How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization

Analysis How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization
(L-R) Bahrain Foreign Minister Abdullatif Al-Zayani, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, US President Donald Trump, and UAE Foreign Minister Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan participate in the signing of the Abraham Accords at the White House in Washington, D.C., on September 15, 2020. (AFP)
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Updated 26 September 2024
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How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization

How the Gaza war has impacted the pace of Abraham Accords-style Arab-Israeli normalization
  • The 2020 accords normalized relations between Israel, the UAE, and Bahrain, marking a major step in the peace process
  • The Oct. 7 Hamas-led attack and the resulting war in Gaza paused the accords’ momentum, complicating future agreements

LONDON: It is exactly four years since Donald Trump stood on the South Lawn of the White House, flanked by a beaming Benjamin Netanyahu and the foreign ministers of Bahrain and the UAE, each holding a copy of the Abraham Accords Declaration.

The signing of the agreements on Sept. 15, 2020, a process driven by the Trump administration, appeared to be the most significant development in the Arab-Israeli peace process for years.




In the historic Abraham Accords, Bahrain and the UAE recognized Israel’s sovereignty and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations. (AFP/File)

Both Bahrain and the UAE recognized Israel’s sovereignty and agreed to normalize diplomatic relations — the only Arab states to have done so since Egypt in 1979 and Jordan in 1994.

In so doing, as the one-page declaration signed by all four parties affirmed, they recognized “the importance of maintaining and strengthening peace in the Middle East … based on mutual understanding and coexistence,” and vowed to “seek to end radicalization and conflict and to provide all children a better future.”

A number of “firsts” followed. For the first time, it became possible to call direct to Israel from the UAE, and Emirati ships and planes began to dock and land in Israeli ports and airports. Various trade and business deals were made.




The Abraham Accords ushered in an era of understanding that saw the opening of Abu Dhabi’s Abrahamic Family House, which has been featured in TIME Magazine's annual list of the World’s Greatest Places. (WAM photo)

The region’s major player was missing from the White House photo op that day in 2020, but speculation that Saudi Arabia would soon follow suit and normalize relations with Israel was rife.

Three years later, in a groundbreaking and wide-ranging interview with Fox News, broadcast on Sept. 20, 2023, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman gave the biggest hint yet that such a historic breakthrough might be afoot.




Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman being interviewed by Bret Baier of Fox News in September 2023. (AN Archives)

“Every day we get closer,” the Saudi crown prince told Bret Baier of Fox News, adding Saudi Arabia could work with Israel, although he added that any such agreement, which would be “the biggest historical deal since the end of the Cold War,” would depend on positive outcomes for the Palestinians.

“If we have a breakthrough of reaching a deal that give the Palestinians their needs and make the region calm, we’re going to work with whoever is there,” he said.

Just over two weeks later, on Oct. 7, 2023, Hamas and its allies attacked Israel. All bets were off, and the Abraham Accords seemed doomed to go the way of every previous initiative in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process since the Madrid Conference of 1991.




People pay tribute near the coffins of some of the people killed in the October 7 deadly attack by Hamas militants from the Gaza Strip, during a funeral in Kfar Harif in southern Israel, on Oct. 25, 2023. (AFP)

But, say some commentators, despite the death and destruction of the past year, it would be wrong to write off the accords completely, and whether or not the process can be resuscitated could depend on which of the two main candidates in the coming US presidential election is handed the keys to the White House by the American electorate on Nov. 5.

“I’m not sure I would describe the accords as being on life support,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House (the Royal Institute of International Affairs).

“They are actually weathering this very difficult storm of the Gaza war. That is certainly putting the leadership and the decision-making in the UAE and Bahrain under a microscope, and of course that poses difficult domestic dynamics for these leaders to navigate.

“But at the same time, they remain committed to the Abraham Accords and haven’t shown any willingness to walk back from them or to break diplomatic ties. They in fact are arguing that by having diplomatic ties with Israel, they have a better avenue to support Palestinians and work behind the scenes with the Israelis.”




