How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos

Analysis How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos
Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the twin earthquakes of February 2023, and the spillover of the Gaza conflict have traumatized and impoverished the Syrian people. (AFP/File)
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Updated 06 August 2024
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How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos

How a spate of terrorist attacks by a ‘resurgent’ Daesh threaten to push Syria deeper into chaos
  • Five years since its territorial defeat, there are fears Daesh could be about to stage a comeback in Iraq and Syria
  • Economic hardship, national fragmentation, and spillover from Gaza could create conditions for a new insurgency

LONDON: Just when Syrians thought they could finally put the horrors of the past decade behind them, the first half of 2024 bore witness to a series of savage attacks by an Islamist group that many hoped had been vanquished for good.

Daesh claimed responsibility for 153 terrorist attacks in Syria and Iraq in the first six months of this year, according to US Central Command — already surpassing the 121 attacks reported over the entirety of 2023.

At its peak in 2015, the terrorist group controlled roughly 110,000 sq. km of territory — a third of Syria and 40 percent of Iraq, including major cities like Raqqa in Syria and Mosul in Iraq, according to the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh.

It also commanded an army exceeding some 40,000 militants and had at its disposal a formidable arsenal captured from local forces. However, after an international effort, Daesh met its territorial defeat in the village of Baghuz, eastern Syria, in March 2019.




Al-Hol camp in Syria's northeastern Al-Hasakah Governorate. (AFP/File)

Five years on, and on the 10th anniversary of the group’s 2014 blitzkrieg of Iraq and Syria, there are fears that Daesh could be about to stage a comeback, at a time when the world’s attention is distracted by crises elsewhere.

On July 22, Geir Otto Pedersen, the UN special envoy for Syria, told the Security Council that the “resurgence” of terrorist activities posed a significant threat to Syrian civilians, especially amid a deepening, country-wide humanitarian crisis.

Highlighting that Syria “remains in a state of profound conflict, complexity and division,” he said the country is “riddled” with armed actors, listed terrorist groups, foreign armies and front lines.

Joshua Landis, director of the Center for Middle East Studies and the Farzaneh Family Center for Iranian and Arabian Gulf Studies at the University of Oklahoma, told Arab News the group’s lack of territory meant its militants had to content themselves with low-level insurgent activity.

“(Daesh) has remained a threat in Syria and the number of people that ISIS has killed and the number of attacks in 2024 has risen compared to last year,” said Landis, using another acronym for the group.

Daesh “is also trying to reconstitute itself, although it remains without territory and must carry out hit-and-run attacks and assassinations,” he added.

Ian J. McCary, deputy special envoy for the Global Coalition to Defeat Daesh, confirmed in March that the threat of Daesh continued to lurk in Syria and Iraq.

“We continue to see a real threat in Iraq and Syria, where ISIS at one point controlled a region with a population of approximately 10 million people,” he told the Washington Institute.

“We have seen the emergence of ISIS affiliates — the so-called ISIS Khorasan inside Afghanistan, which poses a clear external threat — and in Sub-Saharan Africa where several ISIS affiliates have emerged.”




Daesh leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi. (AFP/File)

Established in early 2015 as the regional branch of Daesh in South-Central Asia, the Islamic State — Khorasan Province, also known by the acronym IS-K, initially focused on transferring fighters from Afghanistan and Pakistan to Syria, according to the Warsaw-based Center for Eastern Studies.

The group has a history of attacks that extended far beyond Afghanistan, including one that targeted the Crocus City Hall in Russia’s capital Moscow on March 22 this year, killing at least 133 people and injuring more than 100.

In January, IS-K also claimed responsibility for twin blasts in Iran that killed at least 100 people and injured 284 more during a memorial for the slain Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani.

In Syria, the group has staged attacks in central and northeastern Syria, targeting both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the country’s semi-autonomous region.

Throughout much of 2020 and 2021, Daesh sleeper cells in the northeast were building an intelligence network and raising money through theft, extortion and smuggling, according to a 2022 report by the International Crisis Group.

However, analysts are particularly concerned about northeast Syria’s prisons and detention camps, where militants and their families have been held since their capture in 2019.




