How the Sudan crisis complicates the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over the GERD dam

Special How the Sudan crisis complicates the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over the GERD dam
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in early 2022 remains a source of friction among neighboring countries. (AFP)
Special How the Sudan crisis complicates the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over the GERD dam
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The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in early 2022 remains a source of friction among neighboring countries. (AFP)
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Updated 28 April 2023
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How the Sudan crisis complicates the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over the GERD dam

How the Sudan crisis complicates the Egypt-Ethiopia dispute over the GERD dam
  • A peaceful resolution of the row over Ethiopia’s dam may hinge on who emerges victorious in Sudan’s power struggle
  • Experts say a prolonged conflict could throw both Sudan and Egypt’s water and food security into uncertainty

LONDON: In the past two weeks the world has become used to seeing photographs of Sudan’s Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, whose forces have been locked in combat with the rival paramilitary Rapid Support Forces since April 15, dressed in battle fatigues.

On January 26, however, the country’s de-facto ruler was wearing a dark suit, blue tie, and a broad smile, in full-on red-carpet diplomat mode as he greeted Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on the runway at Khartoum airport.

It was Abiy’s first visit to Ethiopia’s northern neighbor since the 2021 coup, led by Al-Burhan, that saw the derailing of the transition to civilian rule promised in the wake of the overthrow of the 30-year regime of dictator President Omar Al-Bashir in 2019.

The two men had much to talk about, but top of the agenda for Abiy was winning Sudan’s support for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, the vast $4 billion hydroelectric project on the Blue Nile, just kilometres from Sudan’s border, that has proved controversial in the region ever since work began on it more than a decade ago.

The GERD is now 90 percent complete, and the coming rainy season will see an estimated 17 billion cubic meters of water retained in the fourth filling of the massive reservoir created by the dam.




Workers are seen walking at the site of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam  in Guba, Ethiopia, on February 19, 2022. (AFP file)

For millions of Ethiopians, half of whom have no electricity and still rely on burning wood for heat, cooking, and light, the dam is a symbol of hope, pride, and a brighter future. At a ceremony on the imposing dam in February last year, Abiy ceremoniously activated the first of its turbines, which began generating power.

When it reaches full capacity and all 13 turbines are feeding into the national power grid, the dam will boost Ethiopia’s industrialization, revolutionize the living standards of millions of its citizens, and earn the country badly needed income as an exporter of power to the region.




Ethiopia's massive hydro-electric dam project began producing electricity last year after more than a decade since construction work first started. (AFP)

Speaking at the 2022 ceremony, Abiy said: “From now on, there will be nothing that will stop Ethiopia. (The dam) will not disrupt the River Nile’s natural flow.” He noted that the start of electricity generation demonstrated “Ethiopia’s friendly attitude toward the river.”

The project was, he added, “excellent news for our continent and the downstream countries with whom we hope to collaborate.”




Ethiopia’s Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed speaks during the first power generation ceremony at the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in early 2022. (AFP)

Ethiopia has always insisted that, as the dam was designed only to generate electricity, neither Egypt nor Sudan, although both downstream, will lose any of the precious water supplied by the Nile.

But when the plan was first unveiled, it was condemned by both Cairo and Khartoum as an existential threat — both nations are utterly dependent upon the life-giving waters of the Nile, which have flowed down from the Ethiopian Highlands since time immemorial.




 A man rides a boat on the waters of the White Nile river in Sudan's Jabal al-Awliyaa area on March 11, 2023. (AFP)

More than once over the past decade Egyptian concern over the scheme has threatened to escalate into violence.

In June 2013, several Egyptian politicians were overheard live on television discussing military options to halt the dam, with proposals ranging from backing Ethiopian rebels to sending in special forces to destroy it.

In March 2021, during a visit to Khartoum four days after signing a military cooperation agreement with Sudan, Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi said: “We reject the policy of imposing a fait accompli and extending control over the Blue Nile through unilateral measures without taking the interests of Sudan and Egypt into account.”

A few days later he upped the stakes, declaring that “the waters of Egypt are untouchable, and touching them is a red line.”

