Libya’s fate in the balance as UN-led peace efforts sputter

Special Fighters loyal to Libya's UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) stand atop a tank in the town of Tarhuna, about 65 kilometres southeast of the capital Tripoli on June 5, 2020. (AFP/File Photo)
Fighters loyal to Libya's UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) stand atop a tank in the town of Tarhuna, about 65 kilometres southeast of the capital Tripoli on June 5, 2020. (AFP/File Photo)
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Updated 05 October 2021

Libya’s fate in the balance as UN-led peace efforts sputter

Fighters loyal to Libya's UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) stand atop a tank in the town of Tarhuna, about 65 kilometres southeast of the capital Tripoli on June 5, 2020. (AFP/File Photo)
  • Attempts to restore order in the war-torn North African nation fail to make headway
  • Government of National Unity is tasked with carrying Libya into elections in December

DUBAI: Since dictator Muammar Gaddafi was toppled from power in 2011, Libya has been mired in chaos. A decade on from the protests that led to his downfall, the oil-rich country is wracked by political instability, violence, economic chaos, and, since last year, an explosion in COVID-19 infections.

On Sept. 21, Libya’s eastern-based parliament passed a vote of no confidence in the country’s Government of National Unity, which was installed earlier this year. The provisional body, established to replace two rival administrations that had long fought each other, is supposed to carry the country into national elections scheduled for December 24.

Thus, just as Libya seemed to be making progress toward peace and stability, it again risks sliding into civil war, with fierce clashes breaking out between rival factions in the capital Tripoli.

Foreign involvement is arguably the main reason why Libya has been unable to move on and establish a unified, stable administration. By sponsoring their preferred side in the conflict, experts say external actors have periodically added fuel to the fire.

“The main problem that stands against Libya’s stability is foreign interference and the existence of foreign forces and mercenaries fighting on its soil,” Dalia Al-Aqidi, a senior fellow at the Center for Security Policy in Washington, D.C., told Arab News.

“In a country like Libya, achieving security and political stability requires the unity of the different major political players. However, when you have local politicians with foreign agendas and loyalties, it makes it difficult to unite around one shared goal.”

Indeed, experts believe Libya has become little more than a playground for competing foreign interests, with the spoils of war — oil, arms contracts, and strategic influence — up for grabs.

“The extra energy to conquer others has come from foreign support and it is this external support for different groups, patrons, and clients that has kept the conflict going, as has the war economy of smuggling, corruption, bribery, protection rackets, control of critical infrastructures like airports and seaports and oil terminals,” Jonathan Winer, a scholar at the Middle East Institute and a former US special envoy for Libya, told Arab News.

The only way such a corrupt and factious system is replaced, says Winer, is with a “unified civilian government that divides up the spoils in a way that is inclusive and provides something for (nearly) everyone.”




Libyan demonstrators lift placards and national flags during a rally in Martyrs Square in the capital Tripoli, to protest the deteriorating political, security, and living conditions in the country, on October 2, 2020. (AFP/File Photo)

Things did not look so bleak for Libya when Gaddafi fell. Inspired by events in neighboring Tunisia and Egypt, young Libyans took to the streets in Feb. 2011 demanding an end to his 42-year rule. But when his security forces launched a deadly crackdown, the movement grew into an armed revolt.

Fearing the regime would slaughter the protesters to maintain its grip on power, the US, France, and Britain sent warplanes to support the uprising. As the conflict turned against him, Gaddafi fled Tripoli but was soon captured and killed by rebels on Oct. 20, 2011.

In Aug. 2012, the rebel-led National Transitional Council handed power to an authority known as the General National Congress, which was given an 18-month mandate to establish a democratic constitution.

Instability persisted, however, with a string of major terrorist attacks targeting foreign diplomatic missions. In May 2012, an assault on the US consulate in Libya’s eastern city of Benghazi left US ambassador Chris Stevens and three American staff dead.

Responding to the threat, a Libyan-American military officer Khalifa Haftar launched an offensive against armed groups in Benghazi in May 2014. He named his forces the Libyan National Army and soon won the backing of Arab countries that saw him as their best possible partner in curbing the spread of political Islam, most notably the Muslim Brotherhood.

