Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invitation to the Palestinians and Israelis to meet in Moscow along with United States, European Union and UN representatives is, on the face of it, an extremely promising move. His aim is to restart the stalled Middle East peace talks and deserves to be welcomed warmly. The talks, suggested for later this year, would surely concentrate minds and build upon the dialogue that is already occurring between Palestinians and Israelis.
The sponsorship of Moscow, Washington and Brussels along with the UN, for the renewed negotiations and their willingness to underwrite and guarantee any settlement that might emerge, looks to be the only way forward. Putin’s visit to Cairo yesterday, Israel today and Palestine tomorrow represents the most high-profile involvement of Moscow in the region for many years.
There is, however, a danger that the Russian re-engagement with the Middle East and specifically with a resolution of the Palestinian tragedy may not be quite all that it seems to be. US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited Moscow earlier this month and annoyed her hosts by criticizing the state of Russian democracy. George Bush, in Russia next month for celebrations marking the end of World War II, will perhaps be more conciliatory. The Middle East peace settlement will undoubtedly be high on the two presidents’ agenda and maybe Putin will have returned home from the region with some positive proposals which will take the negotiations forward. All of this would be excellent. If, on the other hand, he has merely used his Middle East visit to steal a march on his American counterpart and try to obtain leverage against Washington in a renewed superpower contest, then there is a risk that the whole peace process could be undermined.
Forty years ago, the old Soviet foreign office often proved itself astonishingly inept in its dealings with the Arab world. In those days it sought to involve Arab allies in the Cold War, backing and supporting anyone who, it thought, might cause headaches for the Americans. It must be hoped that the Kremlin now has a better team of Middle East experts at its disposal than did the old Soviet state, the passing of which former KGB chief Putin recently regretted.
It is not that a reassertion of Russian influence in the region will not be welcome; it is that the reassertion could be made at the risk of Palestinian wishes and the Middle East peace process. The Kremlin must not be tempted to play international politics and thus jeopardize the fragile gains that have already been made. Palestinians believe that, like the Europeans, the Russians are more sympathetic to their cause. Nevertheless the Russians must not abuse that confidence by seeking to use it for their own larger ends. President Putin should understand that if he demonstrates statesmanship in helping guide Israel and Palestine to a just and lasting peace, the rewards that Russia will earn in the region will far exceed any satisfaction he might gain from simply tweaking George Bush’s nose.
