When a head of state flies from his capital to take personal command of a military operation, is it a sign of decisiveness or in fact the final throw of the dice for his regime? Syria's President Bashar Assad may indeed not have actually flown to Aleppo, despite reports in some state media, but the fact that such a move should even be suggested is significant.
Wednesday’s four monstrous blasts in the center of Syria’s second city, occurred in an area that was supposedly well-secured by government forces. Saadallah Al-Jabari Square has close by it, not only a prestigious officers’ club and the high-rise city hall but also other important buildings including hotels and offices. Pictures of the devastation make it clear that, for four different vehicles to have breached a tight security cordon, at least one of them loaded with a ton of high explosives, something must have gone seriously wrong.
Were the bombers allowed into the area by sympathetic soldiers? Or is the Syrian army’s discipline and cohesion breaking down? Or could it be that this terrible devastation was caused by the Assad regime itself, which was accused of perpetrating some of the first bombings in the capital, Damascus?
On balance, this last possibility must be ruled out. The last thing that Assad wishes the world to see now is any indication that he is finally losing control of his country’s commercial center. Indeed, he has ordered up yet more troops and armor to Aleppo, to drive the rebels out of the areas they hold. It is more likely that the bombing, which some have linked to Al-Qaeda elements — the Free Syrian Army initially appeared uncertain about itself claiming credit for the attacks — demonstrates that Assad’s forces are being pushed on to a back foot.
The battle for Aleppo has been building up since July. Both sides appear to subscribe to the saying that whoever holds this merchant city, controls the rest of Syria. Initially it seemed that the army was content to contain areas occupied by the rebels and bombard them with its vastly superior air and ground firepower. Only after hotbeds of resistance had been reduced to rubble, would it risk sending in ground troops and its Shabiha militias, to mop up, in their customary murderous fashion.
Yet it is clear that the tactic has not worked. Moreover it appears that the rebels have been expanding to assert a presence elsewhere in the city and proving hard to winkle out from these new enclaves. Areas that Assad’s generals claim to have retaken, are still subject to rebel activity. What might, amongst military planners in Damascus two months ago, have seemed to be a simple repeat of the bloody Homs bombardment at the start of the year, has proved to be far more difficult and complex.
Rebels are dying, along with a large number of civilians but the government forces are taking casualties too. The battle for Aleppo, like the civil conflict throughout most of Syria, seems to have become a matter of attrition. Any chance that the UN and Arab League special envoy to Syria,
Lakhdar Brahimi could persuade both sides to honor any sort of cease-fire seems out of the question. The bloody tragedy being endured by the Syrian people must continue, until Assad sees no way out except by negotiation, by which time the Free Syrian Army is likely to be in no mood to stop its struggle, until it marches into Damascus and all Assad’s thugs surrender.
Assad’s problem becomes ever clearer. Despite his powerful military machine and despite the weaponry still being supplied by his friends in Moscow and maybe also now, by the Iranians, he cannot break the Free Syrian Army. Its fighters’ combination of cold fury and dogged will-power, their realization that they cannot go back to the days of oppressive dictatorship makes them virtually un-defeatable. They know that Assad simply cannot butcher the majority of the Syrian population. The regime cannot win this struggle. They can only delay the inevitable defeat. And with every new day of savagery, the chances of the regime’s minority of supporters finding a secure place in the new Syria that will emerge, are becoming hazier. Perhaps that is one of the most alarming elements. The soldiers and militias who have nailed their colors to Assad and his vicious regime, know they have little option but to fight on. They have become die-hards. The tragedy is that many thousands of innocent Syrians may also die, all too easily, before the far-flung battlefields of Syria fall silent.
Editorial: Die-hard horrors in Syria
