Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
Graves are seen in a residential area in Omdurman, Sudan, November 10, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 14 November 2024
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Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
  • The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations

CAIRO/OMDURMAN: More than 61,000 people are estimated to have died in Khartoum state during the first 14 months of Sudan’s war, with evidence suggesting the toll from the devastating conflict is significantly higher than previously recorded, according to a new report by researchers in Britain and Sudan.
The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations for the entire country.
The preprint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group, released on Wednesday before peer review, suggested that starvation and disease are increasingly becoming the leading causes of death reported across Sudan.
The estimated deaths from all causes in Khartoum state were at a rate 50 percent higher than the national average before the conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023, researchers said. The UN says the conflict has driven 11 million people from their homes and unleashed the world’s biggest hunger crisis. Nearly 25 million people — half of Sudan’s population — need aid as famine has taken hold in at least one displacement camp.
But counting the dead has been challenging.
Even in peace time, many deaths are not registered in Sudan, researchers say. As fighting intensified, people were cut off from places that record deaths, including hospitals, morgues and cemeteries. Repeated disruptions to Internet services and telecommunications left millions unable to contact the outside world. The study “tried to capture that invisibility” using a sampling technique known as “capture-recapture”, said lead author Maysoon Dahab, an infectious disease epidemiologist and co-director of the Sudan Research Group.
Originally designed for ecological research, the technique has been used in published studies to estimate the number of people killed during pro-democracy protests in Sudan in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic, when it was not possible to carry out full counts, she said.
Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear on multiple lists. The less overlap there is between the lists, the higher the chances that deaths have gone unrecorded, information that can be used to estimate the full number of deaths.
In this case, researchers compiled three lists of the dead. One was based on a public survey circulated via social media platforms between November 2023 and June 2024. The second used community activists and other “study ambassadors” to distribute the survey privately within their networks. And the third was compiled from obituaries posted on social media, a common practice in the cities of Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri, which together make up the greater capital.
“Our findings suggest that deaths have largely gone undetected,” the researchers wrote.

UNCOUNTED TOLL
Deaths captured in the three lists made up just 5 percent of the estimated total for Khartoum state and 7 percent of those attributed to “intentional injury.” The findings suggest that other war-affected parts of the country could have experienced similar or worse tolls, the study said.
The researchers noted that their estimate of violent deaths in Khartoum state surpassed the 20,178 killings recorded across the country over the same period by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED), a US-based crisis monitoring group.
ACLED’s data, which is based on reports from sources including news organizations, human rights groups and local authorities, has been cited by UN officials and other humanitarian workers.
Dahab said the researchers did not have sufficient data to estimate mortality levels in other parts of the country or determine how many deaths in all could be linked to the war.
The study also notes other limitations. The methodology used assumes that every death has an equal chance of showing up in the data, for example. However, well-known individuals and those who suffered violent deaths may have been more likely to be reported, the researchers said.
Paul Spiegel, who heads the Center for Humanitarian Health at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and was not involved in the study, said there were issues with all three sources of data that could skew the estimates. But he said the researchers had factored such limitations into their methodology and analysis.
“While it is difficult to know how the various biases in this capture-recapture methodology could affect the overall numbers, it is a novel and important attempt to estimate the number of deaths and bring attention to this horrific war in Sudan,” he said.
An official with the Sudanese American Physicians Association, an organization that offers free health care across the country, said the findings appeared credible.
“The number might even be more,” its program manager, Abdulazim Awadalla, told Reuters, saying weakened immunity from malnutrition was making people more susceptible to infection.
“Simple diseases are killing people,” he said.
The study was funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