Although they have both supported UN mediation efforts in Libya, France and Russia have also offered Haftar their backing, the latter allegedly green-lighting the use of mercenaries, a claim that Moscow denies.




Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh (L) gives a press conference; Libyan General Khalifa Haftar (R) writing on a paper at his desk in Benghazi. (AFP/File Photos)

Elections were held in June 2014, producing the eastern-based parliament, or the House of Representatives (HoR), dominated by anti-Islamists. However, in August that year, Islamist militias responded to the result by storming Tripoli and restoring the GNC to power. The Haftar-affiliated HoR took refuge in the city of Tobruk.

As a result, Libya was left with two governments and two parliaments.

In Dec. 2015, after months of talks and international pressure, the rival parliaments signed an accord in Morocco establishing a Government of National Accord. In March 2016, GNA chief Fayez Al-Sarraj arrived in Tripoli to install the new administration.

However, the HoR did not hold a vote of confidence on the new government and Haftar refused to recognize it.

Then, in Jan. 2019, Haftar launched an offensive into oil-rich southern Libya, seizing the region’s capital, Sabha, and one of the country’s main oilfields. In April, he ordered his forces to advance on Tripoli. By the summer, however, with Turkey deploying troops to defend the Tripoli administration, the two sides had reached a stalemate.

What had begun as a popular uprising had degenerated into a proxy war, predominantly centered around competing Turkish and Russian interests in the region.

A UN-brokered ceasefire deal was finally reached in Geneva on Oct. 23, 2020, followed by an agreement in Tunis on holding both parliamentary and presidential elections in December this year.




Fayez Al-Sarraj, former Libyan Prime Minister (GNA) speaking in 2019. (AFP/File Photo)

The Government of National Unity, which is headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, was approved by lawmakers on March 10, 2021.

However, on September 9, Aguila Saleh, the parliament speaker, ratified a law governing the presidential election that was seen as bypassing due process and favoring Haftar. Subsequently, parliament passed the aforementioned no-confidence vote in the unity government, casting the upcoming elections and the hard-won peace into uncertainty.

As a result of this prolonged political discord and internecine strife, ordinary Libyans have seen their living standards collapse and critical infrastructure crumble. Earlier this year the dinar crashed and consumer prices surged.

Fuel shortages and power outages have become commonplace, and even clean water is rare in a country that was once one of Africa’s richest and remains the continent’s second-biggest oil producer after Nigeria.

“Libya is a damaged society but not a wretched one,” Karim Mezran, director of the North Africa Initiative and a resident senior fellow with the Rafik Hariri Center and Middle East Programs at the Atlantic Council, told Arab News.

“The biggest problems are the COVID-19 pandemic and the fact that the country serves as a major hub of African migration to Southern Europe. Yet, with a modicum of stability, Libya is and should be a wealthy state, given the copious oil and other natural resources it has combined with a relatively small population.”

Instead of emerging from the Gaddafi era with greater openness, economic growth, and productive engagement with the international community, Libya has experienced lawlessness and institutional collapse, becoming something close to a failed state.




Former Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi salutes soldiers during a five-hour military parade in Tripoli on Sept. 7, 1999, to mark the 30th anniversary of the Libyan Revolution that brought him to power. (AFP/File Photo)

“A decade of violence and unrest, a struggling economy, and the COVID-19 pandemic have exacerbated the challenges faced by all those living in the country,” Tom Garofalo, the International Rescue Committee’s Libya country director, said in a recent statement.

“Today, an estimated 1.3 million people are in need of humanitarian assistance — a 40 percent increase compared to 2020.”

Experts agree it is leadership that is lacking in Libya. In Winer’s view, the UN needs to be “much stronger, firmer, tougher, and steadier” if it hopes to stabilize the country.

“There needs to be consequences when countries say one thing, like promising to support peace and withdraw their forces and do another, like supporting their clients and keeping their mercenaries and military support in place,” he said.

