Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

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Updated 29 October 2024
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Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

Arab Americans’ vote will matter in this election, Middle East Institute panel hears

LONDON: Just days before Americans head to the polls to decide who will be the next US president, Republican Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris find themselves neck and neck in the race for the White House. With the contest balanced on a razor’s edge, any minor development at this point could be enough to decisively swing the vote.

Although they make up just 1 percent of the total electorate, Arab Americans represent a significant constituency in several swing states, where even a handful of votes could influence the election outcome. As such, neither of the main candidates can afford to take their votes for granted.

That is why Arab News teamed up with polling agency YouGov to survey the attitudes of Arab Americans across all geographies, age ranges, genders and income brackets to see which way the community was leaning, and what issues mattered to them most.

What became abundantly clear from the survey was that Arab Americans are not a monolith motivated by any single issue. Domestic matters, such as the economy and the cost of living, loomed large, while border security and abortion rights were also key considerations.

However, it was the plight of the Palestinians that emerged as the biggest issue for Arab Americans of all generations; namely the ongoing Israeli offensive against Hamas in Gaza and the perceived failure of President Joe Biden’s administration to rein in Israel.




Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris. (AFP/File)

Brian Katulis, a senior fellow for US foreign policy at Middle East Institute, who moderated a special panel discussion on Monday to examine the poll findings, said the prominence of the Palestinian issue in this election showed there was still a role for the US to play in the region.

“Within the political discussion we’re having in this country, it does imply that there’s actually a strong interest in the US engaging more deeply in the Middle East — just doing it in the right way,” said Katulis.

“There’s a serious difference over who and which candidate is the right way. But for those who’ve said that we should just pull back from the region, restrain ourselves, there’s some who say that, but I think there’s a general impulse here that we need to actually delve more deeply into trying to solve — or not solve, but engage — these questions in a proper way in the region itself, but then politically here at home.”

Asked to place six key issues in order of priority, 26 percent of Arab Americans polled by YouGov said the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is their chief concern. The economy and the cost of living were not far behind, representing the chief concerns for 19 percent of respondents.

“The highest priority, in terms of issues that Arab Americans face, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict came at 26 percent — the highest — then followed by the economy and cost of living,” Lara Barazi, a freelance data consultant and former research director at YouGov, told the MEI panel.

Palestine appeared to be of most concern to Arab Americans in lower income brackets: 37 percent of those earning under $40,000, falling to 22 percent among those paid $80,000 or more.

“These are their issues that kind of mirror what’s going on right now in the US, not only for Arab Americans, when we look at income,” said Barazi.




If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel. (AFP/File)

“The highest priority goes to the Palestinian conflict. It’s 41 percent of the lowest earners who support the Palestinian-Israeli conflict versus the highest earners. Basically, they’re interested in the economy, cost of living and the Palestinian conflict, but they do put a lot of weight on the economy and cost of living.”

What was also interesting about the findings was how much of a priority the Middle East conflict was for respondents identifying as Republican, Democrat and independent.

“We see that the highest (ranking) for the Palestinian-Israeli conflict comes from independents and the lowest comes from Republicans,” said Barazi. “Only 17 percent of Republicans said that the Palestinian-Israeli conflict is a top priority for us, while cost of living comes the highest for Republicans.”

Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him, which suggested they are penalizing the Democrats over the Biden administration’s perceived failure to rein in Israel.

Asked which candidate they were most likely to vote for, 45 percent said Trump while 43 percent opted for Harris, although this gap could easily be narrowed — or slightly widened — by the survey’s 5.93 percent margin of error.

The slightly higher support for Trump than for Harris comes despite the fact that 40 percent of those polled described themselves as Democrats, 28 percent as Republicans and 23 percent as independents.

The findings were somewhat puzzling, especially as Trump has announced his intention to expand his 2017 travel ban on people from seven majority-Muslim countries (Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria and Yemen) and has said if elected he would bar Palestinian refugees from entering the US, policies that few Arab Americans would support.

Nevertheless, it appears Biden’s record on the Middle East over the past year has been the deciding factor for many.

Also taking part in Monday’s MEI panel discussion, Yasmeen Abu Taleb, a White House reporter at The Washington Post, said the Democrats never expected the issue of Palestine to hang over the campaign in the way that it has.




Despite Trump being perceived as more supportive of the Israeli government than Harris, many Arab Americans indicated in the poll that they would still vote for him. (AFP/File)


“We’ve never seen the issue of Palestine be this big of a political issue for this long,” she said. “I think in the Biden administration, there was a sense that people would be really angry and protest for a month or two. They hoped the war would be over by January.

