LONDON, 5 November 2004 — Any battle to succeed Yasser Arafat would be fought initially among the older generation of Palestinian politicians and fighters who spent most of their lives in exile with the president. But the real battle will be within a younger, homegrown generation of politicians who were brought up and raised in the West Bank and Gaza.
Arafat’s likeliest successors are Mahmoud Abbas, better known as Abu Mazen, and Ahmed Qorei, known as Abu Ala. The new generation, leaders such as Jibril Rajoub and Mohammed Dahlan, may make way for the two Abus this time round, with Abu Mazen possibly taking charge of the PLO and Abu Ala as president of the Palestinian Authority. But Rajoub and Dahlan will be preparing their future bids, as they have been for the past few years. Marwan Barghouti — another, more popular, member of that generation and the most likely long-term successor — is still in jail in Israel.
Mahmoud Abbas (Abu Mazen)
A strong contender to become leader of the PLO, the 69-year-old would be the US and Israeli choice, regarded by them as likely to crack down on groups such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad. He was in exile with Arafat in Tunis but ties between the two are fraught and he refused to return to Gaza with Arafat in 1994.
He finally returned to the West Bank last year to become prime minister but was too weak to stand up to Arafat or wring concessions out of the Israeli Prime Minister, Ariel Sharon. After four months, he resigned. He had an operation for cancer three years ago.
Ahmed Qorei (Abu Ala)
The 66-year-old is a reluctant prime minister, frequently on the verge of handing in his resignation because of interference by Arafat. Like Abu Mazen, he is regarded by the Israel government as someone that it could do business with. He was one of the architects of the Oslo peace process. Lacking charisma, he has little support at the popular level. This left him exposed during infighting with Arafat this year. He admitted this weakness in an interview a fortnight ago with journalists.
He said: “You have a president who is in prison and a prime minister who is free and not free, who can move about but does not have the authority to solve problems. I am not a professional politician and, maybe, my skin is not thick enough.”
Marwan Barghouti
The 45-year-old is the best known of the new generation of homegrown Palestinian leaders. Unlike Abu Mazen and Abu Ala, he was brought up and spent most of his life in the West Bank. He demonstrated his leadership qualities during the first Palestinian uprising of 1987-1993 and is one of the main leaders of the second intifada that began in September 2000. He opposed suicide bombings and other attacks inside Israel and advocated confining Palestinian attacks to the West Bank and Gaza. He was captured by the Israelis in 2002 and is currently serving long jail sentences after he was subsequently found guilty of multiple murders.
His conduct during his trial and the fact he is in prison has helped boost his popularity among Palestinians. He will almost certainly do well if he chooses to stand as a candidate from his cell. The Israeli government will determine his fate.
Mohammed Dahlan
At 43, he is another homegrown Palestinian, born in Khan Yunis, in Gaza. Where Barghouti’s powerbase is in the West Bank, Dahlan seeks control of Gaza. Arrested six times by the Israelis, he was deported to Tunis, returning in 1993.
He was in charge of the Palestinian Authority’s security apparatus in Gaza until he fell out of favor with Arafat, who saw his reform proposals as an act of betrayal. He is a polished political performer who is liked by the US, Israeli and British governments. Britain last year facilitated study leave for him in the UK while he was out of favor with Arafat.
He has made many enemies among fellow Palestinians, especially on the West Bank. When British journalists asked Hakam Balawi, the Palestinian interior minister, about Dahlan as a potential successor, he was emphatic: “No. No. A thousand times no.” Dahlan has continued to build support in Gaza, where the Palestinian Authority has to contend for power with Hamas and Islamic Jihad.
Jibril Rajoub
Aged 51, he is almost a mirror image of Dahlan on the West Bank. He was in charge of security in the area until he too fell out of favor. He was deemed by Arafat to have failed to put up enough of a fight against the Israeli incursion in 2002, especially his failure to remain in the fortress-like police headquarters in Ramallah. He is now back in favor.
Rajoub, like Dahlan, is still in close contact with counterparts in Israeli intelligence. Arafat this month teased him, claiming he was in secret talks with Ariel Sharon through his son Omri. Rajoub spent 17 years in Israeli jails. He also went to Tunis with Arafat. He is apparently opposed to attacks on civilians, either in Israel or on Jewish settlers in the West Bank and Gaza.