​This picture taken on March 28, 2024 from Israel's southern border with the Gaza Strip shows buildings which have been destroyed by Israeli strikes, amid the ongoing battles between Israeli forces and Hamas militants since the October 7 attack on southern Israel. (AFP)

As for the Israelis, “normalization with Saudi Arabia is not on the cards for now, partly because obviously the Israeli leadership has different priorities right now, and after Oct. 7, the price of normalization became higher.

“And I think the Israeli leadership is calculating that if they wait this out — and perhaps over-anticipating that the Saudis will still be there, which could be a miscalculation — the price that they have to pay for normalization will go down again.

“I think that they’re assuming that the conditions in the region might change, or perhaps if the outcome of the US election leads to a Trump victory, that might alter what they need to do, what commitments they need to make toward the Palestinians that would satisfy the Saudis.”

INNUMBERS

18% Decline in Israel’s overall trade with outside world since eruption of Gaza war in October 2023.

4% Decline in trade between Israel and 7 Arab countries that have normalized ties with it during the same period.

14% Drop in Israel-UAE trade in the last quarter of 2023 following the conflict.

(Source: Abraham Accords Peace Institute)

But for Brian Katulis, senior fellow for US foreign policy at the Middle East Institute in Washington, “it’s a coin toss” whether a Trump or Kamala Harris administration would be most likely to reinvigorate the Abraham Accords.

“As we saw in the candidates’ debate on Tuesday evening, these issues don’t really matter to either of the leaders or the political discourse in America right now,” he said.

“These questions, of the Abraham Accords, of Israel-Palestine or of Iran, don’t really drive the political and policy debate in a major way compared to US domestic issues — immigration, abortion, who we are as a country, inflation.

“When it comes to foreign policy issues, China is much more relevant as a political question.”




Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his Democratic rival Kamala Harris participate in a debate in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, on September 10, 2024. (AFP)

Although, as the father of the Abraham Accords, Trump might be assumed to be keen to re-engage with an initiative he once saw as a foundation stone of his legacy — in January, a Republican lawmaker nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize — “he’s just so erratic as a leader, and I don’t know that he’ll be focused on it,” Katulis said.

“Harris may actually put more time and thought into it. In the debate, she was the only candidate who talked about a two-state solution, and that’s music to the ears of anyone in places like Saudi Arabia, which have been calling for a state of Palestine forever.”

But Saudi Arabia is unlikely to shift far from the position it took in 2002, when it was the author of the Arab Peace Initiative, which was adopted by the Council of Arab States.

This offered Israel peace and normalization of relations with all 22 Arab states, in exchange for “full Israeli withdrawal from all the Arab territories occupied since June 1967, in implementation of Security Council Resolutions 242 and 338, reaffirmed by the Madrid Conference of 1991 and the land-for-peace principle, and Israel’s acceptance of an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital.”

Merissa Khurma, program director of the Middle East Program at the Wilson Center, said: “And of course, the Abraham Accords agreements completely flipped that formula because they offered normalization first.




Israel's revenge attacks against Palestinians in Gaza has not spared houses of worship, making efforts at restoring peace more difficult. (AFP)

“The premise they presented was that it was through these channels of communication that have now been established that we can try to address the thorny issues in the Palestinian-Israeli arena.

“But we all know that the reality on the ground was very different, that settlements and outposts have expanded and with the emergence of the most right-wing government in Israel’s history, all of that has been accelerated.

“I’ve spoken to officials and thought leaders in the UAE, Bahrain and Morocco, and there’s consensus that the Abraham Accords are, at best, on pause. Someone even said the accords are in a coma and they will need to be resuscitated after the war ends in Gaza.”

Harris, Joe Biden’s vice president, is likely to follow in his administration’s footsteps to some extent when it comes to the Abraham Accords.

“The Biden administration was a bit slow to embrace the model of the accords when they came into office, really, because, you know, they saw it as Trump’s legacy, and they were very partisan in their approach,” said Vakil.