“They were always wildly optimistic that this was not going to hang over them as an election issue. And here we are, more than a year later, and it’s still a key driver of the election. I think that’s an important signal of how much the politics have shifted on this.

“I don’t think we’ve seen this in US politics, where the debate has been this intense and sustained.”

If Harris does beat Trump to the presidency, it remains unclear whether she will shift the Democratic Party’s stance on Israel or if the policy of the Biden administration, of which she is part, will remain broadly unchanged.

“Obviously it depends on who wins but I do think if you saw a Harris presidency, it’s not going to be the dramatic change that people are pushing for,” said Abu Taleb. “But I do think there are signs that the Democratic Party is shifting on Israel, and in subtle but important ways.”

Although the Arab News-YouGov poll focused on Arab American opinion, the panel discussion naturally expanded to the prevailing attitudes among the Arab populations and leaderships in the Middle East. Tarek Ali Ahmad, head of research and studies at Arab News, said that many in the Middle East are holding their breath.

“People are essentially just waiting for the election day to come,” he added. “That’s when everyone’s going to be like, OK, now we can finally stop this election game, campaigning, and we can actually get to solid, concrete policy that will affect what’s going to happen, whether or not we’re going to see an actual end to the conflict, or we’re going to see even further.

“We haven’t heard anything in terms of preference to whichever candidate comes through. But at the same time, we cannot dismiss the fact that any incoming president will have a lot to clean up with regards to everything that’s happening on the ground.”




“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president,” Ali Ahmad said. (AFP/File)

On whether or not the Arab world has any preference for the US presidency, Ali Ahmad said many in the region have remained tight-lipped, preferring to wait and see the outcome of this closely fought race.

“There’s a lot of different points of view and there’s no real proper preference for either candidate because of the fact that it’s just such a razor-thin difference,” he said.

“Now you have people on the ground talking about how, essentially, every single event that occurs causes a shift in opinion, from (Israel) entering into Lebanon, from the bombing of Iran, to even Biden’s resignation from the nomination.

“So there’s so many different aspects that come to shift public opinion on the ground with regards to who’s going to be president.”

Reflecting on the significance of the role of the Arab American constituency in the election, Ali Ahmad said many seem to recognize their vote can make a significant difference.

“The reason why there’s a big turnout, as we said, nine out of 10 Americans are set to go vote, is that 80 percent of those who responded found that their vote actually counts and will matter in this year's election,” he said.

“They really feel that they could actually change it and make that difference, whether it is to punish the Democrats or whether it is to actually vote for an independent.”

 


Corruption overshadows Ukraine’s multi-billion reconstruction progam

Corruption overshadows Ukraine’s multi-billion reconstruction progam
Updated 14 sec ago
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Corruption overshadows Ukraine’s multi-billion reconstruction progam

