A real test of President Bush’s credibility will be when he meets Prime Minister Sharon today. Last year at this time, Bush went beyond the role of mediator and broker by ceding basic Palestinian rights and land directly to Israel. Naturally enough, Sharon is hoping for more such American generosity.
Sharon’s pledge to go ahead with the construction of 3,500 additional houses in the West Bank settlement of Maale Adumim — a move that will largely cut the West Bank off from eastern Arab Jerusalem and will thereby leave the Palestinians with a smaller state and a capital that will not be Jerusalem — is a direct challenge to Bush and the international community. The problem is that instead of Bush taking Sharon to task, Sharon will be feted because of the Gaza withdrawal in four months’ time. Bush will simply not press too hard regarding Jewish settlements. The most he could do is to ask Sharon if he perhaps would kindly defer the Maale expansion plan until after the Gaza withdrawal. In that case, Sharon is likely to request something in return, a possible compensation package, including a green light from the Americans for Israel to build a smaller number of settlements elsewhere around Jerusalem.
To be fair to the US president, he has said the settlements will be tackled in today’s talks and that the road map calls explicitly for a freeze on settlement activity. Today would be a good opportunity for Bush, who claims that what he says in private is exactly what he says in public, to spell out loudly and clearly that settlement building is illegal. However, US support for the Gaza pullout is likely to outweigh US dissatisfaction with West Bank settlement growth. In Tel Aviv and Washington the withdrawal is being presented as one of the most fundamental concessions in Israel’s history; so it is highly unlikely Bush will ask anything additional of Sharon.
As Sharon was flying to the United States, tension was building in Israel following the killing of three Palestinian teenagers in Rafah on Saturday. The killing was the deadliest incident in the Gaza Strip since the cease-fire two months ago. The Palestinian activists stopped short of calling off the truce but have reserved the right to respond. Adding to the tension is a plan by Jewish extremists opposed to the Gaza pullout to rally at Al-Haram Al-Sharif and possibly storm the Al-Aqsa Mosque in hopes of sparking riots and causing cancellation of the pullout plan. The holy site of the demonstration, which Israeli police say they will protect, is no coincidence. It was there, at the compound housing the Dome of the Rock and the Al-Aqsa, which Sharon visited four years ago as an opposition leader and so sparked the flames of the intifada. Sharon knew then he had begun something significant; Jewish extremists are now hoping for more of the same.
Sharon would like a reaffirmation of what Bush said in April last year: Israel will not be expected to give up large West Bank settlements in future peace deals. Sharon has since taken that line of support a step further with the Maale Adumim expansion. He knows the president’s tone will not be one of disapproval.