“But they did come around, and they did begin to embrace this idea of integration through normalization. The reality, though — and this is what we’ve seen born out since Oct. 7 — is that without providing a mechanism and commitment to restart a peace process, and one that allows Palestinians to have self-determination, the accords, on their own, cannot deliver Israel’s security or provide the region with that integration, that economic and security integration that they’re seeking.”




Israel's relentless revenge attacks that has killed  more than 40,000 Palestinians in Gaza to date has only served to derail attempts at restoring peace in the region. (AFP)/File)

A reboot of the agreements in the wake of the cessation of the current hostilities would be an opportunity — if not a precondition — to reconfigure them and put Palestinian demands at the top of the agenda.

“The Abraham Accords was a well-intentioned initiative led by countries in the region that wanted to prioritize their national security and economic interests,” Merissa Khurma said.

“No one can say taking the path of peace is a bad idea. But the heavy criticism from the region and the Arab public in general, which you can see in the polling from 2021 until today, is that in doing so they basically sidelined the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and flipped the formula that was the essence of the Arab Peace Initiative led by Saudi Arabia in 2002.”


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To move forward successfully, said Katulis, whoever becomes America’s next president must “prioritize Palestine and make it a big item on the agenda.”

To do this, they should “go back to good old-fashioned collective diplomacy and form a regional coalition with a new international framework to create the state of Palestine. It’s ripe for the picking, and I would lean into it.”

Katulis added: “I would advise either President Trump or Harris to work by, with and through all of these countries, from Saudi Arabia to Morocco and others, those that have accords and those that want to. I would spend at least six months assembling everything that people have argued since the war started, and what they’d be willing to do, and what they’d be willing to invest, and present to Israel, the Israeli public and its politicians an offer — a state of Palestine that is going to be good for your security and will also insulate you from the threats presented by Iran.




Palestinian demonstrators sit before Israeli border guards in Beit Jala, occupied West Bank on September 3, 2024 in solidarity with a Palestinian family whose land was taken over by armed Israeli settlers planning to build a new outpost, aggravating animosities. (AFP)

“It is important to think practical, to think realistic, and realistic is that the next US president is not going to actually attend to a lot of these issues, so we’ve got to work with and through people diplomatically.

“Use that new energy in the UAE and Saudi Arabia and other places, use the resources they have to actually do some good, and that good should have as its endpoint making an offer to say, this is a state of Palestine which will coexist with Israel.”

That new energy, said Khurma, was evident at the 33rd summit of the Arab League in Bahrain in May.

In the joint declaration issued afterward, the league reiterated “our unwavering position and our call for a just and comprehensive peaceful settlement of the question of Palestine, as well as our support for the call of His Excellency President Mahmoud Abbas, President of the State of Palestine, for an international peace conference to be convened and for irreversible steps to be taken to implement the two-state solution, in accordance with the Arab Peace Initiative and authoritative international resolutions, with a view to establishing an independent and sovereign Palestinian State, with East Jerusalem as its capital, on the basis of the lines of 4 June 1967.”




Palestinian Authority's President Mahmud Abbas holds a placard showing maps of historical Palestine as he meets by video conference with representatives of Palestinian factions gathered at the Palestinian embassy in Beirut on September 3, 2020,. (POOL/AFP)

For whoever becomes the next president of the US, this initiative could be the vital missing component needed to jumpstart the Abraham Accords.

“When they met in Bahrain, the Arab countries revived the Arab Peace Initiative and took it a step further,” Khurma said.

“In the US media, there was very little coverage, but the declaration is very important because it shows that even in the midst of this horrific war, these countries are still willing to revive the Arab Peace Initiative, a peace plan with Israel, and to extend a hand to normalize with Israel, but of course, without leaving the Palestinians behind.”
 