Corruption overshadows Ukraine’s multi-billion reconstruction progam
  • Transparency International ranked Ukraine 104 out of 180 countries in its ‘corruption perceptions index,’ up from 144 in 2013
KYIV: When Bart Gruyaert agreed to help rebuild destroyed apartment blocks outside Kyiv, he hoped to be one cog in Ukraine’s vast reconstruction program, repairing just some of the damage wrought by Russia’s invasion.
But when the French company he works for, Neo-Eco, applied for building permits in the town of Gostomel, the local military administration asked the company to transfer the funds for the multimillion-dollar project to its bank account, under the pretense that it would run the project directly.
Officials told Gruyaert, “it’s better if you transfer the money you received to our account,” he recalled.
“But it doesn’t work like that,” he said.
The company refused, and progress on the initiative, which had secured €20 million in private funding, immediately slowed.
It marked the latest example of the endemic corruption that has plagued Ukraine since it became independent after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.
After Neo-Eco’s refusal on the bank transfer, the local administration started dragging things out, adding new requirements to the contract and trying to incentivize the company to “give envelopes” to the right people, Gruyaert alleged.
The company reluctantly decided to abandon the project in September 2023, saying it was “impossible” to work under such conditions.
Following the saga, Ukrainian investigators said they had uncovered a system of “embezzlement” in the Gostomel military administration and accused its head Sergiy Borysiuk of appropriating around 21 million hryvnia ($470,000) meant for the reconstruction of houses and apartments.
In June 2023, after the allegations surfaced, Borysiuk was dismissed by President Volodymyr Zelensky.
He had pre-empted his removal with a press conference several days earlier in which he said he had done “everything possible” to ensure reconstruction efforts.
“It seems to me that you are looking for the enemy in the wrong place,” he said.
The case is far from isolated.
Even though Ukraine has stepped up its anti-graft measures over the past decade to advance its ambition of joining the European Union, corruption scandals are still rife.
Transparency International ranked Ukraine 104 out of 180 countries in its “corruption perceptions index,” up from 144 in 2013.
For some officials, Russia’s invasion has provided new opportunities for personal enrichment.
Several high-profile cases of alleged embezzlement of reconstruction funds, as well as the arrest of officials for selling army exemption certificates, have emerged throughout the war.
While a potential embarrassment for Ukraine, which relies on billions of dollars in Western financial support, Transparency International Ukraine’s director Andriy Borovyk said attention to the cases showed the problem was not being “forgotten.”
And authorities also tout the uncovering of such schemes as a sign of “effective” enforcement.
Just 10 years ago, “who could have thought that senior officials could be accused of crimes?” said Viktor Pavlushchyk, head of the National Agency on Corruption Prevention.
“Now we have some very good examples,” he said.
Around 500 corruption cases have been opened this year and 60 convictions secured, according to the National Anti-Corruption Bureau.
But there are lingering fears the persistent problem will hamper Ukraine’s massive reconstruction agenda, deterring international partners from putting up funds.
The total cost of reconstructing Ukraine stands is estimated at $486 billion, according to a joint study by the World Bank, UN, EU and Ukrainian government.
Gruyaert has not been deterred by his experience in Gostomel, which was occupied by Russian forces in the first weeks of the February 2022 invasion.
Ukraine is “making a lot of progress” on corruption, Gruyaert said, adding that Neo-Eco has had to learn how to “zigzag between the various obstacles.”
The company is still working on several other projects and encourages other foreign investors to get involved.
But, bruised by the Gostomel experience, it now prioritizes working with cities where it has confidence it will not be asked for kickbacks.
Most concede that much remains to be done in Ukraine’s anti-corruption fight, especially when it comes to reconstruction.
It is still common for local officials to have stakes in construction companies through their relatives, several figures said.
Ukraine is trying to weed out such conflicts of interest and make the whole process more transparent.
Last year, the country launched a platform listing all open projects.
Called “DREAM,” the aim is to enable investors, journalists and Ukrainians to track the progress of construction projects, said its head Viktor Nestulia.
A commitment to such openness will be key to reassuring foreign investors, said Mustafa Nayyem, an activist and journalist who headed the reconstruction agency until earlier this year.
“The war is not an excuse not to fight corruption,” he said.
Corruption, “is not in Ukrainian DNA, it’s simply a question of will.”

BRICS offered Turkiye partner country status, Turkish trade minister says

BRICS offered Turkiye partner country status, Turkish trade minister says
Updated 26 min 18 sec ago
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BRICS offered Turkiye partner country status, Turkish trade minister says

BRICS offered Turkiye partner country status, Turkish trade minister says
  • Turkish officials have repeatedly said potential membership of BRICS would not affect Turkiye’s responsibilities to the Western military alliance

ANKARA: Turkiye was offered partner country status by the BRICS group of nations, Trade Minister Omer Bolat said, as Ankara continues what it calls its efforts to balance its Eastern and Western ties.
Turkiye, a NATO member, has in recent months voiced interest in joining the BRICS group of emerging economies, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Ethiopia, Iran, Egypt, and the United Arab Emirates.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan attended a BRICS leaders’ summit hosted by Russian President Vladimir Putin in Kazan last month, after Ankara said it had taken formal steps to become a member of the group.
“As for Turkiye’s status regarding (BRICS) membership, they offered Turkiye the status of partner membership,” Bolat said in an interview with private broadcaster TVNet on Wednesday.
“This (status) is the transition process in the organizational structure of BRICS,” he said.
Ankara sees the BRICS group as an opportunity to further economic cooperation with member states, rather than an alternative to its Western ties and NATO membership, Erdogan has said.
Turkish officials have repeatedly said potential membership of BRICS would not affect Turkiye’s responsibilities to the Western military alliance.
Aside from full membership, BRICS members introduced a “partner country” category in Kazan, according to the declaration issued by BRICS on Oct. 23.
Bolat did not say whether Ankara had accepted the proposal.
An official in Erdogan’s ruling AK Party told Reuters this month that while the proposal had been discussed in Kazan, partner country status would fall short of Turkiye’s demands for membership.