No one, he added, “can take a single drop of water from Egypt, and whoever wants to try it, let him try.”




Egypt relies on the Nile for its very survival. (AFP)

As recently as March this year, Egypt’s foreign minister, Sameh Shoukry, warned that on the issue of the dam “all options are open, all alternatives remain available.”

Since then, however, Sudan’s attitude toward the dam has appeared to ease, leaving Egypt increasingly isolated in its outspoken opposition to the project.

In Sudan in January, in addition to meeting Al-Burhan, Abiy also sat down for talks with Gen. Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, known as Hemedti, the leader of the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, with whom the head of Sudan’s Sovereign Council is now locked in a bloody power struggle.




Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed (R) walks alongside Sudanese Army Chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan at Khartoum Airport during a welcome ceremony on January 26, 2023. (AFP)

A statement issued by the council after the meeting welcomed the fact that Abiy had “confirmed that the Renaissance Dam will not cause any harm to Sudan but will have benefits for it in terms of electricity.” The two countries, it added, were “aligned and in agreement on all issues regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.”

But even as he worked to allay Sudanese fears over the dam, Abiy was walking a diplomatic tightrope between Al-Burhan and Dagalo.




Sudan’s army chief Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan, right, and paramilitary leader Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo after the signing of a 2022 truce. (AFP)

In December, a framework agreement outlining a two-year transition to democracy was signed between the two generals and some Sudanese pro-democracy groups. On his visit to Khartoum in January, Abiy had supported the agreement, tweeting that he was “pleased to come back again and be amidst the wise and vibrant people of Sudan,” and adding that “Ethiopia continues to stand in solidarity with Sudan in their current self-led political process.”

But a prescient commentary in February by the head of a Khartoum think tank highlighted the tensions between the two generals.




A prolonged conflict in Sudan has the potential of posing a risk on the country's ties with Ethiopia. (AFP)

Kholood Khair, the founder and director of Confluence Advisory, told Africa Report: “When Abiy Ahmed visited Khartoum, he lent his support to the framework agreement, which favors Hemedti.

“By doing so, he is trying to get both generals on board ... they have diverging foreign policies, they have diverging income streams, they have diverging political constituencies domestically that they play to.

“Because you have that inherent divergence between the two generals, you get different and unpredictable sorts of power plays.”

Those power plays have now exploded into a conflict which Jordan-based Jemima Oakey, associate in Middle East and North Africa water and food security at London-based consultancy Azure Strategy, said has serious implications for the future management of the dam.




Jemima Oakey. (Supplied)

“Informal discussions were looking pretty positive,” she told Arab News. “From recent reports, Sudan certainly seemed to be coming to an arrangement with Ethiopia, while Egypt had begun to accept its new water reality and had begun developing adaptation measures through increasing the number of desalination plants and rehabilitating its irrigation networks.”

Now, she said, all-important regional cooperation on the management of the dam, for the benefit of Sudan and Egypt, as well as Ethiopia, may hinge on who emerges victorious from the current struggle.

In addition to generating electricity that could be supplied not only to the 60 percent of Ethiopians who currently have no access to mains power, but also to Sudan and Egypt, the dam promises to maximize agricultural yields, in Sudan especially, by ending the destructive cycle of floods and droughts caused by the seasonal variations in the flow of the Nile.




Proponents of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam argue that it could stop the destructive cycle of floods and droughts caused by the seasonal variations in the flow of the Nile in both Egypt and Sudan. (AFP)

But the only way this is going to work, Oakey noted, was “through a data-sharing agreement where water availability and water releases from the dam are clearly laid out and fairly divided between the Nile’s riparians, both through droughts and periods of high rainfall.

“(Right now) we have no idea of what the position of Hemedti on territorial disputes in the Al-Fashaga region in northern Ethiopia might be, if he might try to claim that region for Sudan, or whether he would lend support to rebel militias in Ethiopia’s Tigray region.

“Any of that could derail any agreements or understandings over access to the dam’s water flows, and really damage Sudan’s access to both water and electricity,” she added.