Jan Kubis, who was appointed UN special envoy to Libya and head of the UN Support Mission in Libya in January, is yet to openly press all parties to force a resolution. “Though it is hard to blame him, given Russian and Turkish reluctance to move forward with removing their mercenary forces, as they promised to do,” Winer said.

Undoubtedly, there has been significant progress in the past year toward resolving Libya’s divisions. Still, many Libya experts, including Al-Aqidi, believe making sure elections take place is paramount.

“December elections represent the best opportunity for Libya to finally achieve peace and stability,” she told Arab News. “It is the one and only way for Libya to recover from violence and chaos.”

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Twitter: @rebeccaaproctor

 


US, Iran chief negotiators to start nuclear talks in Qatar

US, Iran chief negotiators to start nuclear talks in Qatar
Updated 13 sec ago

US, Iran chief negotiators to start nuclear talks in Qatar

US, Iran chief negotiators to start nuclear talks in Qatar
DOHA: Chief negotiators from the United States and Iran began indirect talks in Qatar on Tuesday, bidding to remove obstacles that have stalled attempts to revive a landmark nuclear deal.
The indirect negotiations headed by US special envoy Robert Malley and Iran’s Ali Bagheri come after more than a year of European Union-mediated talks in Vienna on a return to the 2015 agreement between Tehran and world powers.
The Doha talks also come just two weeks before US President Joe Biden’s first visit to the region since taking office, when efforts to curb Iran’s nuclear ambitions will be high on the agenda.
“Indirect messages have been exchanged between the parties involved,” a diplomat in the region told AFP.
Iran’s state news agency IRNA published a photo of Bagheri meeting with the European Union’s coordinator for the talks, Enrique Mora.
EU foreign affairs spokesman Peter Stano said earlier that the Doha discussions were the start of a process to “unblock” the long-running Vienna negotiations that have stalled since March.
“We managed to unblock the process and we are going to move forward, and as a first step at this stage we have these proximity talks,” he said in Brussels.
The 2015 deal gave Iran sanctions relief in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program to guarantee that Tehran could not develop a nuclear weapon — something it has always denied wanting to do.
The deal has been hanging by a thread since 2018, when then US president Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from it and began reimposing harsh economic sanctions on America’s arch-enemy.
The delegations are in separate rooms and communicating via intermediaries. The US and Iran do not have diplomatic relations.
US President Joe Biden’s administration has sought to return to the agreement, saying it would be the best path ahead with the Islamic republic, although it has voiced growing pessimism in recent weeks.
Malley earlier met Qatar’s Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani to discuss “joint diplomatic efforts to address issues with Iran,” the US embassy in Doha tweeted.
Bagheri meanwhile met Qatar’s foreign ministry secretary-general, Ahmad bin Hassen Al-Hammadi, Qatar’s foreign ministry said.
Sheikh Mohammed also discussed the Iran talks with his French counterpart Catherine Colonna in a phone call on Tuesday, the official Qatar News Agency said.
Qatar hopes the indirect talks will culminate in “positive results that contribute to the revival of the nuclear deal signed in 2015,” the foreign ministry said.
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said during a visit to Tehran on Saturday that the Iran-US talks would be held in a Gulf country to avoid confusion with the broader talks in Vienna.
Qatar, which has better relations with Iran than most Gulf Arab monarchies, also hosted US-Taliban talks before the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan last year.
The Vienna talks began in April 2021 but hit a snag in March following differences between Tehran and Washington, notably over Iran’s demand that its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps be removed from a US terror list.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran program at the Washington-based Middle East Institute think tank, called the Doha talks a “moment of reckoning” for the nuclear process.
“The Iranians and the Americans both seem to believe the talks in Doha represent a sink-or-swim moment for US-Iran nuclear negotiations,” he wrote in an analysis.
The timing appears good, with Iran likely to want a deal before US congressional elections in November, where Biden’s Democrats are predicted to lose seats and possibly lose interest in the nuclear talks, Vatanka said.
High oil prices and the lack of spare capacity were also an opportunity for Iran to push for relief from its crippling economic sanctions, he added.
US sanctions imposed since 2018 have extended to Iran’s oil exports, but Biden and the EU are keen to see a dramatic fall in energy prices after they were sent surging by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, tweeted: “Having the two key protagonists in one place is a necessary ingredient for diplomacy to succeed.
“But a breakthrough is far from assured.”