1 million migrants in the US rely on temporary protections that Trump could target

1 million migrants in the US rely on temporary protections that Trump could target
Updated 14 November 2024
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1 million migrants in the US rely on temporary protections that Trump could target

1 million migrants in the US rely on temporary protections that Trump could target
  • People from 17 countries, including Haiti, Afghanistan, Sudan and recently Lebanon, are currently receiving such relief
  • But President-elect Donald Trump promised mass deportations and suggested he would scale back the use of Temporary Protected Status

NEW YORK: Maribel Hidalgo fled her native Venezuela a year ago with a 1-year-old son, trudging for days through Panama’s Darien Gap, then riding the rails across Mexico to the United States.
They were living in the US when the Biden administration announced Venezuelans would be offered Temporary Protected Status, which allows people already in the United States to stay and work legally if their homelands are deemed unsafe. People from 17 countries, including Haiti, Afghanistan, Sudan and recently Lebanon, are currently receiving such relief.
But President-elect Donald Trump and his running mate, JD Vance, have promised mass deportations and suggested they would scale back the use of TPS that covers more than 1 million immigrants. They have highlighted unfounded claims that Haitians who live and work legally in Springfield, Ohio, as TPS holders were eating their neighbors’ pets. Trump also amplified disputed claims made by the mayor of Aurora, Colorado, about Venezuelan gangs taking over an apartment complex.
“What Donald Trump has proposed doing is we’re going to stop doing mass parole,” Vance said at an Arizona rally in October, mentioning a separate immigration status called humanitarian parole that is also at risk. “We’re going to stop doing mass grants of Temporary Protected Status.”
Hidalgo wept as she discussed her plight with a reporter as her son, now 2, slept in a stroller outside the New York migrant hotel where they live. At least 7.7 million people have fled political violence and economic turmoil in Venezuela in one of the biggest displacements worldwide.
“My only hope was TPS,” Hidalgo said. “My worry, for example, is that after everything I suffered with my son so that I could make it to this country, that they send me back again.”
Venezuelans along with Haitians and Salvadorans are the largest group of TPS beneficiaries and have the most at stake.
Haiti’s international airport shut down this week after gangs opened fire at a commercial flight landing in Port-Au-Prince while a new interim prime minister was sworn in. The Federal Aviation Administration barred US airlines from landing there for 30 days.
“It’s creating a lot of anxiety,” said Vania André, editor-in-chief for The Haitian Times, an online newspaper covering the Haitian diaspora. “Sending thousands of people back to Haiti is not an option. The country is not equipped to handle the widespread gang violence already and cannot absorb all those people.”
Designations by the Homeland Security secretary offer relief for up to 18 months but are extended in many cases. The designation for El Salvador ends in March. Designations for Sudan, Ukraine, and Venezuela end in April. Others expire later.
Federal regulations say a designation can be terminated before it expires, but that has never happened, and it requires 60 days’ notice.
TPS is similar to the lesser-known Deferred Enforcement Departure Program that Trump used to reward Venezuelan exile supporters as his first presidency was ending, shielding 145,000 from deportation for 18 months.
Attorney Ahilan T. Arulanantham, who successfully challenged Trump’s earlier efforts to allow TPS designations for several countries to expire, doesn’t doubt the president-elect will try again.
“It’s possible that some people in his administration will recognize that stripping employment authorization for more than a million people, many of whom have lived in this country for decades, is not good policy” and economically disastrous, said Arulanantham, who teaches at the University of California, Los Angeles School of Law, and helps direct its Center for Immigration Law and Policy. “But nothing in Trump’s history suggests that they would care about such considerations.”
Courts blocked designations from expiring for Haiti, Sudan, Nicaragua and El Salvador until well into President Joe Biden’s term. Homeland Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas then renewed them.
Arulanantham said he “absolutely” could see another legal challenge, depending on what the Trump administration does.
Congress established TPS in 1990, when civil war was raging in El Salvador. Members were alarmed to learn some Salvadorans were tortured and executed after being deported from the US Other designations protected people during wars in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Kuwait, from genocidal violence in Rwanda, and after volcanic eruptions in Montserrat, a British territory in the Caribbean, in 1995 and 1997.
A designation is not a pathway to US permanent residence or citizenship, but applicants can try to change their status through other immigration processes.
Advocates are pressing the White House for a new TPS designation for Nicaraguans before Biden leaves office. Less than 3,000 are still covered by the temporary protections issued in 1998 after Hurricane Mitch battered the country. People who fled much later under oppression from President Daniel Ortega’s government don’t enjoy the same protection from deportation.
“It’s a moral obligation” for the Biden administration, said Maria Bilbao, of the American Friends Service Committee.
Elena, a 46-year-old Nicaraguan who has lived in the United States illegally for 25 years, hopes Biden moves quickly.
“He should do it now,” said Elena, who lives Florida and insisted only her first name be used because she fears deportation. “Not in January. Not in December. Now.”