 


UN agencies, NGOS concerned over staff detained by Yemen’s Houthis

UN agencies, NGOS concerned over staff detained by Yemen’s Houthis
Updated 38 sec ago
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UN agencies, NGOS concerned over staff detained by Yemen’s Houthis

UN agencies, NGOS concerned over staff detained by Yemen’s Houthis
  • The Houthis have kidnapped, arbitrarily detained and tortured hundreds of civilians, including UN and NGO workers, since the start of Yemen’s civil war in 2014, according to rights groups

DUBAI: UN agencies and NGOs expressed “grave concern” Saturday over the referral for criminal prosecution of a large number of their staff who have been “arbitrarily detained” by Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and renewed calls for their immediate release.
The Iran-backed Houthis have detained dozens of staff from UN and other humanitarian organizations, most of them since June, claiming they are members of a “US-Israeli spy network,” a charge the United Nations denies.
“We are extremely concerned about the reported referral to ‘criminal prosecution’ by the Houthi de facto authorities of a significant number of arbitrarily detained colleagues,” said a statement signed by principals of affected UN entities and international NGOs.
The Houthi authorities have not issued any announcement in this regard.
The signatories of the statement included WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, UNESCO head Audrey Azoulay, UN human rights chief Volker Turk and Oxfam International executive director Amitabh Behar.
The Houthis have kidnapped, arbitrarily detained and tortured hundreds of civilians, including UN and NGO workers, since the start of Yemen’s civil war in 2014, according to rights groups.
In June, the Houthis detained 13 UN personnel, including six employees of the Human Rights Office, and more than 50 NGO staff plus an embassy staff member.
The Houthis claimed they had arrested “an American-Israeli spy network” operating under the cover of humanitarian organizations — allegations emphatically rejected by the UN Human Rights Office.
Two other UN human rights staff had already been detained since November 2021 and August 2023 respectively. They are all being held incommunicado.
In early August, the Houthis stormed the UNHCR office, forced staff to hand over the keys, and seized documents and property, before returning it later that month.
The signatories of the statement Saturday renewed their “urgent appeal for the immediate and unconditional release” of all detained staff.
The Houthis overran the capital Sanaa in 2014 and hold most of the country’s main population centers, forcing the internationally recognized government to flee to Aden.
A Saudi-led coalition intervened to prop up the beleaguered government the following year.
The war in Yemen has caused hundreds of thousands of deaths and triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises. Fighting has significantly decreased since the negotiation of a six-month truce by the UN in April 2022.


Fresh protests in Turkiye over violence against women

Women shout slogans during a protest against violence against women in Istanbul, Turkey, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. (AP)
Women shout slogans during a protest against violence against women in Istanbul, Turkey, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. (AP)
Updated 13 October 2024
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Fresh protests in Turkiye over violence against women

Women shout slogans during a protest against violence against women in Istanbul, Turkey, Saturday, Oct. 12, 2024. (AP)
  • Erdogan, having initially blamed alcohol and social media, on Wednesday promised to toughen the justice system and crack down harder on crime

ISTANBUL: Hundreds of women protested in Turkiye Saturday against a wave of murders of women, the latest rallies in response to a recent double slaying in Istanbul.
A crowd of hundreds in Istanbul chanted slogans denouncing Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Islamic-rooted AKP party, an AFP correspondent reported.
“You are a government that lets young girls get killed,” one of the rally’s organizers, Gunes Fadime Aksahin, told the crowd.
Gulizar Sezer, the mother of a young woman who was murdered, also addressed the rally. Her daughter’s body was found in June after being thrown into the sea wrapped in a carpet.
Other protests took place in the capital Ankara and Izmir, another major city, according to photos posted by a women’s rights federation.
There have been similar such protests every day for a week across the country, notably on university campuses.
A man arrested on suspicion of having killed two young women on the same night took his own life last week, sparking the protests.
The suspect and the two women were all aged 19, said Istanbul officials. The women had been killed within 30 minutes of each other, they added.
It was not known if they knew their attacker.
Erdogan, having initially blamed alcohol and social media, on Wednesday promised to toughen the justice system and crack down harder on crime.
Turkiye has struggled to contain a wave of killings of women.
One monitoring group says there have been 299 murders of women this year in the country of 85 million people, with more than 160 “suspect” killings officially classed as suicides or accidents.
In 2021, Turkiye withdrew from the Council of Europe convention on preventing violence against women, known as the Istanbul convention.
It obliges national authorities to investigate and punish violence against women.

