All the opinion polls may still show that his Labour Party is set for a historic third consecutive term of office, but British Prime Minister Tony Blair has just had one of the toughest weeks of his political life. Openly and repeatedly called a liar by the main opposition Conservative Party of Michael Howard, the government finally released the previously secret advice from its top law officer, which allowed Blair to tell the British Parliament that it was correct within international law for the UK to join the Americans in the Iraq invasion.
For two years the government had refused to reveal what Attorney General Lord Goldsmith had initially said about the legality of attacking Iraq. It maintained that like any other legal advice, it was privileged. The formal release of Goldsmith’s original document, after it had already been leaked, has made the Blair government look rattled and defensive. Yet having finally read it, some commentators have wondered what all the fuss was about because they detect no smoking gun. The Conservatives, however, have been quick to contrast Goldsmith’s tortuously balanced legal analysis of the options with the definitive backing for military action that he gave ten days later, the Conservatives allege after pressure from Blair. The premier has appeared exasperated by the opposition’s highly personal attacks on him. He has even been defended by his political rival, Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown. The Conservative tactic is clearly to further undermine the already-dented confidence that voters appear to have in the prime minister.
Yet though Michael Howard may be reflecting much voter opinion when attacking Blair as untrustworthy, it is a high-risk strategy to use the word “liar”. Most voters think all politicians will say whatever they have to be elected and that includes Howard and his Conservatives. Many also however feel distaste at such a personal attack, even if they actually agree with the allegation.
In many ways neither main party is doing as well as the smaller Liberal Democrats, who polls suggest with up to 24 percent of electoral support, are in their strongest position in years. The LibDems who, unlike the Conservatives, opposed the Iraq invasion from the beginning, have steered clear of the name calling, yet appear to be benefiting from the damage to Blair’s trustworthiness caused by the Conservative attacks. Some commentators are predicting a doubling of the LibDems’ 51 seats but this is to overlook the steep challenge faced by any third party in the British first-past-the-post system. The LibDems need to win those seats from both the Labour and Conservative parties.
The predictions are that this election will be decided in marginal constituencies and the lower the turnout the worse it will be for Labour. Blair is warning his core supporters that if they do not bother to vote, Thatcherite Conservatives will return to power. While this threat ignores Blair’s own political debt to Margaret Thatcher, it does play to general disquiet about the uncharismatic Michael Howard, one of Thatcher’s least popular ministers.
