Israel and Hamas on the verge of something — but what?
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Amid the outbreak of a fourth wave of the coronavirus disease, most Israelis’ top concerns are the rollout of the third booster shot and the debate over starting the school year in less than two weeks’ time despite the rising number of COVID-19 cases.
Once again, shortly after another round of hostilities with Hamas in Gaza — one that sowed destruction and claimed the lives of hundreds of people, mainly Palestinians — Palestinian issues in general and those of Gaza in particular have all but disappeared from the public conversation. But Israel ignores these at its peril, and violent clashes in recent days between Palestinian protesters and Israeli soldiers on the Israel-Gaza border have served as an abrupt reminder of the fragility of the situation.
Since the latest round of extensive hostilities in May this year, a new Israeli government has been formed, and although the underlying approach to the Palestinian issue has not changed dramatically since Naftali Bennett took over the reins of power, it has so far shown some degree of much-welcome pragmatism, getting on with the business of governing rather than pushing any ideological agenda.
This shift in approach, accompanied by a change of administration in Washington, a stronger sense of realism, an understanding on the part of both Israel and Hamas that another war has no political benefits for either, and the active involvement of regional powers leading to diplomatic efforts aimed at ensuring a long-term cease-fire, will hopefully also produce an easing of Israel’s harsh blockade of Gaza that continues to inflict immeasurable suffering on this tiny strip of land and its 2 million inhabitants.
In recent weeks we have seen some modest diplomatic progress that might bring about change along the Israel-Gaza border. On Thursday, Bennett will meet with President Joe Biden at the White House, and soon afterward is due to visit Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, whose country is bound to play a crucial role in reaching any understanding between Israel and Hamas, as it has done in the recent past. Egypt has a distinct interest in bringing long-term calm to the situation, as it has borders with both Gaza and Israel, and has its own terrorism problem that is hindering its ability to reopen the Sinai Peninsula to international tourism.
These high-level meetings, together with an agreement reached with Qatar last week to transfer aid money to Gaza’s poorest families, might at last bring some positive news to this small, stricken piece of land and its inhabitants. For too long the Gazan people have been caught between the hardships of Israel’s inhumane blockade that is depriving them of their most basic rights and necessities, and life under their oppressive and human rights-abusing Hamas government.
A more permanent cease-fire is necessary for any improvement of their living conditions and should be negotiated with a sense of urgency. Yet any agreement that could change fundamentally the state of affairs between Israel and Hamas remains elusive, as it would depend on too many factors within both Israeli and Palestinian domestic politics, let alone an international commitment to promote and sustain it.
For now, Israel has eased some of its restrictions on the Gaza Strip, and is allowing more movement of people and goods across the border, an expansion of the fishing zone, and the implementation of projects sponsored by the international community in the areas of food, water, medicine and fisheries.
However, this is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the sanctions currently in place. The civil-military body that facilitates Israel’s occupation and blockade, COGAT (Coordination of Government Activities in the Territories), has added the caveat that even these limited steps to improve living conditions in Gaza are “conditional upon maintaining the stable security situation in the area.” In other words, the well-being of Gazans, including their livelihood, access to medical treatment beyond the Strip, freedom of movement, and access to proper food, clean water, sanitation and electricity, remains hostage to relations between the leaderships of both sides.
Israel’s security establishment understands that the deprivation inflicted by its short-sighted approach to the Palestinians holds great danger for the future, but it has been trapped for years in a destructive political discourse between the two antagonists. Moreover, what is seen as an easing of restrictions in the eyes of the Israeli authorities is far from enabling a resumption of any semblance of normal life, including economic activity, and functioning health and education systems.
The long-term closure, destruction of infrastructure, and what can only be described as illegal collective punishment by blockade, is not only immoral, but also has failed to prevent Hamas and Islamic Jihad from improving their military capabilities and reaching targets deeper inside Israel; neither has it made a reality of Israel’s wishful thinking that the Gazan people might one day rise against Hamas and topple it.
Any agreement that could change fundamentally the state of affairs between Israel and Hamas remains elusive, as it would depend on too many factors within both Israeli and Palestinian domestic politics, let alone an international commitment to promote and sustain it.
Yossi Mekelberg
However, there is welcome news that, in a move handled by the UN’s World Food Programme, 100,000 Palestinian families will receive a monthly $100 instead of the usual suitcases stuffed with cash that mostly fail to end up in the hands of those who desperately need it. This will alleviate some of the hardships endured by the poorest Gazans, and in a transparent way that will allay Israel’s fears of the money being diverted to militant groups. Such a mechanism, with the added involvement of the US and Egypt, should serve in the first instance as a confidence-building measure that could be emulated and extended to other areas of cooperation, and reduce levels of friction between the two sides.
These positive developments should be welcomed with cautious optimism, but they cannot obscure the gravity of the situation in the Gaza Strip, and the desperation that has already resulted in an outbreak of violence along its border fence and two rockets launched at Israel from Gaza for the first time since the May conflict — alleged revenge for the deaths of four Palestinians killed by undercover Israeli forces in an operation in the West Bank a few days earlier. Both events underline the necessity to create a diplomatic initiative with momentum and tangible results on the ground, one that is able to overcome the forces who are still committed to armed conflict and not peaceful solutions.
- Yossi Mekelberg is professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House. He is a regular contributor to the international written and electronic media. Twitter: @YMekelberg