat adjustments in the local bodies polls, even in the 2007 polls or even bringing some opposition figures in the current Cabinet with the objective to ensure collective overseeing of the 2007 elections. The Establishment only knows it wants the present set-up to survive till 2007, the defeat of MMA in the next elections and another assured presidential term for Musharraf as president in 2007. Historically the PML has always been an establishment- supported party. Musharraf too views it as his main support base. But what is the state of this "base"?
The establishment's political engineering project has not delivered. PML remains a paper party surviving because of Gen. Musharraf's backing. Four years after engineering its creation through fair and foul means this party is no political force. The infighting, corruption and incompetence of some individuals have further undermined the official party.
On the political front therefore tension and turbulence remains. And it will for as long as politics is not provided an institutionalized structure of independent judiciary and independent Election Commission and the legal framework of a Constitution within which it can evolve. The onus for this rests on the establishment, indeed on Gen. Musharraf himself.
The final objective for reaching out to the political forces should be a consensus on new "rules of the game" that are vital for political stability. Without this, the much-needed "genuine democracy" in Pakistan will remain an illusion. The president has willing partners in Pakistan's mainstream political forces to move forward on this path. He has the power, authority and the goodwill too to lead Pakistan away from chronic political instability toward lasting democratic stability. Remaining above the political fray Musharraf must ensure that the establishment and the state of Pakistan undertake to stand by a consensus-based charter of democracy. Otherwise this "reconciliation" may lead nowhere.
