LONDON, 25 May 2004 — It will take more than a UN call for “full sovereignty” or a speech by US President George W. Bush to convince Iraqis they will soon be free of occupation.
With violence racking Iraq, few countries will rush to join a multinational force after US-British occupiers hand over to an interim Iraqi government on June 30, analysts say.
That transfer may formally end an occupation that began when last year’s US-led invasion toppled Saddam Hussein, but many Iraqis may find it hard to grasp the change if US forces still call the shots in the streets and behind the scenes.
“They will give us a president like Yasser Arafat, a president in name but with no power,” said Hussein Ibrahim, a 22-year-old student at Baghdad University.
Glad to see Saddam gone, many Iraqis are dismayed at the insecurity and bloodshed that still stalks their country despite American promises of peace, democracy and prosperity. A recent opinion poll showed only seven percent of Iraqis still view US troops as liberators. Over 40 percent said they would feel safer if US forces left now.
“After a year’s experience, people know where power lies,” said Iraq analyst Mustafa Alani. “If the new ‘sovereign’ entity does not have the authority to protect its citizens from US arrest, it will have no credibility in the eyes of Iraqis.”
Most were sure no Iraqi entity could exert control over the Americans, he said, citing the perceived impotence of the existing Governing Council, the widening prisoner abuse scandal and even the US courts-martial of American soldiers involved.
Bush, keen to turn the focus on the political transition and away from bad news ahead of the November presidential election, will outline his Iraq strategy in a speech likely to appeal more to Americans than Iraqis.
“I don’t think Iraqis will feel that all this razzmatazz over the June 30 transfer is worth the fuss,” Alani said.
Saudi Arabia’s ambassador to Britain and Ireland echoed that view. “The individual Iraqi, until he can actually declare that his government is truly representative of his wishes and aspirations, must still consider himself occupied,” Prince Turki Al-Faisal told the Irish Independent newspaper.
The United States and Britain are seeking support for a draft resolution designed to legitimize the interim government that UN envoy Lakhdar Brahimi has been laboring to select.
While Bush has promised Iraqis full sovereignty, debate has raged over whether this can be achieved while more than 150,000 US-led troops remain in Iraq, especially if a US general keeps command of Iraqi military and paramilitary forces.
Daniel Neep, head of the Middle East program at London’s Royal United Services Institute, said legitimacy was the key.
The interim government could only gain acceptance if it showed Iraqis it could make decisions without US guidance and at least have some influence over counterinsurgency strategy.
“Maybe they won’t have a veto, but they must be seen to make a difference to the way things are done at the moment,” he said.
The new government, even if not elected itself, could show some democratic credentials by organizing local polls, he added.
France, Germany, Russia and other opponents of the Iraq war want a real transfer of power to the interim government, whose main task is to prepare for national elections due by January.
The draft UN resolution may fall short of their demands and those major powers have ruled out sending troops to Iraq even if things go their way in the Security Council.
“When I say transfer of sovereignty, then I mean it,” German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder said yesterday, saying authority over resources and security issues must be spelled out.
