Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
Graves are seen in a residential area in Omdurman, Sudan, November 10, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 14 November 2024
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Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
  • The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations

CAIRO/OMDURMAN: More than 61,000 people are estimated to have died in Khartoum state during the first 14 months of Sudan’s war, with evidence suggesting the toll from the devastating conflict is significantly higher than previously recorded, according to a new report by researchers in Britain and Sudan.
The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations for the entire country.
The preprint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group, released on Wednesday before peer review, suggested that starvation and disease are increasingly becoming the leading causes of death reported across Sudan.
The estimated deaths from all causes in Khartoum state were at a rate 50 percent higher than the national average before the conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023, researchers said. The UN says the conflict has driven 11 million people from their homes and unleashed the world’s biggest hunger crisis. Nearly 25 million people — half of Sudan’s population — need aid as famine has taken hold in at least one displacement camp.
But counting the dead has been challenging.
Even in peace time, many deaths are not registered in Sudan, researchers say. As fighting intensified, people were cut off from places that record deaths, including hospitals, morgues and cemeteries. Repeated disruptions to Internet services and telecommunications left millions unable to contact the outside world. The study “tried to capture that invisibility” using a sampling technique known as “capture-recapture”, said lead author Maysoon Dahab, an infectious disease epidemiologist and co-director of the Sudan Research Group.
Originally designed for ecological research, the technique has been used in published studies to estimate the number of people killed during pro-democracy protests in Sudan in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic, when it was not possible to carry out full counts, she said.
Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear on multiple lists. The less overlap there is between the lists, the higher the chances that deaths have gone unrecorded, information that can be used to estimate the full number of deaths.
In this case, researchers compiled three lists of the dead. One was based on a public survey circulated via social media platforms between November 2023 and June 2024. The second used community activists and other “study ambassadors” to distribute the survey privately within their networks. And the third was compiled from obituaries posted on social media, a common practice in the cities of Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri, which together make up the greater capital.
“Our findings suggest that deaths have largely gone undetected,” the researchers wrote.

UNCOUNTED TOLL
Deaths captured in the three lists made up just 5 percent of the estimated total for Khartoum state and 7 percent of those attributed to “intentional injury.” The findings suggest that other war-affected parts of the country could have experienced similar or worse tolls, the study said.
The researchers noted that their estimate of violent deaths in Khartoum state surpassed the 20,178 killings recorded across the country over the same period by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED), a US-based crisis monitoring group.
ACLED’s data, which is based on reports from sources including news organizations, human rights groups and local authorities, has been cited by UN officials and other humanitarian workers.
Dahab said the researchers did not have sufficient data to estimate mortality levels in other parts of the country or determine how many deaths in all could be linked to the war.
The study also notes other limitations. The methodology used assumes that every death has an equal chance of showing up in the data, for example. However, well-known individuals and those who suffered violent deaths may have been more likely to be reported, the researchers said.
Paul Spiegel, who heads the Center for Humanitarian Health at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and was not involved in the study, said there were issues with all three sources of data that could skew the estimates. But he said the researchers had factored such limitations into their methodology and analysis.
“While it is difficult to know how the various biases in this capture-recapture methodology could affect the overall numbers, it is a novel and important attempt to estimate the number of deaths and bring attention to this horrific war in Sudan,” he said.
An official with the Sudanese American Physicians Association, an organization that offers free health care across the country, said the findings appeared credible.
“The number might even be more,” its program manager, Abdulazim Awadalla, told Reuters, saying weakened immunity from malnutrition was making people more susceptible to infection.
“Simple diseases are killing people,” he said.
The study was funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