 


Israel’s airstrike warnings terrify and confuse Lebanese civilians

Israel’s airstrike warnings terrify and confuse Lebanese civilians
Updated 13 October 2024
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Israel’s airstrike warnings terrify and confuse Lebanese civilians

Israel’s airstrike warnings terrify and confuse Lebanese civilians
  • The Lebanese government says at least 1.2 million people have been displaced by the war, the vast majority since Israel ramped up airstrikes across the country last month

BEIRUT: As the war between Israel and Hezbollah intensifies, Lebanese civilians are increasingly paying the price – and this dangerous reality often becomes clear in the middle of the night: That’s when the Israeli military typically warns people to evacuate buildings or neighborhoods to avoid airstrikes.
Moein Shreif was recently awakened at 3 a.m. by a neighbor calling to alert him that Israel planned to strike a nearby building in his middle-class suburb south of Beirut where Hezbollah has a strong presence.
Shreif, his wife and their three children quickly fled their multi-story apartment building and drove away. Within minutes, explosions rang out, he said later that day upon returning to see the smoldering ruins of his building and the one next door.
“I didn’t even have time to dress properly, as you can see,” said Shreif, a well-known Lebanese folk and pop singer who was still wearing his pajamas from the night before. “I didn’t take anything out of the house.”
Israel and Hezbollah have been exchanging strikes nearly every day since the start of the war in Gaza. Hezbollah says it will fire rockets into Israel until there’s a ceasefire in Gaza; Israel says its fighting to stop those attacks, which have forced tens of thousands of Israelis from their homes.
But it wasn’t until late last month, when Israel dramatically expanded its aerial campaign against Hezbollah, that Lebanese people began receiving regular warnings about upcoming airstrikes. Human rights groups say Israel’s warnings — which aren’t issued before many airstrikes — are inadequate and sometimes misleading.
On Sept. 23, Israel made 80,000 calls into Lebanon, according to Imad Kreidieh, head of the country’s telecommunications company – presumably recorded warnings about upcoming airstrikes.
The calls caused panic. Schools shut down. People rushed home early from work. It ended up being the deadliest day of airstrikes in Lebanon in decades, with over 500 people killed — roughly one quarter of all those killed in Lebanon the past year, according to the country’s Health Ministry. Women and children make up one quarter of all the deaths, the ministry says.
Israel has issued warnings on social media nearly every day since then.
On Oct. 1, 27 villages in southern Lebanon were told to evacuate to the north of the Awali River, dozens of kilometers (miles) away. “Save your lives,” the instructions said.
That is when Salam, a 42-year-old mother of two, fled the village of Ain Ebel. She and her family are now staying with relatives in Beirut. Salam refused to give her full name for fear of reprisals.
So far, Ain Ebel – a mostly Christian village – hasn’t been bombarded, although surrounding villages whose residents are predominantly Shiite Muslims have been. Salam’s teenage children are terrified of going home, especially since Israel launched a ground invasion.
Salam is still baffled and angry that her village was evacuated.
So far, evacuation notices in Lebanon have been far more limited than in Gaza, but the messages in both places have a common theme. In Gaza, Israel says it is targeting Hamas militants embedded among Gaza’s civilians. In Lebanon, it warns of similar behavior by Hezbollah, a Hamas ally.
Most of the Israeli military’s warnings first appear on the social media accounts of its Arabic spokesperson. They are then amplified by the Lebanese media.