Ethiopian refugees gather to celebrate the 46th anniversary of the Tigray People's Liberation Front at Um Raquba refugee camp in Gedaref, eastern Sudan, on February 19, 2021. (AFP)

And she pointed out that such a development could also have serious consequences for Egypt.

“Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Egypt has been trying to expand its agriculture sector in order to become more self-sufficient in wheat production and make up for lost Ukrainian wheat imports, so they really need that water, and they need a reliable supply of it,” Oakey said.

“That’s why an agreement for water access and monitoring availability is so crucial.

“But if there’s a prolonged conflict in Sudan, that could really throw both Sudan’s and Egypt’s water and food security into massive uncertainty.”

One scenario, according to Oakey, was as unlikely as it was unthinkable, whatever happens in Sudan’s internal conflict: military action being taken by either side against the dam.

“Over the past few years there has been alarmist speculation in the media that GERD could be attacked in order to prevent its completion, but I seriously doubt that either side in the Sudan conflict would ever consider using this to secure a military advantage,” she said.

“There are now almost 73 billion cubic meters of water behind the dam. To destroy it and unleash that volume of water would inundate most of southern Sudan with catastrophic flooding, so no, no one is going to try that.”




A satellite image obtained courtesy of Maxar Technologies on July 21, 2020 shows the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam and the Blue Nile River. (AFP)

But some experts hope that nature gets the same memo.

The possibility of a catastrophic failure of the dam has been raised in several academic papers over the past few years. These have highlighted “the high risk of soil instability” around the GERD site which, as one recent study by Egyptian civil and water engineers pointed out, was “located on one of the major tectonic plates and faults in the world.”

Around that fault, they added, about 16 earthquakes with a magnitude of 6.5 or higher had occurred in Ethiopia during the 20th century.

The first and largest of the sequence of devastating quakes that struck Turkiye and Syria in February, killing tens of thousands of people and causing widespread damage, had a magnitude of 7.8.

Hesham El-Askary, professor of remote sensing and Earth systems science at Chapman University in California, told Arab News that seismic risks, rather than the current conflict in Sudan, were the real threat to the dam that the world should be focused on.




A general view of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam near Guba in Ethiopia. (AFP)

“What really bothers me now is the possibility of tectonic moves in Ethiopia, which is the most tectonically active nation in Africa,” he said.

There was, he added, also evidence that dams could “exacerbate tectonic activities and slippage.

“We saw what happened in Turkiye, when dams were opened to ease water pressure on the crust.

“With the changing climate, what Ethiopia is doing is really serious and, with the situation in Sudan, no one can guess how this will all end up.”

 

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Pakistan ex-PM Khan replaced as party head

Pakistan ex-PM Khan replaced as party head
Updated 5 sec ago
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Pakistan ex-PM Khan replaced as party head

Pakistan ex-PM Khan replaced as party head
  • Gohar Khan a ‘temporary arrangement,’ says PTI’s media spokesman
  • Imran Khan has been locked up since August while awaiting trial in several cases

ISLAMABAD: Former Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan, currently in jail facing myriad charges he says are rigged to keep him from contesting elections next year, was replaced on Saturday as head of the party he founded, officials said.

Khan launched the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf party in 1996, failing to win a single seat in an election the next year but growing rapidly to become the biggest bloc in the National Assembly following the 2018 vote, propelling him to the premiership.
He was ousted last year in a vote of no confidence brought by a coalition headed by two long-established parties that have shared power for much of Pakistan’s history, when the military hasn’t been in charge. Khan, who has been locked up since August while awaiting trial in several cases, including an allegation of leaking state documents, was replaced as party chairman by Gohar Khan, a barrister not related to Imran, a party official said.

