The seizure of over 500 theatergoers by some 40 Chechen militants in the heart of Moscow and to terrify them with threats of mass execution is terrorism. There is no other word for it. These are innocent people who have nothing to do with the conflict in Chechnya. Many of those are not even Russians — not that that matters. They were doing nothing more offensive than enjoying a good night out.
But it is not difficult to understand why the militants struck, although understanding is no justification. This was an act born in desperation. Chechnya is itself a country held hostage by President Putin and the Russian military — and the world largely ignores that fact. In part, this strike is an attempt to refocus international attention on the plight of the Chechens. The militants appear well-aware that there is a very good chance that they will not get out of this alive. They describe themselves as a suicide unit, prepared to sacrifice their own lives for their country’s freedom.
That makes the situation all the more dangerous, not just for the hostages but for the Chechen people who will suffer horribly if this crisis ends in a bloodbath. Unlike in other conflict situations in Europe or even in Palestine, there are no international journalists around to tell the rest of the world what crimes against humanity are being committed there. The Russian military can, and do, kill with impunity; and there is precious little legal system to bring them to account for it.
The danger is that the crisis will end violently. Hostage taking is nothing new in Chechnya’s long struggle for freedom from Moscow, and too often it has ended in the hostage’s deaths. In 1995, a mass hostage taking left over 100 civilians dead. In this case, moreover, the hostage takers are serious and determined men. They appear ready to kill. Their threat to blow up the theater in a week if their principal demand — that Russia withdraw its forces from Chechnya — is not met sounds ominously real. They will probably start executing people before that to pressurize the Russians.
But there is no chance that Putin will agree — which means that Russian troops will storm the theater, regardless of how many civilians might die in the process. Putin will want an iron-fist response. His reputation with the Russian public, itself built on being seen to be tough on Chechens, is at stake. But a bloodbath in Moscow is not going to mollify the Russians, nor will it pacify the breakaway territory.
Moscow’s claims to have Chechnya under control were a demonstrable lie even before this crisis. The only way to resolve it and the Chechen rebellion as a whole is by Putin facing up to the fact that his war against the Chechen people is, like all wars against an entire people, unwinnable. There have be negotiations — and now, if a bloodbath is to be prevented. That will require international mediation. The trouble is that the one country that could exert significant pressure on Moscow to go down this route is the US, but not at the moment with President Bush trying to get it to lift its opposition to his proposed UN resolution on Iraq.
Maybe the EU can do something, but time is frighteningly short.