The warnings instruct people to vacate homes “immediately,” and they are usually followed by a series of overnight strikes that often cause damage in areas beyond those that were warned. Israel says it is targeting Hezbollah fighters, weapons or other assets belonging to the group. Warnings are rarely issued before daytime strikes.
The Lebanese government says at least 1.2 million people have been displaced by the war, the vast majority since Israel ramped up airstrikes across the country last month. Over 800 of some 1,000 shelters are over capacity.
One quarter of Lebanese territory is now under Israeli military displacement orders, according to the UN’s human rights division.
“Calling on residents of nearly 30 villages to leave ‘immediately’ is not effective and unlawfully suggests that civilians who do not leave an area will be deemed to be combatants,” said Ramzi Kaiss, a researcher for Human Rights Watch in Beirut.
Kaiss said Israel — which usually issues warnings 30 to 90 minutes ahead of airstrikes — is obligated to protect civilians who refuse to evacuate, or who are physically unable to.
Amnesty International is also critical of Israel’s practice of warning entire towns and villages to evacuate. It “raises questions around whether this is intended to create the conditions for mass displacement,” Agnes Callamard, the group’s secretary general said in a statement on Thursday.
The Israeli military didn’t respond to a request for comment. It has previously said it makes a significant effort to save civilian lives with its warnings.
For almost a year, Israel’s strikes were mostly concentrated in communities along the border, far from the capital and its populous suburbs. But now people who once felt relatively safe in the outskirts of Beirut are increasingly at risk, and their neighborhoods are receiving a small but growing share of airstrike warnings.
In Shreif’s case, he said his neighbor called about five minutes after the Israeli military issued a warning on the social media platform X.
Shreif considers himself lucky: If it wasn’t for that wake-up call, his family might not be alive. The AP could not determine whether any people were killed or injured in the strike that destroyed Shreif’s building or the one next door.
To the northeast of Beirut, in the Bekaa Valley, Israel recently issued a warning to people to stay at least 1,000 meters (yards) away from their town or village if they are in or a near a home that has weapons belonging to Hezbollah.
Some of the warnings have come in the form of animated videos. One shows an elderly woman in a kitchen, suggesting she is unaware of hidden rooms and compartments in her own house that contain weapons for Hezbollah.
“Didn’t you know?” the narrator says in Arabic, as the elderly woman discovers rockets under the couch, behind the shower curtains and elsewhere. The video warns viewers to leave their homes immediately if they – or their neighbors – discover weapons.
But in many cases there are no warnings at all.
Last month, in Ain el-Delb near the southern city of Sidon, an Israeli airstrike hit a residential building, burying about 70 people under the rubble.
Achraf Ramadan, 34, and his father were among the lucky one who rescue workers were able to pull out alive. His mother was taken to the hospital alive, but she later died from her wounds. His younger sister Julia, a public relations professional in her late 20s, was found dead. Achraf and Julia together had been leading initiatives to support displaced Lebanese families in and around Sidon.
“This is a nice and peaceful neighborhood,” Ramadan said, sounding dejected. “The international community is asleep and not taking initiative. On the contrary, I think it’s giving Israel an excuse for its barbarity on the pretext of self-defense.”