“WE BURIED HIM HERE“
Among the war’s many victims was Khalid Sanhouri, a musician whose death in Omdurman’s Mulazmeen neighborhood was announced on social media in July last year.
A neighbor, Mohammed Omar, told Reuters that friends and relatives were unable to get medical care for Sanhouri after he fell ill due to the intensity of the fighting at the time.
“There were no hospitals or pharmacies where we could get medicine, not even markets to buy food,” Omar said.
They couldn’t even reach the nearest graveyard.
“So, we buried him here,” Omar said, pointing to a grave just beyond the bullet-pocked wall surrounding the musician’s home.
Hundreds of graves have popped up next to homes across greater Khartoum since last year, residents say. With the return of the army to some neighborhoods, they have started relocating the bodies to Omdurman’s main cemetery.
There are as many as 50 burials a day there, undertaker Abdin Khidir told Reuters. The cemetery has expanded into an adjoining football field.
Still, the bodies keep coming, Khidir said.
The warring sides have traded blame for the growing toll.
Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Nabil Abdallah referred questions about the study’s estimates to the Ministry of Health but said: “The main cause of all this suffering is the terrorist Rapid Support militia (RSF), which has not hesitated from the first moment to target civilians.”
The health ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it has observed far fewer deaths than the estimates in the study. Its tally of war-related deaths stands at 5,565, it said.
The RSF did not dispute the study’s estimates, blaming the deaths in the capital on “deliberate air strikes on populated areas, in addition to artillery shelling and drone strikes.”
“It is known that the army is the only one with [such weapons],” it said in a statement to Reuters.
The war erupted from a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF ahead of a planned transition to civilian rule. The RSF quickly took over most of the capital and has now spread into at least half the country, though the military regained control of some neighborhoods in Omdurman and Bahri in recent months. Both sides have committed abuses that may amount to war crimes, including attacking civilians, a UN fact-finding mission said in September. The war has also produced ethnically driven violence in the western Darfur region blamed largely on the RSF.
However, the new report highlighted the significant and likely growing toll taken by the war’s indirect impacts, including hunger, disease and the collapse of health care.
Sick patients lined the hallways at Al-Shuhada hospital in Bahri, which has seen a spike in cases of malnutrition and diseases such as malaria, cholera and dengue fever.
Fresh fruits, vegetables and meat were hard to come by until the arrival of the army opened up supply routes, said hospital manager Hadeel Malek.
“As we all know, malnutrition leads to weak immunity in general,” she said. “This is one factor ... which led to many deaths, especially among pregnant women and children.”
Both sides deny impeding aid and commercial deliveries.


UAE president, Pakistani prime minister discuss cooperation, regional developments

UAE president, Pakistani prime minister discuss cooperation, regional developments
Updated 3 sec ago
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UAE president, Pakistani prime minister discuss cooperation, regional developments

UAE president, Pakistani prime minister discuss cooperation, regional developments
  • Leaders reaffirmed their commitment to deepening ties and broadening partnership
  • Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif commended Abu Dhabi for promoting dialogue and seeking common ground in diplomatic conflict resolution

LONDON: UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan met with Pakistan Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif at Qasr Al-Shati in Abu Dhabi to discuss ways to strengthen cooperation between the two countries.

The leaders exchanged Eid Al-Adha greetings on Thursday and focused their meeting on cooperation in the economic, investment, and development sectors. They reaffirmed their commitment to deepening ties and broadening the partnership between their countries.

They discussed various regional and international issues and highlighted the necessity of supporting global initiatives to promote regional and global peace, the Emirates News Agency reported.

Sharif commended Abu Dhabi for promoting dialogue and seeking common ground in diplomatic conflict resolution, along with its continuous support for Pakistan’s development initiatives, the WAM added.

The meeting was attended by Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the deputy ruler of Abu Dhabi and national security adviser, as well as Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the deputy chairman of the Presidential Court for Special Affairs. They were joined by other senior Emirati and Pakistani officials.


UN urges Security Council to pressure Houthis for peace and release of detainees

The UN’s special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg. (@OSE_Yemen)
The UN’s special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg. (@OSE_Yemen)
Updated 12 June 2025
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UN urges Security Council to pressure Houthis for peace and release of detainees

The UN’s special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg. (@OSE_Yemen)
  • With Yemen’s economy in free fall and millions in need amid a worsening humanitarian crisis, they say time is running out to turn ‘hope into progress’
  • A year after dozens of UN and other humanitarian workers were arbitrarily arrested, the UN’s envoy for Yemen says: ‘Their continued imprisonment is shameful’

NEW YORK CITY: Top UN officials on Wednesday warned the Security Council that there is a risk the fragile situation in Yemen could rapidly deteriorate, as they called for both intensified diplomatic efforts and increased humanitarian funding to stave off further instability and ease human suffering.

