In two days time, Arab leaders will meet for their annual summit — this year in Algiers. There is an electricity running through the Middle East unlike anything in the past. The death of Yasser Arafat, Palestinian elections, a new Palestinian government, the apparent willingness of the Israelis to move toward a settlement, President Bush’s declaration last month of a settlement being his “immediate goal”, the agreement by Palestinian militant groups to maintain a truce against the Israelis, plus elections in Iraq, moves to give women the vote in Kuwait, constitutional changes proposed in Egypt, the development of democracy in the Gulf, and mass political demonstrations in Beirut all add up to a paradigm shift in the region. Transformation has begun — and the Arab League has a role in making sure that it continues on peaceful tracks.
The two areas demanding immediate action are the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and Lebanese-Syrian relations. The former will get top billing with the summit expected to update the 2002 summit plan proposed by Crown Prince Abdullah. Two years ago, the deal was rejected by Israel. This time the Israelis are in a different mood and the offer will be couched in a way that will make it all the more attractive. But all that will become academic if the militants break the truce. Pressure will have to be maintained behind the scenes in order to ensure that no rogue elements sabotage the work being done for peace by the Palestinian government.
The matter of Syrian-Lebanese relations is more awkward and more delicate. It is nigh impossible for an Arab summit to dictate terms to member states. In any event, Syria has said it will withdraw. Nonetheless, this is not an issue that can be avoided. Peace in Lebanon must be a priority and the situation there is deeply worrying. Yesterday’s car bomb in Beirut shows that there are those who want to reignite religious divisions and so prevent change in the country. There has to be absolute Arab will to ensure that Lebanon does not slip back into civil war. It must start with an unequivocal condemnation of this weeks’ statement by the leader of Hezbollah that it would “never” disarm.
The Middle East is at a crossroads. There is an expectation of change. This summit promises to address that expectation — and by itself becoming a vehicle for Arab reform. Proposed changes in the way the League operates will impact enormously in the long term on Arab civil society, the most important being the establishment of an Arab parliament, initially of four parliamentarians from every member state but intended to become a permanent assembly elected by full franchise. Just as important in practice is the proposed change in League decisions on major political issues based on consensus to voting by simple majority, the establishment of a troika of present and immediate past and future countries holding Arab summits to monitor and oversee League activities. In future, no one Arab government will be able to prevent Arab action. The mood in the Arab world is for reform. This summit may set the path to that reform.