Mikati continues consultations on draft government as delay extends

Mikati continues consultations on draft government as delay extends
Updated 11 min 47 sec ago

Mikati continues consultations on draft government as delay extends

Mikati continues consultations on draft government as delay extends
  • FPM and Lebanese Forces continue to block PM-designate’s attempts to put an end to the political blockage

BEIRUT: Lebanese Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati, who has been tasked with forming a new Lebanese government at the end of his non-binding parliamentary consultations on Tuesday, said that he “went over the opinions of the MPs and we will take most of what they said into consideration, but what matters is that national interest prevails.”

Mikati said that the opinions shared by the MPs “are in the national interest, even if from different angles.” 

He hoped to be able to form a government “that can carry out its duty and continue what the previous government has started, especially with the IMF, the electricity plan and the file of maritime border demarcation,” hoping that things “would take shape in a proper way.”

If Mikati succeeds in forming this government, it will be his second government under President Michel Aoun’s term; if not, he will remain a prime minister-designate as a caretaker.

The second day of consultations saw the head of the Free Patriotic Movement, Gebran Bassil, issue an ambiguous position. 

Bassil confirmed that “the bloc isn’t interested in participating in the new government but we didn’t meet as a bloc yet to confirm the matter.”

He opposes Mikati and the FPM did not name him in the formation of a government.

He said: “We told Mikati why we don’t agree with the government formation. There’s a real problem with the credibility of the designation and we raised the issue with him, but we overcame this problem given the country’s situation.”

Bassil said that the movement is “against any government stripped of its powers, and we emphasized that it’s important for the government to deal with important files, including the file of the governorship of the central bank.”

At the same time, Bassil denied that he had made a “demand or imposed a condition before Mikati.” 

He said that “making amendments to the current government is a wrong bet,” adding: “We are against a presidential gap and we will prevent it from happening.”

Bassil’s statement was remarkable, especially when he said that “Mikati’s designation lacks credibility” but decided to turn a blind eye given the country’s situation.

The Free Patriotic Movement bloc and the Lebanese Forces bloc did not propose Mikati to form a government during the binding parliamentary consultations held by President Aoun last week. 

However, a source close to Mikati pointed out that the two Christian parties do not fully represent all Christians and that some MPs with popular representation nominated Mikati.

The source said that “the FPM is insisting on having an efficient government that isn’t stripped of its powers for the purpose of implementing a political agenda, as the president’s bloc wants to appoint people affiliated with the party to critical positions before the end of the term, including appointing a new governor for the central bank.”

Head of the Kataeb party Samy Gemayel warned against “the danger of adopting a no-government logic before the presidential elections.” 

He believes that “wasting time in these dangerous circumstances the country is going through is deadly for the Lebanese who are suffering on all levels.” 

Gemayel emphasized “the need to form an independent government as fast as possible to stop the collapse.”

After meeting with Mikati, MP Oussama Saad said that “Lebanon needs a government that can safely transport the country from the current political reality to a new reality capable of facing challenges and crises.” 

He added: “The presidential elections are imminent. Can we elect a new president who is independent of the internal and external axes? Are the internal blocs controlling the state’s decision ready to carry out a rescue project?”

MP Jihad Al-Samad ruled out the possibility of forming a new government “as it is hard to form a government with the ongoing petulance and selfishness.” 

He said that he demanded “that the current government be activated, either by regranting it the parliament’s confidence to revive it, or by expanding the concept of caretaking.”

MP Bilal Houshaymi said that “the decision not to participate in the government is wrong. The previous government implemented some reforms that should be completed and all blocs should cooperate to form a government. People put their trust in the parliament and we should seek to get out of the axis of hell.”