With Yemen’s economy in free fall and millions in need, they said time is running out to turn “hope into progress.”

The UN’s special envoy for Yemen, Hans Grundberg, and deputy emergency relief coordinator, Joyce Msuya, also highlighted the ongoing detention of UN workers and employees of nongovernmental organizations by the Houthis, a year after dozens were arbitrarily arrested.

“Their continued imprisonment is shameful,” said Grundberg. “I call again, in the strongest terms, for their immediate and unconditional release.”

Msuya echoed this condemnation, saying: “Twenty-three UN staff remain detained. I join the special envoy and the (UN) secretary-general in calling for their immediate release.”

The detentions, some dating back as far as 2021, have cast a long shadow over ongoing diplomatic efforts to reach a comprehensive peace agreement in Yemen, where multiple front lines remain active in the civil war and recent regional escalations have complicated a fragile status quo.

The Houthis, the official name for whom is Ansar Allah, have launched missile attacks on Israel in recent weeks, including one that targeted Ben Gurion Airport. Israel in turn struck Houthi-controlled infrastructure, including the destruction of a civilian aircraft at Sanaa International Airport. Grundberg warned that such escalations directly harm ordinary citizens.

“Yemenis living in Ansar Allah-controlled areas are unable to fly commercially from Sanaa Airport to seek medical treatment abroad, to travel for Hajj or visit their families,” he said.

He described the reopening of the airport in May 2022 as a key peace dividend of a now-lapsed truce agreement that year.

Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis in Yemen continues to deepen. Msuya described a deteriorating health and food-security situation affecting millions.

“Over 17 million people, or nearly half of Yemen’s population, are acutely hungry,” she told council members.

“Malnutrition affects 1.3 million pregnant and breastfeeding women and 2.3 million children under 5. Without sustained humanitarian support, an estimated 6 million more people could end up in emergency levels of food insecurity.”

Despite the challenges, Msuya noted some progress has been made, including the reopening of a key route between Aden and Sanaa via Al-Dhalea, which had been closed for nearly seven years.

“This development … shows that Yemen is not on a fixed, downhill trajectory,” she said. “With trust and the right tools, there remains hope.”

Grundberg also pointed to this development as a positive sign.

“I commend, again, the local facilitators across the front lines who worked to make this happen,” he said. “Yemen’s economy is in dire need of positive and trust-building steps such as these.”

However, the path forward in the country remains uncertain. Grundberg reported increased tensions around Marib, and troop movements in several governorates, warning that “conditions can change rapidly and unpredictably.”

Both officials reiterated that a long-term solution will require a political settlement and increased support from regional authorities.

Grundberg said he has held talks with the Yemeni government, the Houthis, and regional authorities including Saudi Arabia, Iran and Oman, and noted that there is a shared view that only negotiation can end the conflict.

He urged council members to “use your powerful voices, your diplomatic channels and your influence, to exert maximum pressure” on the Houthis both in the pursuit of peace and to secure the release of detainees.

Msuya concluded her remarks with three direct appeals: “Take the lead of the Senior Officials Meeting in May and follow up with scaled-up, flexible funding; take real action to see that UN and other detained colleagues are released…; (and) maintain your unified support for efforts toward lasting peace.”


Jordanian authorities arrest three individuals attempting to enter country

Jordanian authorities arrest three individuals attempting to enter country
Updated 12 June 2025
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Jordanian authorities arrest three individuals attempting to enter country

Jordanian authorities arrest three individuals attempting to enter country
  • Jordan has consistently faced challenges related to illegal infiltration and smuggling, particularly of narcotics
  • Jordan shares a border of 482 km with Israel and a border of 375 km with Syria

LONDON: Jordanian authorities announced that they thwarted an infiltration attempt on Thursday along the country’s extensive borders.

The Northern Military Zone, which is responsible for monitoring the borders with Syria and Israel, announced on Thursday that three individuals were detected attempting to cross the border illegally before being arrested. They have been handed over to the relevant authorities for further investigation.

