WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices remain relatively flat

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices remain relatively flat
OPEC’s monthly report for March reflects its desire for a tight oil market strategy. (AFP)
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Updated 13 March 2021

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices remain relatively flat

WEEKLY ENERGY RECAP: Oil prices remain relatively flat
  • Steep rise in the value of the US dollar in recent weeks was not able to push down oil prices

Oil prices have remained relatively flat since the beginning of March. There is a huge resistance that has kept the price of Brent crude slightly below the $70 per barrel mark. On the week closing, Brent crude decreased slightly and ended the week at $69.22 per barrel. WTI crude prices ended the week lower at $65.61 per barrel.

With the US dollar at its strongest value since November 2020, like many dollar-denominated commodities oil prices have been inversely correlated. The steep rise in the value of the US dollar in recent weeks wasn’t able to push down oil prices, which remained well above $65 per barrel for both international benchmarks Brent and WTI.

According to the weekly figures from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the shutdown in many US refineries has squeezed gasoline inventories and pushed up gasoline prices. US gasoline inventories fell by 11.9 million barrels. On the other hand, US crude oil inventories rose beyond expectations, up 13.8 million barrels to 498.4 million barrels. A few weeks ago, it was 460 million barrels. This shows that the local US market continues to feel the effects of the February snowstorms that stalled refining and forced production shutdowns in Texas.

OPEC’s monthly report for March reflects its desire for a tight oil market strategy, at least for the second quarter. The report shows the recovery in oil demand will be focused on the second half of the year as the impact of the pandemic has continued. Hence, the OPEC forecast is that oil demand will rise by 5.9 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2021 to reach 96.3 million bpd, with most consumption appearing in the second half.

OPEC made a lower oil demand recovery adjustment, mainly due to extended measures to control COVID-19 in many key consumer markets. In addition, elevated unemployment rates in the US slowed the recovery process. In contrast, oil demand in the second half of the year is adjusted higher, reflecting expectations for a stronger economic recovery, with the positive impact of vaccination rollouts.

OPEC reported total commercial oil stocks among OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) countries fell by 11.3 million barrels in January 2021. OECD oil inventories were 138.7 million barrels higher than the same month a year ago, 92.2 million barrels above the latest five-year average, and 125.7 million barrels above the (2015-2019) average.

OPEC reported that hedge funds and other money managers remained positive about the oil price outlook. Speculators further raised their combined futures and options net long positions linked to international benchmarks Brent and WTI to their highest in more than a year. The backwardation structure curve steepened further last month, as the market rebalancing process and decline in global oil stocks continue.


Good COVID care added to KSA’s investment attraction, says Sedco chief

Good COVID care added to KSA’s investment attraction, says Sedco chief
Updated 20 September 2021

Good COVID care added to KSA’s investment attraction, says Sedco chief

Good COVID care added to KSA’s investment attraction, says Sedco chief
  • Saudi Arabia is shifting toward cleaner energy, even though oil will continue to be an important component of our economy, says Abu Aker

DUBAI: Sedco Capital, one of Saudi Arabia’s leading investment groups, takes a global stance as it expands outside its Jeddah base.

Samer Abu Aker, Sedco chief executive officer, told Arab News: “In terms of regional exposure, we are actually global in the sense that we invest in Asia, in Europe, in the Middle East and America.”

“Our strategy is split between developed markets, emerging markets, passive strategies, active strategies in different asset classes — listed equities, private markets, direct investment into companies and in real estate as well,” he added.

Sedco, founded in 1976, has offices across the world, in Dubai, London and Luxembourg, giving it a view across global publicly listed and private asset sectors.

After two decades in financial services, Abu Aker joined the company in 2011 after Sedco was relaunched as a standalone asset management group.

The current Sedco focus is more on developed markets, with the US a favorite as American asset classes have responded well to pandemic stimulus packages that curtailed its recession.

The US government provided almost $6 trillion in coronavirus relief, while the Federal Reserve slashed its overnight benchmark overnight interest rate to near zero and is pump money into the economy through monthly bond purchases.

Last year, Sedco invested in what Abu Aker calls “jewel” real estate assets in Pennsylvania Avenue, home to the White House, in the heart of Washington DC.

The (coronavirus disease) pandemic presented opportunities, he said.

The money manager said: “Definitely it has shifted the position of our portfolios over the course of the last 18 months.

“For example, while we have maintained a strategic asset allocation based on our views on different economies and the different markets, with the pandemic coming into play we have seen the more active role of the US government both on the monetary side but also the robust fiscal spending that they have that they have put in place.”

Sedco is also actively involved in other big markets, in China and in Europe, for example, to take advantage of economic recovery as vaccines are rolled out round the world.

“As the global cycle marches on through the latter part of the year, led by developed countries, chances are that investors’ preferences might change as the worst news is priced in and valuations become more appealing,” he said.

The firm said in its August monthly bulletin that pressure on the supply of goods caused by pandemic bottlenecks “should eventually subside in the second half of 2022 as economic mobility in the US and Europe eventually decouples from the spread of the delta variant.”

