With the Lebanese protests continuing well into their second month, French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to help the country by convening a group of friendly nations that are interested in its stability. Macron wants the International Support Group (ISG) for Lebanon to send a strong message to the Lebanese political class, pressing it to address the demands of the protesters, quickly form a credible government and implement reforms. This way, Lebanon will have the opportunity to receive the investments promised during the Cedre conference in Paris in April 2018.
The proposed French initiative signals its concern about the stability of Lebanon. The problem is that the political class in Lebanon has ignored the well-being of the people for decades because of its corrupt ill-management, which benefits only the few in power and their supporters. The social and economic crises in the country — the worst since the civil war — have pushed young people to the streets. The protesters are fueled by anger over this corruption and the sectarianism of the politicians who have governed the country for so long.
This anger pushed demonstrators to constantly ask for the entire political class to leave power, and this message was understood internationally. The international community is aware that the Lebanese government has failed for more than 18 months to carry out the reforms Cedre’s main investors expected in order to start helping Lebanon.
France’s special envoy in charge of Cedre, Pierre Duquesne, has repeatedly visited Lebanon, warning Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his government of the dangers of not going ahead with the expected reforms. He explained many times that the interest of international donors and investors — and the $7 billion they pledged — will not last forever. But the political class has failed to carry out any reforms.
People have taken to the streets because they are fed up with a political system that is based on sectarianism, nepotism and corruption. They are asking for basic rights such as electricity, clean water, garbage removal and recycling. These could have been dealt with quickly had the government implemented the reforms requested by the Cedre conference.
When the Lebanon uprising started and forced Hariri to offer his resignation, France sent an envoy, Christophe Farnaud, to have talks with all the political actors, including Hezbollah’s Ammar Al-Moussawi and commander of the Lebanese army Gen. Joseph Aoun. Farnaud also asked to see representatives of the protesters, but they refused as they wanted to remain independent of foreign interference. Farnaud’s mission to Lebanon was wrongly described by many in the media and the public as mediation, when it was actually only an informative visit.
In Lebanon, France is widely considered to be a potential mediator. Its diplomats are allowed to see and talk to Hezbollah, while Europe has diplomatic relations with Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran, although many French officials realize how bad the impact of Iranian policies are in the region. Farnaud’s impression upon his return was that tension is increasing — that the Lebanese situation is dangerously sliding toward total collapse with a possible violent outcome. He has warned all political actors, including Hezbollah, against resorting to violence and stressed on the need to protect protesters.
The Lebanese situation is dangerously sliding toward total collapse with a possible violent outcome.
Randa Takieddine
After Farnaud’s return from Beirut, he met with his American and British counterparts, David Schenker and Stephanie Al-Qaq, respectively. France wants to move ahead with mobilizing the international community to help Lebanon. Macron wants to organize an ISG meeting to push the Lebanese to form a credible, efficient government that will quickly implement the Cedre reforms. All the countries discussing Lebanon agree that no blank checks should be handed out; in other words, no funds if reforms are not implemented.
France is keen on mobilizing support for Lebanon because it is convinced that a destabilized Lebanon is not in the interests of either the region or the international community. The question remains whether a meeting of the ISG within the coming two weeks can do anything for Lebanon if no independent government is formed, with capable and honest new ministers as requested by the protesters. With Hezbollah and its Christian allies, represented by President Michel Aoun and his son-in-law and Foreign Minister Gebran Bassil (a most-hated figure among the protesters), insisting on a political government with approximately the same people in charge, it is difficult to see how France can succeed in its mobilization efforts.
The ISG meeting should aim to give a strong signal to the Lebanese political leaders that, if they do not take into account the legitimate demands of the protesters and form an efficient and credible government, collapse and chaos will follow. However, the political class seems to be in complete denial of what the people on the streets are striving for.
- Randa Takieddine is a Paris-based Lebanese journalist who headed Al-Hayat’s bureau in France for 30 years. She has covered France’s relations with the Middle East through the terms of four presidents.