“WE BURIED HIM HERE“
Among the war’s many victims was Khalid Sanhouri, a musician whose death in Omdurman’s Mulazmeen neighborhood was announced on social media in July last year.
A neighbor, Mohammed Omar, told Reuters that friends and relatives were unable to get medical care for Sanhouri after he fell ill due to the intensity of the fighting at the time.
“There were no hospitals or pharmacies where we could get medicine, not even markets to buy food,” Omar said.
They couldn’t even reach the nearest graveyard.
“So, we buried him here,” Omar said, pointing to a grave just beyond the bullet-pocked wall surrounding the musician’s home.
Hundreds of graves have popped up next to homes across greater Khartoum since last year, residents say. With the return of the army to some neighborhoods, they have started relocating the bodies to Omdurman’s main cemetery.
There are as many as 50 burials a day there, undertaker Abdin Khidir told Reuters. The cemetery has expanded into an adjoining football field.
Still, the bodies keep coming, Khidir said.
The warring sides have traded blame for the growing toll.
Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Nabil Abdallah referred questions about the study’s estimates to the Ministry of Health but said: “The main cause of all this suffering is the terrorist Rapid Support militia (RSF), which has not hesitated from the first moment to target civilians.”
The health ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it has observed far fewer deaths than the estimates in the study. Its tally of war-related deaths stands at 5,565, it said.
The RSF did not dispute the study’s estimates, blaming the deaths in the capital on “deliberate air strikes on populated areas, in addition to artillery shelling and drone strikes.”
“It is known that the army is the only one with [such weapons],” it said in a statement to Reuters.
The war erupted from a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF ahead of a planned transition to civilian rule. The RSF quickly took over most of the capital and has now spread into at least half the country, though the military regained control of some neighborhoods in Omdurman and Bahri in recent months. Both sides have committed abuses that may amount to war crimes, including attacking civilians, a UN fact-finding mission said in September. The war has also produced ethnically driven violence in the western Darfur region blamed largely on the RSF.
However, the new report highlighted the significant and likely growing toll taken by the war’s indirect impacts, including hunger, disease and the collapse of health care.
Sick patients lined the hallways at Al-Shuhada hospital in Bahri, which has seen a spike in cases of malnutrition and diseases such as malaria, cholera and dengue fever.
Fresh fruits, vegetables and meat were hard to come by until the arrival of the army opened up supply routes, said hospital manager Hadeel Malek.
“As we all know, malnutrition leads to weak immunity in general,” she said. “This is one factor ... which led to many deaths, especially among pregnant women and children.”
Both sides deny impeding aid and commercial deliveries.


France to support Syria transition, French foreign minister says

France to support Syria transition, French foreign minister says
Updated 27 sec ago
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France to support Syria transition, French foreign minister says

France to support Syria transition, French foreign minister says

PARIS: France will support Syria's political transition following the fall of Bashar al-Assad and will send a special diplomatic envoy to the country in the coming days, France's caretaker foreign minister Jean-Noel Barrot said on Monday.
Syrian rebels seized the capital Damascus unopposed on Sunday after a lightning advance that sent President Assad fleeing to Russia after a 13-year civil war and six decades of his family's autocratic rule.
The events in Syria were a stunning defeat for Russia, Barrot told France Info radio, as Moscow could now lose access to military assets it has in the Arab country.


Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 6

Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 6
Updated 32 min 11 sec ago
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Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 6

Israeli strikes in Gaza kill 6
  • Israel’s offensive has killed over 44,500 Palestinians in the Gaza since the start of the war

Palestinian medical officials said Monday that Israeli strikes in the central Gaza Strip overnight killed at least six people, including one woman.
Among the dead in the overnight Israeli strikes were Raed Ghabaien, who was released from Israeli detention in 2014, according to the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital, where the casualties were taken.
He was killed along with his wife when an Israeli strike hit their tent in the central town of Zuweida, the hospital records showed. Two other people were killed in a strike that hit their house late Sunday in the built-up Nuseirat refugee camp. Another two were killed in a strike in the Wadi Gaza area early Monday.
An Associated Press journalist counted the bodies at the hospital’s morgue.
Israel’s offensive has killed over 44,500 Palestinians in the Gaza since the start of the war, according to local health authorities. They say most of the dead are women and children but do not distinguish between fighters and civilians.
Israel says it only strikes militants and blames Hamas for civilian deaths because its fighters operate in residential areas.
The war began when Hamas-led militants stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and abducting around 250, including older adults and children. Around 100 hostages are still inside Gaza, at least a third of whom are believed to be dead.


Netanyahu is set to take the witness stand for the first time in his corruption trial in Israel

Netanyahu is set to take the witness stand for the first time in his corruption trial in Israel
Updated 18 min 15 sec ago
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Netanyahu is set to take the witness stand for the first time in his corruption trial in Israel

Netanyahu is set to take the witness stand for the first time in his corruption trial in Israel
  • The Israeli leader faces charges of fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate affairs
  • The trial began in 2020, and a verdict is not expected until at least 2026.

