Will Lebanon be punished for bias toward Assad?
Leanese Foreign Minister Adnan Mansour confused everyone at the Arab League because while the latter was looking into granting the Syrian opposition its country’s empty seat at the League, Mansour requested reinstatement of the Syrian regime. What happened to the “dissociation” policy in which Lebanon had pledged to be neutral with regards to the Syrian struggle? And why was the relationship with Saudi Arabia made so tense?
Lebanon is in line of fire because of the ongoing war in its neighboring Syria. The domestic atmosphere too is tense because of the parliamentary elections, which may not even be held. These two reasons are enough to understand the stirred up relationship between Lebanon and the Gulf.
Talks of alienating Lebanese employees in Gulf countries and rumors of withdrawing financial deposits are all part of the psychological war marring the country, which seems like it is on death row awaiting its turn!
The beneficiaries of pushing Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries to have a dispute with Lebanon are the regime in Syria and its allies in Lebanon. Hezbollah thinks that the fall of Assad in Damascus is almost inevitable. Among the alternative options is expanding the party’s role in Lebanon and imposing dominance on whatever it can add to its strongholds from nearby Syrian towns and areas that are mainly pro-Hezbollah communities or Christian.
Since the last hour of Assad’s regime in Syria is ticking away more quickly, ridding Lebanon of Saudi influence will make it easier for parties like Hezbollah and Aoun’s Christian movement to expand and fill the vacuum. The controversy on Syria among Lebanese parties has taken roots within local affairs especially regarding involvement with Assad’s regime. The most dangerous aspect of it is Hezbollah’s move to speak frankly. Hezbollah admitted that its militias are crossing the borders and fighting in Syria on the call to protect nearby Syrian towns. The withdrawal of Syrian troops from areas along the border with Lebanon for the sake of letting Hezbollah militias occupy these areas and create a new situation, has made it more dangerous.
Samir Geagea, one of Hezbollah’s prominent rivals and head of the Lebanese Forces, argued against Hezbollah’s claim that the latter was fighting the Al-Nusra Front in Homs so it does not have to fight in Beirut. Geagea said, “These are (unaccepted) statements. That which must fight (Al-Nusra) or any other extremist outfit in Beirut, Hermel, Nabatieh, Zahle, Akkar or other (Lebanese areas) is the Lebanese state (supported) by the entire Lebanese people exactly like what happened with (Fatah Al-Islam) in Nahr Al-Bared. The state itself fought terrorism there and the people, even if Hezbollah was excluded, were behind (the state).”
Geagea also warned, “Hezbollah’s actions in Syria will drag Al-Nusra Front into Lebanon.”
Leaving Lebanon for one party means one thing: Drawing the map of West Syria upon what best serves Assad, Iran and Hezbollah.
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