NEW DELHI, 19 April 2005 — After 57 years of acrimony, distrust and tension between India and Pakistan even a handshake between leaders of the two countries is regarded as “historic”.
Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf shook a lot of hands during this weekend’s “informal” India visit, but there was no breakthrough on the contentious issue of Kashmir. None was expected.
A carefully-worded joint statement issued yesterday by Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh and Musharraf said the peace process was “irreversible”. It is also painfully slow.
On April 18, 2003, then Indian Premier Atal Behari Vajpayee called for a new beginning with Pakistan. “Will this 50-year-old bloody game end or not?” he asked. People in India and Pakistan, especially Kashmiris, are still waiting for an answer.
That winning peace takes far longer, and is infinitely more complicated, than winning a war is evident from the sluggish progress. Yet, over two years, India and Pakistan have held numerous bilateral meetings and restarted transport links, including the first bus link between the two Kashmirs in nearly 60 years.
Now they have pledged to boost economic and trade ties, and allow greater movement of people and goods over the cease-fire Line of Control (LoC) that bisects Kashmir.
India’s Manmohan Singh was clear that enduring peace and strong economic ties with Pakistan are essential for a stable, prosperous South Asia.
“South Asia has the potential to emerge as the most dynamic powerhouse of the world given its hugely-talented human and abundant natural resources.
There is no reason why the largest concentration of poor people in the world should be in South Asia,” he told Musharraf.
As for Kashmir, the two leaders agreed to continue discussions “in a sincere, purposeful and forward-looking manner for a final settlement”.
Musharraf called yesterday for an amicable resolution to Kashmir, warning that it could “erupt” in the future under “different leadership and a different environment”.
Over breakfast with Indian editors he spoke of an “out-of-the-box solution” for Kashmir, that involved analyzing issues of independence, self-governance, autonomy, joint control and joint management. Musharraf had read his audience well, for it was the stuff of good headlines.
In the end, both sides promised “flexibility” but maintained their stated positions. Pakistan insists the Kashmir dispute can only be solved on the basis of the Kashmiri people’s right to self— determination. India says it is impossible to redraw borders and there will be no change in sovereignty.
“I keep hearing boundaries cannot be altered. At the same time, the LoC cannot be accepted as a final solution,” Musharraf said. “The military option is not an option anymore. Coercive diplomacy is also not an option anymore.”
The general, however, seemed far more open and congenial than he was four years ago during a failed summit with Vajpayee. He attributed “his change of heart” to the changed world order after the Sept. 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States.
The international community is focused on economic development, and it is conflict resolution not conflict management that is important, he said. Two years ago, Vajpayee said the Iraq war had “changed everything” and a re-engagement with Pakistan must be seen in the context of the altered world situation.
Analysts said that if both countries agree that Kashmir is at the heart of the problem, something India was unwilling to admit in the past, and they also agree that they haven’t found a solution in more than half a century, then they should be open to a neutral mediator.
India has always been opposed to international or third-party intervention in Kashmir. Yet, both India and Pakistan look to the United States to rein in the other when it comes to Kashmir.
The rivals are wooed on fairly equal terms by the US, who will willingly ply both with fighter jets. Pakistan is a favored ally in the US war against terror, while India with its booming economy evenly balances the growing clout of China.
Analysts said the international community must be consistent in its concerns over India-Pakistan relations. Kashmir is quickly forgotten when the theater of war shifts to Afghanistan or Iraq.
Musharraf’s visit set the tone for future, positive talks, but was also a reminder of the high stakes for peace in Kashmir.
India and Pakistan have fought two of three wars over Kashmir and were on the brink of a fourth clash in 2002. Reverting to that earlier period of hostility isn’t just a threat to the region, it is also an undeniable setting for the world’s first nuclear war.