But the firm adds that it does not expect core prices in these markets to quickly return to “pre-pandemic levels as a result of more fundamental forces at play,” such as wage growth.

Investors have cast a close eye on China’s crackdown on the tech sector and other industries this year, which has seen billions in fines handed out after antimonopoly investigations.

This regulatory campaign from Beijing has wiped as much as $1.5 trillion from Chinese stocks.

But Abu Aker said: “While we still retain a cautious exposure on emerging markets as a whole, we are closely watching China as it is our belief that the authorities don’t mean to cross the line of losing foreign investors’ trust. Overall, we see positive prospects in Asia.”

But Sedco remains a Saudi Arabia-based firm, and investment in the Kingdom will always be a big focus. He thinks the government measures taken during the pandemic have made it a more attractive place to invest.

The Kingdom’s second-quarter economic data showed growth of 1.1 percent quarter-on-quarter. The oil sector grew by 2.5 percent quarter-on-quarter on the back of the unwinding of the 1 million billion barrels per day voluntary output cut that lasted from February to April.

Abu Aker said: “If you would speak to any of the managers and investment companies in Saudi Arabia you will hear nothing but positive surprises from the actions and the role that the government has played.”

“We’ve never felt that there’s any lack of liquidity within the banks. They are still rich in cash, and the central bank has supported them with all the liquidity they need to support the economy, both on the government side and in the private sector.”

He added: “We have seen a good rebound as well on the residential real estate side, and this is mainly driven by structural reforms where the government has been promoting Saudi home ownership and of course mortgages.”

Other government policies will also affect investment sentiment in coming years. The move to encourage multinational companies to have their regional headquarters in Riyadh is a positive one, Abu Aker said.

“I don’t think those multinational companies should have waited for such an announcement to come out from the Saudi government for them to actually make the move. I think today if we look at the Saudi market, it is the largest market not only in the GCC but it is also one of the largest markets in the Middle East,” he said.

Sedco also believes that the $3.2 billion Shareek initiative, launched in March, to stimulate greater private sector investment in Vision 2030 projects will pay dividends.

The chief executive said: “I think it’s one more step toward engaging the government more with the private sector and increasing the ties between the government and the private sector.”

“It’s going to avail more financing, more grants to corporates and to the private sector to allow them to capture some of the opportunities they could not get funding for through the normal channels.”

The core of Sedco’s investment philosophy lies in the complementarity between Shariah principles and the current enthusiasm for ESG — ethical, social and governance — investment practice.

“We have run our own internal analysis and research, and the interesting finding that we came up with is that there’s a lot of commonalities between the Shariah guidelines and ESG — environmental, social and governance — or ethical investing.”

Shariah and ethical guidelines overlapped 90 percent of the time, he said, making “one unified investment philosophy” that helps set Sedco’s investment strategy.

“We don’t just talk the talk, we also walk the walk,” Abu Aker said.

The Sedco investment philosophy is not just governed by Shariah’s conventional stance of refusing to invest in sectors, such as tobacco, alcohol or gambling, that are frowned upon under Islam, but also by a wider commitment to prudent, ethical financial principles.

The firm signed up to the UN Principles for Responsible Investment charter six years ago, the first Saudi firm to do so.

Abu Aker sees no conflict in being a Saudi institution, based in an economy that is still mainly driven by oil revenues, and espousing ESG standards when some in the global financial industry are steering away from hydrocarbon assets on ethical grounds.

He said: “Saudi Arabia is shifting toward cleaner energy, even though oil will continue to be an important component of our economy.”

“But we understand that the future is more toward alternative and cleaner energy. Right now, it’s a transitional period, and it will take some time, but it’s heading in the right direction.”


Cryptocurrencies slide as market selloff deepens

Cryptocurrencies slide as market selloff deepens
Updated 20 September 2021

Cryptocurrencies slide as market selloff deepens

Cryptocurrencies slide as market selloff deepens
  • Digital currencies gaining popularity among Indians in smaller cities

RIYADH: Prices of cryptocurrencies plunged on Monday as concerns over the spillover risk to the global economy from Chinese property group Evergrande’s troubles rippled over to wider markets.

Bitcoin tumbled 7.33 percent to $43,804 at 4:29 p.m. Riyadh time. Its rival Ether, the coin linked to the Ethereum blockchain network, fell 8.74 percent to $3,050.45, according to data from CoinDesk.

The loss in the value of cryptocurrencies comes at a time when institutional interest in the space has surged and some investment banks have ramped up their forecasts for cryptocurrencies in the coming months.

“Their fate seems a little tied to equities at the moment, and the price action is incredibly similar too,” said John Marley, CEO of forexxtra, a London-based FX consultancy. 

Ether price

Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou, managing director of JPMorgan said that the fair value of Ether is much lower than its current price.

According to a set of measurements based on the network’s activity, it calculated the value of the digital coin at $1,500, 55 percent below its market price.