The Armenian MPs bloc expressed its interest in participating in the government. MP Hagop Pakradounian said: “A new government should be formed as soon as possible and we should avoid the game of conditions and counter-conditions. We hope that Mikati will have a governmental lineup in the coming couple of days.”

Head of the Lebanese Forces Media and Communication Department Charles Jabbour ruled out the possibility of a new government formation “because the formation of governments in Lebanon usually takes between two to three months at least, noting that the new government, if formed, will have four months to be able to assume its role.”

Regarding the position of MP Gebran Bassil, the political rival of the Lebanese Forces, Jabbour told Arab News: “The stated position is different from the implicit one. Bassil has said before that competent governments ended and a political government is what is needed. He refuses that the caretaker government remains until the end of the term because the FPM continues to hold on to appointments that are in its interest and wants to be part of the government in case of a presidential gap.”

Mikati is now working on a draft government expected to be submitted to the president so they can both sign the decree of its formation. The current ongoing prevention of its formation is being caused by the parliamentary blocs representing significant political forces that have decided not to participate in the government. 

Few expect this to change. Charles Jabbour said that “the blocs that didn’t nominate Mikati to form a government and won’t participate in the government will surely not grant it confidence in the parliament.” 

He added that the matter might depend on the ministerial statement but “I think that there will be a difficulty facing the formation of the new government.” 


Algeria jails Bouteflika-era energy minister for 20 years

Algeria jails Bouteflika-era energy minister for 20 years
Updated 37 min 22 sec ago

Algeria jails Bouteflika-era energy minister for 20 years

Algeria jails Bouteflika-era energy minister for 20 years
  • The Sonatrach officials were accused of prioritising Italian firm Saipem over an Emirati firm for a contract
  • Two other Bouteflika-era ministers had jail terms on corruption allegations upheld

ALGIERS: An Algerian appeals court on Tuesday upheld a 20-year prison sentence for corruption against Chakib Khelil, energy minister for a decade under longtime president Abdelaziz Bouteflika, the APS news agency reported.
The court also fined him two million dinars (about $13,600) and upheld prison sentences of five and six years respectively against Mohamed Meziane, ex-head of state oil and gas giant Sonatrach, and his deputy Abdelhafidh Feghouli.
The Sonatrach officials were accused of prioritising Italian firm Saipem over an Emirati firm for a contract to construct the Arzew gas complex in the western region of Oran — at Khelil’s behest.
The officials were also charged with “granting undue privileges,” abusing their positions and “concluding contracts in violation of laws and regulations,” APS reported.
Two other Bouteflika-era ministers had jail terms on corruption allegations upheld on appeal on Tuesday: Djamel Ould Abbes for six years and Said Berkat for four, the news agency said.
The court also sentenced two representatives of Saipem in absentia to five years in prison.
Saipem said in a statement that it intended to challenge the decision in Algeria’s supreme court.
In 2013, the Algerian judiciary had issued an international arrest warrant for Khelil over a case involving contracts between Sonatrach and foreign companies, including Saipem, a former subsidiary of Italian energy giant ENI.
Prosecutors in Milan had accused Saipem of paying bribes to obtain contracts in Algeria, and the subsidiary was fined in 2018, before being cleared by an appeals court in 2020.
Khelil, now 82, quit his post in 2010 and moved to the United States after being associated with a scandal involving high-ranking Sonatrach officials who were later jailed for corruption.
He returned to Algeria in 2016 after the cases were dropped — then left again after Bouteflika’s resignation in 2019 that sparked a string of investigations into graft by his officials.