India’s toxic smog cuts off visibility in several areas

India’s toxic smog cuts off visibility in several areas
Updated 14 November 2024
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India’s toxic smog cuts off visibility in several areas

India’s toxic smog cuts off visibility in several areas
  • Delhi pollution ranked in the ‘severe’ category for the second day in a row
  • Pollution in New Delhi is likely to stay in the ‘severe’ category on Friday as well

NEW DELHI: Toxic smog blanketed northern India on Thursday, becoming too thick to see through in several places, as high levels of pollution combined with humidity, low wind speed, and a drop in temperature, officials said.
The city of Lahore in neighboring Pakistan ranked as the world’s most polluted in winter’s annual scourge across the region, worsened by dust, emissions, and smoke from fires burnt illegally in India’s farming states of Punjab and Haryana.
However, operations at New Delhi’s international airport were not affected by the smog, which weather officials expect to scatter during the day as breezes pick up.
Visibility remained at 300 m (980 ft), the airport operator, Delhi International Airport Limited (DIAL) said, while some airlines warned flights could be affected.
“Winter fog may impact flights” with Delhi, the city of Amritsar in Punjab, where authorities said visibility was zero, and the temple city of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh, IndiGo said in a message on X.
New Delhi’s international airport diverted some flights on Wednesday.
The minimum temperature in Delhi fell to 16.1°Celsius (61°F) on Thursday from 17°C the previous day, weather officials said.
Its pollution ranked in the ‘severe’ category for the second day in a row, with a score of 430 on an index of air quality maintained by the top pollution panel that rates a score of zero to 50 as ‘good’.
Pollution in New Delhi is likely to stay in the ‘severe’ category on Friday as well, the earth sciences ministry said, worsening to ‘very poor’ later, or an index score in the range of 300 to 400.
The number of farm fires to clear fields of paddy stubble in preparation for the planting of wheat in north India has risen steadily this week to almost 2,300 on Wednesday from 1,200 on Monday, the ministry’s website showed.
In Pakistan, Lahore, the capital of the eastern province of Punjab, was rated the world’s most polluted city on Thursday, in live rankings kept by Swiss group IQAir. Authorities there have also battled hazardous air this month.
The province has already shut schools, halted some building work, banned most outdoor activity, and ordered early closures of some businesses in efforts to combat the problem.


Philippines Marcos’ says will not block ICC if ex-president Duterte wants to be investigated

Philippines Marcos’ says will not block ICC if ex-president Duterte wants to be investigated
Updated 14 November 2024
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Philippines Marcos’ says will not block ICC if ex-president Duterte wants to be investigated

Philippines Marcos’ says will not block ICC if ex-president Duterte wants to be investigated
  • Ferdinand Marcos Jr.: ‘The Philippines will not cooperate with the ICC but it has obligations with Interpol’
  • ’If that’s the wish of (Duterte), we will not block ICC. We will not just cooperate’

MANILA: Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said on Thursday his government would not block the International Criminal Court (ICC) if former leader Rodrigo Duterte wants to be investigated for alleged crimes against humanity in his anti-drugs crackdown.
The Philippines will not cooperate with the ICC but it has obligations with Interpol, Marcos told reporters.
“If that’s the wish of (Duterte), we will not block ICC. We will not just cooperate,” Marcos said. “But if he agrees to be investigated, it is up to him.”
The remarks follow a marathon congressional hearing on Wednesday during which Duterte, president from 2016-2022, refused to apologize for his role in the bloodshed and urged the ICC to start its investigation
All testimony provided by Duterte will be assessed to see their legal consequences, Marcos said.
Duterte unilaterally withdrew the Philippine as a member of the ICC in 2019 after it announced it had started a preliminary examination into thousands of killings in his anti-narcotics campaign. He questioned its authority to conduct an investigation.
Under Duterte, police said they killed 6,200 suspected dealers who had resisted arrest during their anti-drug operations.
But human rights groups believe the real toll to be far greater, with thousands more users and peddlers gunned down in mysterious circumstances by unknown assailants.
Authorities at the time said those were vigilante killings and drugs gangs eliminating rivals. Rights groups and some victims accuse police of systematic cover-ups and executions, which they deny.