JERUSALEM: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is set to take to the witness stand Tuesday for the first time in his trial on corruption allegations, a pivotal point in the drawn-out proceedings that comes as the leader wages war in Gaza and faces an international arrest warrant for war crimes charges.
At home, Netanyahu is on trial for accusations of fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate affairs. Netanyahu denies wrongdoing, but his appearance on the witness stand will be a low point in his decades-long political career, standing in contrast to the image of a sophisticated, respected leader he has tried to cultivate.
The trial will take up a chunk of Netanyahu’s time at a crucial point for Israel. While he makes his case for weeks from the stand, he will still be tasked with managing the war in Gaza, maintaining a fragile ceasefire with the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah and keeping tabs on threats from the wider Middle East, including Iran.
It will be the first time an Israeli prime minister has taken the stand as a criminal defendant, and Netanyahu has repeatedly sought to delay the proceedings, citing the ongoing Gaza war and security concerns. The judges ordered the trial to resume Tuesday, moving the proceedings to an underground chamber in a Tel Aviv court as a security precaution.
Netanyahu’s appearance in the courtroom will also draw attention to other legal issues in the Israeli leader’s orbit. Close advisers in his office are embroiled in a separate series of scandals surrounding leaked classified information and doctored documents. While Netanyahu is not suspected of direct involvement in those, they could weaken his public image.
Here is a look at the ongoing trial.
Where does Netanyahu’s trial stand?
The trial, which began in 2020, involves three separate cases in which prosecutors say Netanyahu exchanged regulatory favors with media titans for favorable press coverage and advanced the personal interests of a billionaire Hollywood producer in exchange for lavish gifts.
Prosecutors have called roughly 140 witnesses to the stand — fewer than the 300 initially expected to testify.
Those witnesses have included some of Netanyahu’s closest former confidants who turned against him, as well as a former prime minister, former security chiefs and media personalities. Lawyers have submitted thousands of items of evidence — recordings, police documents, text messages.
A new documentary, “The Bibi Files,” has shined new light on the cases by obtaining footage of Netanyahu being questioned by police, as well as interrogations of his wife and some key witnesses. In a glimpse of what can be expected in the courtroom, Netanyahu appears both combative and anxious at times, accusing police of unfairly picking on him and denigrating other witnesses as liars.
The prosecution called to the stand its final witness over the summer, bringing to an end three years of testimony and setting the stage for the defense to lay out its case, with Netanyahu its first witness. Netanyahu’s appearance will give Israelis a chance to see the long-serving Israeli leader answer to the charges before the three-judge panel.
What are some notable moments from Netanyahu’s trial?
The prosecution has sought to portray Netanyahu as media-obsessed, to push its narrative that he would break the law for favorable coverage.
Witness accounts have shed light not only on the three cases but also on sensational details about Netanyahu’s character and his family’s reputation for living lavishly on the backs of taxpayers and wealthy supporters.
One former aide and a key prosecution witness called him a “control freak” over his image. Another witness described expensive gifts for Netanyahu and his wife.
Arnon Milchan, an Israeli producer of Hollywood blockbuster films such as “Pretty Woman,” took the stand last year by videoconference, describing how he routinely delivered tens of thousands of dollars of champagne, cigars and other gifts requested by the Israeli leader.
One key witness, a former top aide to Netanyahu, stunned prosecutors by backtracking from his earlier claims against the prime minister, opening the door for the defense to erode his credibility as a witness. The trial was jolted by Israeli media reports that police used sophisticated phone-hacking software to spy on this witness.
What happens next in Netanyahu’s trial?
The prosecution formally rested its case in July, and the court recessed for the summer and fall. The defense has repeatedly asked for delays in Netanyahu’s testimony, which have mostly been denied.
Like other witnesses, Netanyahu will testify three days a week, for hours at a time, and his testimony is expected to last weeks. The defense will seek to depict Netanyahu as a law-abiding leader who was a victim of careless and biased police investigations.
Netanyahu’s critics have sought to draw a clear line between the cases and the war in Gaza. They say the allegations led Netanyahu to promote a contentious judicial overhaul plan last year that bitterly divided the country and created an image of weakness that encouraged the Oct. 7 Hamas attack that triggered the war.
Netanyahu’s critics, including families of hostages held by Hamas, now accuse him of dragging out the conflict — and risking the lives of their loved ones — to avoid an embarrassing investigation and new elections that could force him from power.
If he is eventually voted out of power, being away from the prime minister’s seat would make it harder for Netanyahu to rail against the justice system and delegitimize the verdict in the eyes of the public.
A verdict isn’t expected until 2026 — at least — and then Netanyahu can choose to appeal to the Supreme Court. Israel’s courts are notoriously sluggish, and the case was further delayed last year when courts went on hiatus for two months after war broke out following Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
Once the defense rests, each side will summarize their cases before judges convene to deliberate over Netanyahu’s fate.


‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad rule

‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad rule
Updated 56 min 51 sec ago
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‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad rule

‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad rule
  • Syrians at home, refugees wake up to new reality led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham
  • Saudi Arabia calls for efforts to prevent Syria from falling into disarray

RIYADH: Syrians at home and refugees abroad experienced a historic day on Sunday, as they woke up to news of the collapse of the Assad regime that had ruled the country for more than five decades.

Forces led by Abu Mohammed Al-Golani of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, took control of the capital Damascus on Sunday morning, the culmination of a rapid attack that began with the taking of Aleppo less than two weeks ago.

Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Al-Jalali was seen being escorted by Al-Golani’s men to a meeting in which he reportedly handed over power, while anti-regime groups announced on state TV that President Bashar Assad had been overthrown and all prisoners released.

Assad and his family arrived in Russia and were granted asylum by the Russian authorities, Russian news agencies reported, citing a Kremlin source.

The Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying: “President Assad of Syria has arrived in Moscow. Russia has granted them (him and his family) asylum on humanitarian grounds.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the Israeli military to “seize” a demilitarized buffer zone on the Golan Heights-Syria border as a result of the overthrow of Assad.

“We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” he said.

Netanyahu said the events in Syria were “a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah.”

Saudi Arabia called for efforts to prevent Syria from falling into disarray.

“The Kingdom affirms its support for the brotherly Syrian people and their choice,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The Kingdom appealed for “concerted efforts to preserve the unity of Syria and the cohesion of its people, so as to prevent it [from] falling into chaos and division.”

A US National Security Council spokesperson posted on social media that “President [Joe] Biden and his team are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners.”

“The United States will continue to maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of [Daesh],” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro told the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the fall of Assad.

"The developments in Syria in recent hours and days are unprecedented, and we are speaking to our partners in the region and monitoring the situation closely," Starmer said in a statement.

"The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure."

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told a press conference in Doha: “Turkiye calls on all actors to act with prudence and be watchful.”

 


‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad’s rule

‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad’s rule
Updated 29 min 42 sec ago
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‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad’s rule

‘Dawn of Freedom’: Chronicles of the day Syria ended 50 years of Assad’s rule
  • Syrians at home, refugees wake up to new reality led by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham
  • Saudi Arabia calls for efforts to prevent Syria from falling into disarray

RIYADH: Syrians at home and refugees abroad experienced a historic day on Sunday, as they awoke to news of the collapse of the Assad regime that had ruled the country for more than five decades.

Forces led by Abu Mohammed Al-Golani of Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS, took control of the capital Damascus on Sunday morning, the culmination of a rapid attack that began with the taking of Aleppo less than two weeks ago.

Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Al-Jalali was seen being escorted by Al-Golani’s men to a meeting in which he reportedly handed over power, while anti-regime groups announced on state TV that President Bashar Assad had been overthrown and all prisoners released.

Assad and his family arrived in Russia and were granted asylum by the Russian authorities, Russian news agencies reported, citing a Kremlin source.

The Interfax news agency quoted an unnamed source as saying: “President Assad of Syria has arrived in Moscow.

Russia has granted them (him and his family) asylum on humanitarian grounds.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he had ordered the Israeli military to “seize” a demilitarized buffer zone on the Golan Heights-Syria border as a result of the overthrow of Assad.

“We will not allow any hostile force to establish itself on our border,” he said.

Netanyahu said the events in Syria were “a direct result of the blows we have inflicted on Iran and Hezbollah.”

Saudi Arabia called for efforts to prevent Syria from falling into disarray.

“The Kingdom affirms its support for the brotherly Syrian people and their choice,” the Saudi Foreign Ministry said in a statement.

The Kingdom appealed for “concerted efforts to preserve the unity of Syria and the cohesion of its people, so as to prevent it falling into chaos and division.”

A US National Security Council spokesperson posted on social media that “President (Joe) Biden and his team are closely monitoring the extraordinary events in Syria and staying in constant touch with regional partners.”

“The United States will continue to maintain its presence in eastern Syria and will take measures necessary to prevent a resurgence of (Daesh),” Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for the Middle East Daniel Shapiro told the Manama Dialogue security conference in Bahrain.

UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer welcomed the fall of Assad.

“The developments in Syria in recent hours and days are unprecedented, and we are speaking to our partners in the region and monitoring the situation closely.

The Syrian people have suffered under Assad’s barbaric regime for too long and we welcome his departure,” Starmer said in a statement.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan told a press conference in Doha: “Turkiye calls on all actors to act with prudence and be watchful”.