The Jordanian Armed Forces announced its commitment to preventing all forms of infiltration and smuggling, ensuring the security and stability of the Kingdom, according to the Petra news agency.

Jordan shares a border of 482 km with Israel and a border of 375 km with Syria. The country has consistently faced challenges related to illegal infiltration and smuggling, particularly of narcotics, using both traditional methods and new techniques, such as drones.

Last week, the Northern Military Zone thwarted an infiltration attempt by four individuals who were attempting to illegally cross the border into Jordan from the north.


Egypt’s foreign minister discusses Iran nuclear negotiations, Gaza with US envoy

Egypt’s foreign minister discusses Iran nuclear negotiations, Gaza with US envoy
Updated 12 June 2025
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Egypt’s foreign minister discusses Iran nuclear negotiations, Gaza with US envoy

Egypt’s foreign minister discusses Iran nuclear negotiations, Gaza with US envoy
  • Badr Abdelatty says US-Iran negotiations are an important opportunity to achieve calm in the region
  • Oman to host sixth round of negotiations between Iran and the US on Sunday

LONDON: Badr Abdelatty, Egypt’s minister of foreign affairs, emphasized the need to persist in negotiations between the US and Iran over Tehran’s nuclear program during a phone call with Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff.

Abdelatty said the negotiations are an important opportunity to achieve calm, avoid escalation, and prevent the region from sliding into greater instability, WAM, the Emirates News Agency, reported.

Oman will host the sixth round of negotiations between Iran and the US on Sunday, Oman’s foreign minister said on Thursday.

Abdelatty and Witkoff, the US president’s special envoy for the Middle East, on Thursday addressed Egyptian and US efforts to reach a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip. They discussed the release of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners, as well as the flow of humanitarian aid into the Palestinian coastal enclave, according to WAM.

The Egyptian foreign minister highlighted the need for a lasting resolution to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict that meets the region’s aspirations for peace and stability.


France’s Macron praises Palestinian president’s ‘genuine willingness’ for peace

France’s Macron praises Palestinian president’s ‘genuine willingness’ for peace
Updated 12 June 2025
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France’s Macron praises Palestinian president’s ‘genuine willingness’ for peace

France’s Macron praises Palestinian president’s ‘genuine willingness’ for peace
  • Mahmoud Abbas’ commitment to elections and reforms welcomed
  • Comments come ahead of 2-state conference in New York next week

LONDON: France’s President Emmanuel Macron on Thursday praised Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas’ “concrete and unprecedented commitments” after receiving a letter from the latter ahead of the UN-backed Saudi-French conference on a two-state solution in Palestine.

In his letter on Monday, which was addressed to Macron and Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Abbas outlined the main steps to be taken to end the war on Gaza.

He called for the demilitarization of Hamas, the release of hostages, a ceasefire in Gaza and deployment of international forces to protect “the Palestinian people,” while reaffirming his commitment to reforms and elections.

Abbas also demanded an end to “the occupation and conflict once and for all” and halting settler activities.

In a post on X, Macron described the letter as “a decisive moment, praising the Palestinian leader for charting “a course toward a horizon of peace.”

 

 

“Concrete and unprecedented commitments that demonstrate a genuine willingness to move forward,” said Macron.

France and Saudi Arabia will co-chair the high-level International Conference for the Peaceful Settlement of the Palestinian Question and the Implementation of the Two-State Solution in New York next week.

The conference at the UN’s headquarters aims to achieve concrete steps toward the two-state solution.

In his letter, Abbas stressed the Palestinian Authority’s commitment to presidential and general elections within a year across the Occupied Territories — including East Jerusalem — under international supervision.

“The Palestinian people are entitled to live in freedom and dignity in their homeland. Palestine and Israel are entitled to exist as states, in peace and security, in conformity with international law,” Abbas wrote in his letter.

Reaffirming his commitment to the two-state solution, he said: “We are ready to conclude within a clear and binding timeline, and with international support, supervision and guarantees, a peace agreement that ends the Israeli occupation and resolves all outstanding and final status issues.”