Imran Khan. (AFP)

The change was forced after the Election Commission of Pakistan warned PTI last month they risked losing their emblem — a cricket bat — unless an internal ballot was held for party officers.
Election symbols are crucial in a country where the adult literacy rate is just 58 percent, according to World Bank data.
Khan, a former international cricketer, who captained Pakistan to World Cup victory in 1992, was barred from standing in the party poll while in prison. “This is a temporary arrangement,” said Syed Zulfiqar Bukhari, PTI’s media spokesman.
PTI is struggling against a widespread crackdown, with leading party figures either jailed or forced to leave the party.
Politicians in the South Asian country are often tangled in legal proceedings that rights monitors say are orchestrated by the powerful military, which has ruled the country directly for more than half of its history and continues to enjoy immense power.
“A PTI supporter will vote for the election symbol, for Imran Khan,” political analyst Hasan Askari Rizvi said on Saturday.
“He (Khan) remains the moral leader of the PTI.”
Also on Saturday, a hearing into a graft case Khan faces at a special court inside the jail where he is held was adjourned, with his lawyers protesting that media had been barred despite another judge ordering the trial to be open.
On Wednesday, a court quashed a graft conviction against three-time Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif, who returned from self-imposed exile in October to launch a political comeback.
Sharif is currently on bail appealing several convictions for corruption in an attempt to clear his name ahead of elections scheduled in February.
His younger brother Shehbaz Sharif came to power in the coalition that ousted Khan.

 


France, Philippines eye security pact to allow joint military combat exercises

France, Philippines eye security pact to allow joint military combat exercises
Updated 9 min 19 sec ago
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France, Philippines eye security pact to allow joint military combat exercises

France, Philippines eye security pact to allow joint military combat exercises
  • France has deployed its navy ships to the South China Sea to promote freedom of navigation and push back against Chinese expansionism

MANILA: France and the Philippines are considering a defense pact that would allow them to send military forces to each other’s territory for joint exercises, the Philippine defense chief said on Saturday after holding talks with his French counterpart.
Gilberto Teodoro Jr. said in a joint press conference with French Minister for the Armed Forces Sebastien Lecornu that they were seeking authorization from their heads of state to begin negotiations.
“We intend to take concrete steps into leveling up and making more comprehensive our defense cooperation, principally by working to get authorization from our respective heads of state and relevant agencies to begin negotiations for a status of visiting forces agreement,” Teodoro said.
“The first goal is to create interoperability or a strategic closeness between both armed forces, see how both navies work together, how air forces work together,” Lecornu said through an interpreter. The Philippines has such an agreement — which provides a legal framework for visits of foreign troops — only with the United States, its longtime treaty ally, and with Australia. Negotiations between the Philippines and Japan are also underway for a reciprocal access agreement that would allow Japanese and Philippine troop deployments to one another for military exercises and other security activities.
The Philippine and French defense chiefs agreed to deepen defense cooperation, including by boosting intelligence and information exchanges to address security threats, Teodoro said.
They agreed to sustain Philippine and French ship visits and underscored the importance of upholding international law, including the 1982 UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, he said.
That language has often been used by the US and the Philippines, along with their allies, in their criticism of China for its increasingly aggressive actions in the disputed South China Sea.
France has deployed its navy ships to the South China Sea to promote freedom of navigation and push back against Chinese expansionism. China claims virtually the entire waterway and has constructed island bases protected by a missile system in the past decade, alarming smaller claimant states, including the Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia.
Washington has repeatedly warned that it is obligated to defend the Philippines, its oldest treaty ally in Asia, if Filipino forces, ships and aircraft come under armed attack, including in the South China Sea.

 


7.6 magnitude earthquake strikes off the southern Philippines and tsunami warnings are issued

7.6 magnitude earthquake strikes off the southern Philippines and tsunami warnings are issued
Updated 41 min 34 sec ago
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7.6 magnitude earthquake strikes off the southern Philippines and tsunami warnings are issued

7.6 magnitude earthquake strikes off the southern Philippines and tsunami warnings are issued
  • The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initially said that based on the magnitude and location, it expected tsunami waves to hit the southern Philippines
  • In Japan, authorities issued evacuation orders in various parts of Okinawa Prefecture