Women and children evacuated from Baghouz, a Daesh holdout in 2019, arrive in Deir Ezzor. (AFP/File)

Some 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are currently held by the SDF across 27 detention facilities, CNN reported in June. With local forces overstretched, many inmates have either escaped or been released.

According to Landis, the SDF “has amnestied a lot of detainees and converted many death sentences to 15-year prison terms. This means that many detainees are being freed from prisons in northeastern Syria.”

Human Rights Watch reported last year that there remain some 42,000 foreign Daesh supporters and their family members, the majority of them children, from 60 countries detained in northeast Syria.

The New York-based monitor said the children in those camps are “held in conditions so dire they may amount to torture, and face escalating risks of becoming victims of violence or susceptible to recruitment by (Daesh).”

Local authorities warn these detention camps have become breeding grounds for radicalization, potentially contributing to a Daesh revival. Such a reemergence would be devastating for a country already brought to the very brink.

Thirteen years of civil war and sanctions, the twin earthquakes of February 2023, and the spillover of the Gaza conflict have traumatized and impoverished the Syrian people.

In early 2024, the UN said some 16.7 million people in Syria — nearly three-quarters of the population — required humanitarian assistance. This came at a time when international aid budgets were already stretched to their limit.




Some 50,000 Daesh suspects and their family members are currently held by the SDF across 27 detention facilities. (AFP/File)

According to a July report by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs, the Humanitarian Response Plan for Syria remains significantly underfunded, with just $871 million of its $4.07 billion budget secured as of July 25.

Ramesh Rajasingham, director of the OCHA Coordination Division, described the situation in Syria as the “worst humanitarian crisis since the start of the conflict,” made worse by ongoing clashes among various armed actors in northeast Syria.

“Another reason that (Daesh) has grown is because of the infighting in northeast Syria between the Arab tribes and the SDF and Kurdish militia,” said Landis.

“The chaos and internecine fighting in northeast Syria have been replicated by infighting inside Syrian government-controlled territory and northwest Syria, which is ruled by opposition militias under Turkish sponsorship and protection.

“The general poverty in Syria and declining humanitarian aid combined with ongoing sanctions is having a bad impact on stability.”

He added: “So long as Syria is divided and suffers from a shrinking economy, (Daesh) will find recruits in Syria. Police forces in all the various regions have been weakened by the lack of funds, bad government, and poverty.”

Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022, according to the World Bank’s Syria Economic Monitor for Spring 2024. The report projects that the real gross domestic product will contract by 1.5 percent this year, exceeding the 1.2 percent decline of 2023.




Bashar Assad’s Syria has experienced a sharp economic decline since 2022. (AFP/File)

According to UN figures, more than 90 percent of the Syrian population lives below the poverty line, and more than half lack access to nutritious food, resulting in more than 600,000 children suffering from chronic malnutrition.

Despite growing concerns of a Daesh resurgence in the region, Karam Shaar, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy, does not foresee the terrorist group regaining control over large areas in Syria and Iraq as it did a decade ago.

“Because of the deterioration in living conditions and the fact that the grievances of many Sunni Muslims in that region remain unanswered, there will always be an appeal for (Daesh),” he told Arab News.

“Yet, I don’t think they could ever control large swathes just because of the current situation on the ground and them being too weak to do so.”

One reason for this is that Daesh’s “modus operandi has actually changed,” he said. “They are now a borderline criminal group as opposed to being a terrorist group. The distinction between the two is whether there is a political message to their activities or not.”

He said Daesh leaders “know full well that if they decide to control large areas, there would be a serious response from multiple actors on the ground, including the Kurds backed by the US, the Syrian regime backed by Russia and Iran.”

In Iraq, the group may be deterred by “the Iraqi army, also backed by the US,” he added.




Daesh has targeted both the armed forces of the Bashar Assad regime and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces. (AFP/File)

Both Shaar and Landis believe a redeployment of foreign troops to eliminate Daesh insurgents is unlikely. “I don’t see this happening given the current circumstances,” said Shaar.

Landis concurred that “more foreign troops are unlikely to be sent to Syria” to combat a resurgence. “Turkiye is seeking a deal with Assad. The US is likely to want to withdraw from Syria in the future, not increase its military position there.”