One of the reasons cited was that Ethereum was not unique anymore, and it faced stiff competition from other chains such as Solana and Avalanche.

“We look at the hash rate and the number of unique addresses to try to understand the value for Ethereum. We’re struggling to go above $1,500. There is a question mark here. The current price is expressing an exponential increase in usage and traffic that might not materialize,” he stated.

 

Lawsuit

In the midst of an ongoing lawsuit with the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Ripple's legal team said they have no plans to settle with the SEC.

They are confident that SEC President Gary Gensler will be convinced that pursuing the case is to pick winners and losers in the crypto space based on innovation.

"Ripple’s legal team told Fox Business they have no plans to settle with SEC over lawsuit on XRP, confident they can show Gary Gensler in pursuing the case is picking winners and losers in the crypto business to the detriment of innovation,” Charles Gasparino tweeted.

 

Indians embrace crypto

Indian citizens are embracing cryptocurrencies to invest and earn extra money after the pandemic, according to reports from the regional media.

But what is even more interesting is that this growth has been greater in smaller cities, where interest in cryptocurrency is at its peak.

The profile of these participants was also interesting, as they are highly educated and open to diversifying their investment portfolios and not only focus on Bitcoin.

 A local exchange, Wazirx, has reported astonishing levels of new customers coming from these small towns, classified as Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities.

“Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities have driven almost 55 percent of the total user signups on Wazirx in 2021, thereby overtaking Tier 1 cities, which demonstrated a signup growth of 2,375 percent,” Wazirx CEO Nischal Shetty was quoted as saying in local media reports.


Saudi top 10 banks see robust growth in financing and deposits

Saudi top 10 banks see robust growth in financing and deposits
Updated 20 September 2021

Saudi top 10 banks see robust growth in financing and deposits

Saudi top 10 banks see robust growth in financing and deposits

RIYADH: Saudi Arabia's top 10 banks saw robust quarter-on-quarter growth in financing and deposits in the second quarter of 2021, Zawya reported, citing management consulting firm Alvarez & Marsal (A&M)'s KSA Banking Pulse.

Core operating income increased by 8.4 percent, compared to 1.2 percent in the first quarter of the year, in what is considered the fourth increase in a row, while loans and advances (L&A) increased by 13.1 percent and deposits by 12.6 percent.

L&A and deposit growth were primarily supported by the merger of National Commercial Bank and SAMBA to form Saudi National Bank (SNB), according to the report.

Operating expenses rose by 13.7 percent quarter-on-quarter and impairments jumped by 81.6 percent, affecting the second quarter's overall operating efficiency for the banking sector. This affected net profit for the top ten banks in the Kingdom.

Aggregate net income decreased over the same period by 8.1 percent to SR11 billion ($2.93 billion), while the fall in net profit was partially offset by a 11.1 percent increase in net interest income.

The top 10 banks in the report are SNB, Al Rajhi Bank, Riyad Bank , Saudi British Bank, Banque Saudi Fransi, Arab National Bank, Alinma Bank, Bank Albilad, Saudi Investment Bank and Bank Aljazira.


Blossoming Saudi fragrance market to hit over $3.8bn by 2030

Blossoming Saudi fragrance market to hit over $3.8bn by 2030
Updated 20 September 2021

Blossoming Saudi fragrance market to hit over $3.8bn by 2030

Blossoming Saudi fragrance market to hit over $3.8bn by 2030

DUBAI: The Saudi fragrance market is poised to reach $3.8 billion by 2030, according to a market report, with an annual growth rate of 8.2 percent from last year.

India-based P&S Intelligence said a growing trend in grooming and personal care will drive this performance of the Kingdom’s perfume sector, which in 2020 was valued at $1.74 billion.

The predicted growth follows a challenging year for industry, as manufacturing plants were shut down due to the COVID-19 pandemic.

The report said luxury product bifurcation will witness the fastest growth in the sector, as more consumers opt for high-end brands.

The parfum category, which uses the highest concentration of essential oils, took most of the market share in the past.

Demand for natural and organic perfumes will also increase, the report said, amid increasing brand consciousness among consumers.


Innovation zone aims to transform Cairo’s Bab al-Azab 

Innovation zone aims to transform Cairo’s Bab al-Azab 
Updated 20 September 2021

Innovation zone aims to transform Cairo’s Bab al-Azab 

Innovation zone aims to transform Cairo’s Bab al-Azab 

RIYADH: Egypt's Sovereign Fund plans to transform the historic Bab al-Azab area in Cairo’s Salah Al-Din Al-Ayoubi Citadel into the first integrated innovation zone in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

The fund signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Bidayat Investment company, under which the company will explore opportunities for cooperation in developing Bab Al-Azab and turning it into an innovation center to embrace Egyptian youth creators, founding partner Rachid Mohamed Rachid told Asharq Business.

The center also aims at embracing startup owners in fields such as engineering design, furniture manufacturing, jewelery, fashion, as well as films, he said.

Bidayat Investment Group has already established innovation centers in several international markets, such as Italy, France and Turkey.