MANILA: A powerful earthquake with a preliminary magnitude of 7.6 struck Saturday off the southern Philippine coast, prompting many villagers to flee their homes in panic around midnight after Philippine authorities issued a tsunami warning.
The quake struck at 10:37 p.m. at a depth of 32 kilometers (20 miles), according to the US Geological Survey. There were no immediate reports of major damage or casualties.
The Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initially said that based on the magnitude and location, it expected tsunami waves to hit the southern Philippines and parts of Indonesia, Palau and Malaysia. But the center later dropped its tsunami warning.
In Japan, authorities issued evacuation orders in various parts of Okinawa Prefecture, including for the entire coastal area, affecting thousands of people.
Teresito Bacolcol, the head of the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, told The Associated Press his agency advised residents along the coast of southern Surigao del Sur and Davao Oriental provinces to immediately evacuate to higher ground or move farther inland.
Owners of boats in harbors, estuaries or shallow coastal waters off the two provinces should secure their boats and move away from the waterfront, the quake agency said in its tsunami warning. Boats already at sea should stay offshore in deep waters until further advised, it said.
Based on the quake’s magnitude, Bacolcol said a 1-meter (3.2-foot) tsunami may hit but the wave could be higher in enclosed coves, bays and straits.
Villagers were fleeing their homes to safety around midnight in Hinatuan town and outlying areas in Surigao del Sur province, according to authorities and the government’s disaster-response agency, which said that it could not immediately provide specific details.
Pictures posted on Hinatuan government’s Facebook account show residents fleeing to higher ground on foot or aboard cars, trucks, motorcycles and tricycle taxis at night.
More than three hours after the quake hit, Bacolcol said there was no report of a tsunami hitting the coast from his agency’s field offices but added authorities would continue monitoring.
The Philippines, one of the world’s most disaster-prone countries, is often hit by earthquakes and volcanic eruptions due to its location on the Pacific “Ring of Fire,” an arc of seismic faults around the ocean. The archipelago is also lashed by about 20 typhoons and storms each year.


Japan looks to Saudi Arabia for ‘new forms’ of collaboration: Shikata

Japan looks to Saudi Arabia for ‘new forms’ of collaboration: Shikata
Updated 02 December 2023
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Japan looks to Saudi Arabia for ‘new forms’ of collaboration: Shikata

Japan looks to Saudi Arabia for ‘new forms’ of collaboration: Shikata
  • With COP28 talks taking place in the UAE, decarbonization is part of many countries’ objectives and green strategies

DUBAI: Japanese Cabinet Secretary for Public Affairs Shikata Noriyuki told Arab News Japan that deep ties between his country and Saudi Arabia will pave the way for more opportunities to collaborate.

“There are emerging opportunities for a new way of life,” he said. “Especially if Saudi Arabia takes a leading role in presenting this new way of life with regards to sustainability issues.”

With COP28 talks taking place in the UAE, decarbonization is part of many countries’ objectives and green strategies.

Shikata said that when Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio visited Saudi Arabia in July, it was clear that the Kingdom was on a path to transformation.

“We sense very rapid change taking place in the Kingdom. It’s very impressive,” he added.

Japan is also working on its own transformation, specifically a green one. The cabinet secretary said, however, that the change will need collaboration with the Gulf region as well as other Asian countries.

“We want to work on joint projects or investments to encourage such a green transformation in the rest of Asia,” he said. “This is kind of conducive to our vision of a free and open Indo-Pacific.”

At COP28, Japan introduced its new strategy to achieve a carbon-zero economy, which includes the idea of carbon pricing for the first time.

Japan not only will focus on the carbon emissions of major corporations, but also target zero-emission housing.

“This includes insulated windows to avoid extra heating costs,” Shikata said.

Other initiatives have been put in place, including the newly announced India-Middle East trade corridor.

“Japan is very attentive to this connectivity initiative between India and the Middle East,” he said, adding that a similar project is in the works with other Asian countries.

“We want to combine smart houses and urban transport so that we are eventually talking about smart, sustainable and carbon-neutral cities,” Shikata told Arab News Japan.

The conditions in Gaza have also been a topic of conversation at COP28, and Japan has consistently supported a two-state solution in order to realize peace.