Over 100 murders in Syria camp since Jan 2021: UN

Over 100 murders in Syria camp since Jan 2021: UN
Updated 28 June 2022

Over 100 murders in Syria camp since Jan 2021: UN

Over 100 murders in Syria camp since Jan 2021: UN
  • The Al-Hol camp is increasingly unsafe and the child detainees are being condemned to a life with no future
  • There have been "around 106 murders since January last year in the camp" and "many" of the victims were women, said the UN resident coordinator in Syria

GENEVA: More than 100 people, including many women, have been murdered in a Syrian camp in just 18 months, the UN said Tuesday, demanding countries repatriate their citizens.
The Al-Hol camp is increasingly unsafe and the child detainees are being condemned to a life with no future, said Imran Riza, the UN resident coordinator in Syria.
Al-Hol, in the Kurdish-controlled northeast, was meant as a temporary detention facility.
However, it still holds about 56,000 people, mostly Syrians and Iraqis, some of whom maintain links with the Daesh group, which seized swathes of Iraq and Syria in 2014.
The rest are citizens of other countries, including children and other relatives of Daesh fighters.
Some 94 percent of the detainees are women and children, Riza, who has visited Al-Hol a handful of times, told reporters in Geneva.
“It’s a very harsh place and it’s become an increasingly unsafe place,” he said.
There have been “around 106 murders since January last year in the camp” and “many” of the victims were women, he added.
“There’s a great deal of gender-based violence... There’s a lot of no-go areas.”
The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said violence was spiking in the camp, with another murder Tuesday — the seventh since June 11.
Out of 24 people murdered inside the camp this year, 16 were women, the Observatory added.
Riza said there were around 27,000 Iraqi detainees, 18-19,000 Syrians and around 12,000 third-country citizens.
While there have been some repatriations to Iraq, many other countries which “need to be accepting their people back” were refusing to do so.
“The majority of the population there are children. They are innocent. If you leave them in a place like Al-Hol, you’re essentially condemning them to not having a future.”
Riza said that when boys get to 12, 13 and 14, they are taken away from their families and put into a different center, where their future is one of radicalization and joining a militia.
“The only solution is emptying the camp,” he said.
Syria’s civil war erupted in 2011 after the violent repression of protests demanding regime change.
It quickly spiralled into a complex conflict that pulled in numerous actors, including militant groups and foreign powers. The war has left around half a million people dead and displaced millions.
Riza said the levels of need in Syria were unprecedented and increasing, with 14.6 million people requiring humanitarian assistance — up 1.2 million since 2021 and the highest since the civil war began.
Riza said the country was facing a “cascade of crises,” with the key factor now the economic decline dragging down socio-economic conditions.
“The impact on Syrians is devastating and families are increasingly pushed into destitution,” he said, with more than 90 percent of the population estimated to live below the poverty line.


Renewable energy in Middle East to reach 92 percent of region's targets by 2030: Report

Renewable energy in Middle East to reach 92 percent of region's targets by 2030: Report
Updated 28 June 2022

Renewable energy in Middle East to reach 92 percent of region's targets by 2030: Report

Renewable energy in Middle East to reach 92 percent of region's targets by 2030: Report
  • A GEM report found that Arab countries are constructing solar and wind energy plants with a predicted total capacity of 73.4 GW

LONDON: Renewable energy generation projects in the Arab countries will reach nearly 92 percent of the region's total targets by 2030, according to a Global Energy Monitor report published Tuesday.The Arab region currently produces more than 12 gigatonnes of wind and solar energy, the report said.

In 2013, the Arab League clean energy initiative pledged to increase the region's installed renewable power generation capacity from 12 gigatonnes to 80 gigatonnes by 2030.

The report found that Arab countries are constructing solar and wind energy plants with a total capacity of 73.4 gigatonnes, which is nearly five times the region's current renewable energy production.

These projects include 114 solar power plants and 45 wind power plants.

The report also said that Egypt produces the most renewable energy, with 3.5 gigatonnes, followed by the UAE with 2.6 gigatonnes, Morocco with 1.9 gigatonnes, Jordan with 1.7 gigatonnes, and Saudi Arabia with 0.78 gigatonnes.

The UAE leads the region in utility-scale solar energy generation, with 2.6 gigatonnes of capacity.

Egypt is the region's wind leader, with 1.6 gigatonnes of electricity generated by wind farms.Oman, Morocco, and Algeria, on the other hand, are pursuing more than 39.7 gigatonnes of potential solar and wind energy projects.

These countries are expected to top the list of renewable energy producers in the near future, the report concluded.