As Hezbollah and Israel battle on the border, Lebanon’s army watches from the sidelines

As Hezbollah and Israel battle on the border, Lebanon’s army watches from the sidelines
Updated 13 October 2024
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As Hezbollah and Israel battle on the border, Lebanon’s army watches from the sidelines

As Hezbollah and Israel battle on the border, Lebanon’s army watches from the sidelines
  • Analysts familiar with the army’s workings said that, should the Israeli incursion reach the current army positions, Lebanese troops would put up a fight — but a limited one

BEIRUT: Since Israel launched its ground invasion of Lebanon, Israeli forces and Hezbollah militants have clashed along the border while the Lebanese army has largely stood on the sidelines.
It’s not the first time the national army has found itself watching war at home from the discomfiting position of bystander.
Lebanon’s widely beloved army is one of the few institutions that bridge the country’s sectarian and political divides. Several army commanders have become president, and the current commander, Gen. Joseph Aoun, is widely regarded as one of the front-runners to step in when the deadlocked parliament fills a two-year vacuum and names a president.
But with an aging arsenal and no air defenses, and battered by five years of economic crisis, the national army is ill-prepared to defend Lebanon against either aerial bombardment or a ground offensive by a well-equipped modern army like Israel’s.
The army is militarily overshadowed by Hezbollah. The Lebanese army has about 80,000 troops, with around 5,000 of them deployed in the south. Hezbollah has more than 100,000 fighters, according to the militant group’s late leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Its arsenal — built with support from Iran — is also more advanced.
A cautious initial response
Israeli forces and Hezbollah fighters have been clashing since Oct. 8, 2023, when the Lebanese militant group began firing rockets over the border in support of its ally Hamas in Gaza.
In recent weeks, Israel has conducted a major aerial bombardment of Lebanon and a ground invasion that it says aims to push Hezbollah back from the border and allow displaced residents of northern Israel to return.
As Israeli troops made their first forays across the border and Hezbollah responded with rocket fire, Lebanese soldiers withdrew from observation posts along the frontier and repositioned about 5 kilometers (3 miles) back.
So far, Israeli forces have not advanced that far. The only direct clashes between the two national armies were on Oct. 3, when Israeli tank fire hit a Lebanese army position in the area of Bint Jbeil, killing a soldier, and on Friday, when two soldiers were killed in an airstrike in the same area. The Lebanese army said it returned fire both times.
Lebanon’s army declined to comment on how it will react if Israeli ground forces advance farther.
Analysts familiar with the army’s workings said that, should the Israeli incursion reach the current army positions, Lebanese troops would put up a fight — but a limited one.
The army’s “natural and automatic mission is to defend Lebanon against any army that may enter Lebanese territory,” said former Lebanese Army Gen. Hassan Jouni. “Of course, if the Israeli enemy enters, it will defend, but within the available capabilities … without going to the point of recklessness or suicide.”
Israeli and Lebanese armies are ‘a total overmatch’
The current Israeli invasion of Lebanon is its fourth into the neighboring country in the past 50 years. In most of the previous invasions, the Lebanese army played a similarly peripheral role.
The one exception, said Aram Nerguizian, a senior associate with the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, was in 1972, when Israel attempted to create a 20-kilometer (12-mile) buffer zone to push back Palestinian Liberation Organization fighters.
At that time, Nerguizian said, the Lebanese army successfully slowed the pace of the Israeli advance and “bought time for political leadership in Beirut to seek the intervention of the international community to pressure Israel for a ceasefire.”
But the internal situation in Lebanon — and the army’s capabilities — deteriorated with the outbreak of a 15-year civil war in 1975, during which both Israeli and Syrian forces occupied parts of the country.
Hezbollah was the only faction that was allowed to keep its weapons after the civil war, for the stated goal of resisting Israeli occupation of southern Lebanon — which ended in 2000.
By 2006, when Hezbollah and Israel fought a bruising monthlong war, the Lebanese army “had not been able to invest in any real-world post-war modernization, had no ability to deter Israeli air power” and “was left completely exposed,” Nerguizian said. “The few times that the (Lebanese army) and Israeli forces did engage militarily, there was total overmatch.”
International aid has been a mixed blessing
After the 2011 outbreak of civil war in neighboring Syria and the rise of the Islamic State militant group there, the Lebanese army saw a new influx of military aid. It successfully battled against IS on Lebanon’s border in 2017, although not alone — Hezbollah was simultaneously attacking the group on the other side of the border.
When Lebanon’s financial system and currency collapsed in 2019, the army took a hit. It had no budget to buy weapons and maintain its existing supplies, vehicles and aircraft. An average soldier’s salary is now worth around $220 per month, and many resorted to working second jobs. At one point, the United States and Qatar both gave a monthly subsidy for soldiers’ salaries.
The US had been a primary funder of the Lebanese army before the crisis. It has given some $3 billion in military aid since 2006, according to the State Department, which said in a statement that it aims “to enable the Lebanese military to be a stabilizing force against regional threats” and “strengthen Lebanon’s sovereignty, secure its borders, counter internal threats, and disrupt terrorist facilitation.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has also touted the Lebanese army as a key part of any diplomatic solution to the current war, with hopes that an increased deployment of its forces would supplant Hezbollah in the border area.
But that support has limits. Aid to the Lebanese army has sometimes been politically controversial within the US, with some legislators arguing that it could fall into the hands of Hezbollah, although there is no evidence that has happened.
In Lebanon, many believe that the US has blocked the army from obtaining more advanced weaponry that might allow it to defend against Israel — America’s strongest ally in the region and the recipient of at least $17.9 billion in US military aid in the year since the war in Gaza began.
“It is my personal opinion that the United States does not allow the (Lebanese) military to have advanced air defense equipment, and this matter is related to Israel,” said Walid Aoun, a retired Lebanese army general and military analyst.
Nerguizian said the perception is “not some conspiracy or half-truth,” noting that the US has enacted a legal requirement to support Israel’s qualitative military edge relative to all other militaries in the region.