And far from involving itself in fighting Daesh, “Israel is likely to continue, if not increase, its regular attacks on state military forces in order to decrease their capabilities” as part of its shadow war with Iran and its proxies.

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Iraq’s PM, Syria’s president stress ‘new chapter’ in countries’ relationship

Iraq’s PM, Syria’s president stress ‘new chapter’ in countries’ relationship
Updated 8 sec ago
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Iraq’s PM, Syria’s president stress ‘new chapter’ in countries’ relationship

Iraq’s PM, Syria’s president stress ‘new chapter’ in countries’ relationship
  • Iraq welcomed formation of Syria’s transitional government this week
  • Discussions focus on enhancing border security, cooperation against drug smuggling

LONDON: President of the Syrian Arab Republic Ahmad Al-Sharaa stressed the significance of starting a new chapter in his country’s relationship with Iraq during a phone conversation with its Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani.

The two leaders spoke on Tuesday, the final day of Eid Al-Fitr, which marked the end of the fasting month of Ramadan. The parties discussed enhancing bilateral relations between Syria and Iraq while maintaining economic ties, the Syrian Arab News Agency reported.

Al-Sharaa and Al-Sudani stressed the need to begin a new chapter in their countries’ relationship, focusing in the future on collaborative efforts to address regional challenges and prevent tensions, the SANA added.

Discussions also focused on enhancing border security, cooperation against drug smuggling, and coordination to maintain stability.

Iraq welcomed the formation of Syria’s transitional government this week, reiterating its commitment to its neighbor’s security and sovereignty. Al-Sharaa emphasized his respect for Iraq’s sovereignty, pledging non-interference in its domestic affairs, the SANA said.


Amnesty International calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu

Amnesty International calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu
Updated 01 April 2025
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Amnesty International calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu

Amnesty International calls on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu
  • Israeli PM due to fly to International Criminal Court member state this week
  • Visit ‘must not become a bellwether for the future of human rights in Europe’

LONDON: Amnesty International has called on Hungary to arrest Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, following reports that he will visit the EU member state on Wednesday at the invitation of his Hungarian counterpart Viktor Orban.

Netanyahu is the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court in November over Israel’s conduct in Gaza.

Orban, a close ally of Netanyahu, has said he would not enforce the warrant. As a member state, Hungary is required to enforce any arrest warrant issued by the ICC.

Erika Guevara-Rosas, head of global research, advocacy and policy at Amnesty International, said Netanyahu “is an alleged war criminal, who is accused of using starvation as a method of warfare, intentionally attacking civilians and the crimes against humanity of murder, persecution, and other inhumane acts.”

As an ICC member, “Hungary must arrest him if he travels to the country and hand him over to the Court. Any trip he takes to an ICC member state that does not end in his arrest would embolden Israel to commit further crimes against Palestinians in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.

“Netanyahu’s reported visit should be seen as a cynical effort to undermine the ICC and its work, and is an insult to the victims of these crimes who are looking to the Court for justice. Hungary’s invitation shows contempt for international law and confirms that alleged war criminals wanted by the ICC are welcome on the streets of an EU member state.”

Guevara-Rosas said: “Netanyahu’s visit to Hungary must not become a bellwether for the future of human rights in Europe.

“European and global leaders must end their shameful silence and inaction, and call on Hungary to arrest Netanyahu during a visit which would make a mockery of the suffering of Palestinian victims of Israel’s genocide in Gaza, its war crimes in other parts of the Occupied Palestinian Territory and its entrenched system of apartheid against all Palestinians whose rights it controls.

“Amnesty International calls on the ICC Prosecutor to investigate and prosecute all Israel’s crimes.”

Guevara-Rosas added: “Hungary should equally do so by applying universal jurisdiction principles. Powerful leaders, like Netanyahu, accused by the ICC of war crimes and crimes against humanity, must no longer enjoy the prospect of perpetual impunity.”