“We have been working on the Jericho Agro-Industrial Park and trying to create jobs,” the cabinet secretary said, adding that Japan is encouraging its companies to invest. “However, with the political situation, it is very difficult to encourage investment.”

The industrial park aims to develop a fully functional and operational innovation business center in Palestine’s Jericho to improve the competitiveness of local businesses operating there.

There have been reports that Israeli strikes since Oct. 7 had damaged Japan International Cooperation Agency offices in Gaza.

However, Shikata said that once the situation in the enclave calms down, Japanese organizations will have “good motivation to go back and support reconstruction.”

* This article originally appeared on Arab News Japan, click here to read it.


Malaysia says COP28 should address ‘devastating’ climate toll of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza

Malaysia says COP28 should address ‘devastating’ climate toll of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza
Updated 02 December 2023
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Malaysia says COP28 should address ‘devastating’ climate toll of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza

Malaysia says COP28 should address ‘devastating’ climate toll of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza
  • Environment minister says Israeli occupation ‘robs’ Palestinians of their right to improve climate resilience
  • Israeli military has dropped an estimated 40,000 tons of explosives on Gaza since Oct. 7

DUBAI: The ongoing COP28 summit should address the climate and environmental impact of Israel’s onslaught on Gaza, Malaysia’s environment minister said on Saturday.

Political and business leaders from nearly 200 countries are gathered in Dubai this week for the UN’s annual meeting, which aims to address some of the most pressing points related to global warming and the climate crisis.

As world leaders are in talks over the issues, Turkish President Tayyip Erodgan, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, and Jordan’s King Abdullah have all said that discussions on climate change should not exclude the topic of Israel’s ongoing bombardment of Gaza.

Malaysia’s Minister of Natural Resources, Environment and Climate Change Nik Nazmi Nik Ahmad told Arab News that besides the humanitarian toll — with 15,000 people killed since October and many more injured or missing — the Israeli bombardment of the Palestinian enclave is also destroying the environment.

In retaliation for the Oct. 7 attack by the Gaza-based militant group Hamas, the Israeli military has dropped an estimated 40,000 tons of explosives on the 365-sq.-km territory, nearly four times more than the combined weight of the nuclear bombs dropped by the US on Hiroshima and Nagasaki in Japan in 1945.

“The unprecedented levels of assault unquestionably inflict a devastating impact on the environment,” the minister said on the sidelines of the climate summit. “Addressing this is non-negotiable.”

For the hundreds of thousands of people internally displaced by the attacks, toxic contamination from the explosives has made the air difficult to breathe and the water undrinkable.

“The world cannot ignore what is happening there — be it from a humanitarian or climate justice standpoint,” Nik Nazmi said, adding that it is resulting in “not only the Palestinians losing lives, but arguably (also) their future.”

With COP28 featuring several points on which participants need to find common ground — including phasing out fossil fuels, how to decrease emissions from global food production, how to finance energy transition in developing countries, and how to help those countries adapt as climate-related disasters mount— the Malaysian minister also raised the general issue of Israel’s military occupation thwarting climate action in Palestinian territories, particularly in Gaza.

“The occupation robs Palestinians of their right and ability to improve climate resilience due to the inordinate control over Palestinian land, water, and other vital natural resources,” he said

Israel controls water reserves not only in Gaza but also in the West Bank, and uses more than five times the amount of water consumed in those two locations combined, according to B’Tselem, a Jerusalem-based NGO documenting human-rights violations in the Israeli-occupied Palestinian territories.

The amount of water accessible daily to the Palestinians is the amount the World Health Organization prescribes as the minimum in disaster zones.

“It is very much a climate injustice. Gazans are facing a climate crisis further compounded by the loss of land due to rising sea levels, severe lack of access to clean water for Palestinians, lack of sanitation, impact on food security ... all of which aggravate the impact of prolonged conflicts,” Nik Nazmi said.

“They will struggle to cope with climate-change impacts, and are weakened by the turmoil that disrupts livelihoods and interrupts any access to food and other sustenance.”