40 nations contributing to UN Lebanon peacekeeping force condemn ‘attacks’

40 nations contributing to UN Lebanon peacekeeping force condemn ‘attacks’
Updated 13 October 2024
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40 nations contributing to UN Lebanon peacekeeping force condemn ‘attacks’

40 nations contributing to UN Lebanon peacekeeping force condemn ‘attacks’
  • At least five peacekeepers were wounded by Israeli fire in the past 48 hours as Israel takes its fight against Hezbollah into southern Lebanon
  • UNIFIL, which involves about 9,500 troops of some 50 nationalities, is tasked with monitoring a ceasefire that ended a 33-day war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah

UNITED NATIONS, United States: Forty nations that contribute to the UN peacekeeping force in Lebanon said Saturday that they “strongly condemn recent attacks” on the peacekeepers.
“Such actions must stop immediately and should be adequately investigated,” said the joint statement, posted on X by the Polish UN mission and signed by nations including leading contributors Indonesia, Italy and India.
Other signatories include Ghana, Nepal, Malaysia, Spain, France and China — all countries that have contributed several hundred troops to the force.
At least five peacekeepers have been wounded in recent days as Israel takes its fight against Hezbollah into southern Lebanon.
The peacekeeping mission, UNIFIL, has accused the Israeli military of “deliberately” firing on its positions.
The 40 contributing countries “reaffirm our full support for UNIFIL’s mission and activities, whose principal aim is to bring stabilization and lasting peace in South Lebanon as well as in the Middle East,” the statement read.
“We urge the parties of the conflict to respect UNIFIL’s presence, which entails the obligation to guarantee the safety and security of its personnel at all times,” it added.
UNIFIL, which involves about 9,500 troops of some 50 nationalities, is tasked with monitoring a ceasefire that ended a 33-day war in 2006 between Israel and Hezbollah.
Its role was bolstered by UN Security Council Resolution 1701 of that year, which stipulated that only the Lebanese army and UN peacekeepers should be deployed in south Lebanon.
At a summit on Friday, French, Italian and Spanish leaders said the “attacks” on UNIFIL peacekeepers violated Resolution 1701 and must end.
UNIFIL said that, in recent days, its forces have “repeatedly” come under fire in the Lebanese town of Naqura where it is headquartered, as well as in other positions.
The mission said that Israeli tank fire on Thursday caused two Indonesian peacekeepers to fall off a watch tower in Naqura.
The following day it said explosions close to an observation tower in Naqura wounded two Sri Lankan Blue Helmets, while Israel said it had responded to an “immediate threat” near a UN peacekeeping position.
On Saturday UNIFIL said a peacekeeper in Naqura “was hit by gunfire” on Friday night.
UNIFIL spokesman Andrea Tenenti told AFP the peacekeeping mission’s work had become “very difficult because there is a lot of damage, even inside the bases.”