Health ministry in Gaza says 1,042 killed since Israel resumed strikes

Health ministry in Gaza says 1,042 killed since Israel resumed strikes
Updated 01 April 2025
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Health ministry in Gaza says 1,042 killed since Israel resumed strikes

Health ministry in Gaza says 1,042 killed since Israel resumed strikes
  • After a ceasefire that lasted roughly two months, Israel relaunched its military campaign in Gaza on March 18

GAZA CITY: The health ministry in Gaza said on Tuesday that 1,042 people have been killed in the Palestinian territory since Israel resumed large-scale strikes on March 18.
According to the ministry’s statement, the figure includes 41 people killed in the past 24 hours. It also reported that the overall death toll had reached 50,399 since the war began on October 7, 2023.
After a ceasefire that lasted roughly two months, Israel relaunched its military campaign in Gaza on March 18. Since then, bombardment and new ground assaults that have killed more than 1,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. The ministry’s count does not distinguish between militants and civilians, but it says over half those killed are women and children.


Israeli defense firm Elbit gets $130 million European rocket supply deal

Israeli defense firm Elbit gets $130 million European rocket supply deal
Updated 01 April 2025
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Israeli defense firm Elbit gets $130 million European rocket supply deal

Israeli defense firm Elbit gets $130 million European rocket supply deal
  • Pro-Palestine activists have repeatedly targeted Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems in the UK
  • They accuse the company of supplying weapons used in Israel’s military actions in Gaza and the West Bank

JERUSALEM: Elbit Systems, Israel’s largest defense firm, said on Tuesday it received a $130 million contract to supply advanced rocket munitions to an unnamed European country.
The contract for the Precize and Universal Launching System (PULS), an advanced and versatile artillery rocket system capable of launching a wide range of ammunition types from a single platform, will be performed over three years.
The system, Elbit said, offers precision strike capabilities with a range of up to 300 kilometers.
“As European nations continue to enhance their defense capabilities, the selection of PULS reaffirms its strategic value in modern battlefield scenarios,” said Yehuda Vered, general manager of Elbit Systems Land.
Under the deal, Elbit will supply a variety of advanced rocket systems that are designed to significantly enhance the operational capabilities of the customer’s defense forces.

Pro-Palestine activists have repeatedly targeted Israeli arms manufacturer Elbit Systems in the UK, accusing it of supplying weapons used in Israel’s military actions in Gaza and the West Bank.

The activist group Palestine Action has led these protests, often involving vandalism and direct action against Elbit’s sites. They argue that Elbit profits from war crimes and demand its closure.


Netanyahu reverses decision on new Israel security chief

Netanyahu reverses decision on new Israel security chief
Updated 01 April 2025
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Netanyahu reverses decision on new Israel security chief

Netanyahu reverses decision on new Israel security chief
  • Decision to appoint former navy commander Vice Admiral Eli Sharvit as Shin Bet chief reconsidered following criticism, including from a key US senator

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said Tuesday he had reversed a decision to appoint former navy commander Vice Admiral Eli Sharvit as security agency chief following criticism, including from a key US senator.
“The prime minister thanked Vice Admiral Sharvit for his willingness to be called to duty but informed him that, after further consideration, he intends to examine other candidates,” Netanyahu’s office said in a statement.
Netanyahu had announced Sharvit’s appointment on Monday, pushing back against a supreme court decision to freeze his government’s move to dismiss incumbent director Ronen Bar.
The prime minister had announced Bar’s dismissal on March 21, citing an “ongoing lack of trust.” The supreme court swiftly suspended the decision until April 8.
Bar’s dismissal has sparked daily mass protests in Jerusalem, disrupting the city.
On Monday, hours after Sharvit’s appointment was announced, reports began surfacing that he had been among tens of thousands of Israelis who took to the streets in 2023 to oppose the Netanyahu government’s attempts to reform the judiciary.
Israeli media reports also recalled that Sharvit, who served in the military for 36 years, had supported a 2022 water agreement with Lebanon that Netanyahu had opposed.
It was also revealed that the former naval chief had penned an opinion piece criticizing US President Donald Trump’s policies on climate change, prompting staunch Trump ally, Senator Lindsey Graham, to criticize his appointment in a post on X.
“While it is undeniably true that America has no better friend than Israel, the appointment of Eli Sharvit to be the new leader of the Shin Bet is beyond problematic,” Graham wrote on Monday.
“There has never been a better supporter for the State of Israel than President Trump. The statements made by Eli Sharvit about President Trump and his polices will create unnecessary stress at a critical time. My advice to my Israeli friends is change course and do better vetting.”