Saudi investments to aid cash-strapped Pakistan

A Pakistani vendor arranges his stall near vehicles covered with snow during a snowfall in Murree, some 65 km north of Islamabad, on January 5, 2019. (File/AFP)
Updated 17 February 2019

Saudi investments to aid cash-strapped Pakistan

  • At the heart of the investment is a reported $10 billion refinery and oil complex in the strategic Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea
  • Riyadh and Islamabad, decades-old allies, have been involved for months in talks to hammer out details of the deals in time for the high-profile visit

DUBAI: A record investment package being prepared by Saudi Arabia for Pakistan will likely provide welcome relief for its cash-strapped Muslim ally, while also addressing regional geopolitical challenges, analysts say.
At the heart of the investment is a reported $10 billion refinery and oil complex in the strategic Gwadar Port on the Arabian Sea, the ultimate destination for the massive multi-billion dollar China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which lies not far from the Indo-Iranian port of Chabahar.
Two Saudi sources have confirmed to AFP that heir apparent to the Gulf kingdom’s throne, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will visit Islamabad shortly, without giving a date.
And a number of major investment deals are expected to be signed during a visit, officials from both countries have told AFP.
Riyadh and Islamabad, decades-old allies, have been involved for months in talks to hammer out details of the deals in time for the high-profile visit.
“The outcome of the talks so far has been very positive and this is going to be one of the biggest-ever Saudi investments in Pakistan,” a Pakistani senior finance ministry official told AFP.
“We hope that an agreement to this effect will be signed during the upcoming visit of the Saudi crown prince to Pakistan,” said the official, requesting anonymity.
The Wall Street Journal reported last month that both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, Islamabad’s biggest trading partner in the Middle East, have offered Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan some $30 billion in investment and loans.

Riyadh investments

Riyadh investments are expected to provide a lifeline for Pakistan’s slumping economy which was downgraded in early February by S&P ratings agency from a B to a B-, Saudi economist Fadhl Al-Bouenain said.
“Saudi investment to Pakistan comes within an economic aid package aimed at relieving the stress of external debt and a shortage of foreign currency, besides boosting the sluggish economy,” Bouenain told AFP.
The OPEC heavyweight also aims to achieve strategic and commercial goals with investments in infrastructure and refinery projects, he said.
Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partner, the UAE, have already deposited $3 billion each in Pakistan’s central bank to help resolve a balance of payments crisis and shore up its declining rupee.
They have also reportedly deferred some $6 billion in oil imports payments as Islamabad has so far failed to secure fresh loans from the International Monetary Fund.
Khan has already visited Riyadh twice since taking office in July and in October attended a prestigious investment conference widely boycotted by other political and economic figures after the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
Khan also visited Saudi rivals Qatar and Turkey, as well as China seeking investments.
“One of the goals for Saudi Arabia expanding investments in refining worldwide is to secure market share and sustainable exports in the face of international competition,” Bouenain said.
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih visited Gwadar in January and inspected the site for the proposed oil refinery at the deep sea port, just 70 kilometers (45 miles) away from its Iranian competitor, Chabahar.
He was quoted by local media as saying the kingdom was studying plans to construct a $10 billion refinery and petrochemicals complex in Gwadar.

Petrochemicals projects

Like most oil suppliers, the world’s top crude exporter has been investing heavily in refinery and petrochemicals projects across the globe to secure long-term buyers of its oil.
A pipeline from Gwadar to China would cut the supply time from the current 40 days to just seven, experts say.
Developed as part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative with investments worth some $60 billion, Gwadar is being billed as a regional industrial hub of the future, easily accessible for Central Asia, Afghanistan, the Middle East and Africa.
“Pakistan needs a rich partner to enter as a third party besides China, capable of injecting needed cash,” Bouenain said.
But so far China has rejected other partners for the corridor that seeks to connect its western province Xinjiang with Gwadar, including Saudi Arabia and UAE, said James M. Dorsey, a senior fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
This is despite calls by Khan “for the Chinese investments to be restructured to include agriculture and job-creation sectors and not only in infrastructure,” Dorsey told AFP.
Any Saudi investment in Gwadar will also have geopolitical dimensions, Dorsey said.
Iran late last year inaugurated Chabahar which provides a key supply route to landlocked Afghanistan and allows India to bypass its historic enemy Pakistan.
India has seen Chabahar as a key way both to send supplies to Afghanistan and to step up trade with Central Asia as well as Africa.
But Riyadh is not expected to get involved in any Indo-Pakistani rivalry and the kingdom also has major strategic energy deals with New Delhi, where demand for oil is growing fast.
Indeed in April, the Saudis signed a $44 billion deal to build a huge refinery and petrochemicals complex in western India.


WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Keeping things in balance

Updated 08 December 2019

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Keeping things in balance

  • The over-compliance will result in cuts of 1.7 million bpd

Brent crude rose above $64 per barrel after OPEC+ producers unanimously agreed to deepen output cuts by 503,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a total 1.7 million bpd till the end of the first quarter of 2020.

The breakdown is that OPEC producers are due to cut 372,000 bpd and non-OPEC producers to cut 131,000 bpd.

Current market dynamics led to this decision as oil price-positive news outweighed more bearish developments in the US-China trade narrative that has weighed on oil prices throughout the year, with US crude exports rising to a record 3.4 million bpd in October versus 3.1 million bpd in September.

OPEC November crude oil output levels at 29.8 million bpd show that producers were already overcomplying with its current 1.2 million bpd output cuts deal by around 400,000 bpd. 

The over-compliance will result in cuts of 1.7 million bpd, especially when Saudi Arabia continues to voluntarily cut more than its share.

This makes the agreed 1.7 million bpd output cuts pragmatic since it won’t taken any barrels out of the market.

It isn’t a matter of OPEC making room in the market for other additional supplies from non-OPEC sources, as OPEC barrels can’t be easily replaced.

Instead, this is about avoiding any oversupply that might damage the global supply-demand balance.

Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman has effectively kept his promise and managed to smoothly forge a consensus among OPEC and non-OPEC producers.

He has also successfully managed the 24-country coalition of OPEC+ including Russia in reaching an agreement.

Despite suggestions otherwise in recent coverage of the Vienna meeting, the deeper cuts announced on Friday have nothing to do with the Aramco IPO. Let’s remember this meeting was scheduled six months ago and the IPO has been in the works for much longer.

The Aramco share sale did not target a specific oil price. If that was a motivating factor it could easily have chosen another time.