There is no doubt that, in Pakistan, Gen. Pervez Musharraf has won the referendum giving him another five years in power by a massive margin. The real question, however, is how many Pakistanis voted. That is the figure that would make the referendum legitimate or otherwise.
The government media suggest a turnout of around 70 percent. The opposition puts it at 5 percent. One of them has to be lying; possibly both. A figure between 25 and 30 percent is being suggested by some foreign media observers. If true, it is a far from discreditable result, given the 36 percent turnout in the last parliamentary election, in 1997. No one then suggested that figure discredited the result. In any event, Musharraf is genuinely popular among many sections of the population for his efforts to stamp out corruption — and they add up to far more than a mere five percent of the electorate.
On the other hand, some independent observers reported very quiet polling stations in Karachi and Lahore, which would indicate that the opposition’s boycott calls had some success — although, again, to what extent is impossible to say. If the 1997 turnout was under 36 percent and the turnout this time not much different, the primary conclusion has to be that most Pakistanis are politically apathetic. One thing, though, rings bells. The impossible diverge between the government and opposition estimates recalls the 1984 vote when another military leader, Zia-ul Haq, felt the need for electoral legitimacy. Officials put the vote then at 98 percent in Zia’s favor and turnout between 70 and 80 percent, whereas the opposition had it in single figures. The point is that the single-digit figure is now accepted as the right one.
Without independent foreign observers to settle the matter this time, it is impossible to decide one way or the other, although logic suggests that the boycott called by Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif should have been limited to those who enthusiastically support them. The last election result suggests that it is no more than 36 percent of the electorate.
There may be many things wrong with the referendum, but the justification put forward by the opposition for boycotting the vote — that there is no constitutional place for a referendum — misses a few points. The old constitution is nonexistent at present. If the opposition is genuinely attached to democracy then they have no grounds to oppose such a vote. A referendum is the simplest form of assessing the public’s views and it has long been internationally accepted as a legitimate means of opening a new chapter in a nation’s political life.
They boycotted it because they were afraid of the result. Their arguments are legalistic pedantry, but with a sour streak. They want to play Pakistani politics the old way, where it has too often been the democracy of bribery and feudal control.
Bhutto and Sharif still constitute a residual threat to Musharraf; loyalty to traditional leaders runs deep in Pakistan, even when evidence of such leaders’ gross corruption is manifest. But Musharraf has secured the presidency for the next five years; and possession is nine points of the law. Unless he makes a mess of it, their views will increasingly count for less. That is what worries them.
