Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
Graves are seen in a residential area in Omdurman, Sudan, November 10, 2024. (REUTERS)
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Updated 14 November 2024
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Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say

Sudan war deaths are likely much higher than recorded, researchers say
  • The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations

CAIRO/OMDURMAN: More than 61,000 people are estimated to have died in Khartoum state during the first 14 months of Sudan’s war, with evidence suggesting the toll from the devastating conflict is significantly higher than previously recorded, according to a new report by researchers in Britain and Sudan.
The estimate includes some 26,000 people who suffered violent deaths, a higher figure than one currently used by the United Nations for the entire country.
The preprint study by the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine’s Sudan Research Group, released on Wednesday before peer review, suggested that starvation and disease are increasingly becoming the leading causes of death reported across Sudan.
The estimated deaths from all causes in Khartoum state were at a rate 50 percent higher than the national average before the conflict between the army and paramilitary Rapid Support Forces erupted in April 2023, researchers said. The UN says the conflict has driven 11 million people from their homes and unleashed the world’s biggest hunger crisis. Nearly 25 million people — half of Sudan’s population — need aid as famine has taken hold in at least one displacement camp.
But counting the dead has been challenging.
Even in peace time, many deaths are not registered in Sudan, researchers say. As fighting intensified, people were cut off from places that record deaths, including hospitals, morgues and cemeteries. Repeated disruptions to Internet services and telecommunications left millions unable to contact the outside world. The study “tried to capture that invisibility” using a sampling technique known as “capture-recapture”, said lead author Maysoon Dahab, an infectious disease epidemiologist and co-director of the Sudan Research Group.
Originally designed for ecological research, the technique has been used in published studies to estimate the number of people killed during pro-democracy protests in Sudan in 2019 and the COVID-19 pandemic, when it was not possible to carry out full counts, she said.
Using data from at least two independent sources, researchers look for individuals who appear on multiple lists. The less overlap there is between the lists, the higher the chances that deaths have gone unrecorded, information that can be used to estimate the full number of deaths.
In this case, researchers compiled three lists of the dead. One was based on a public survey circulated via social media platforms between November 2023 and June 2024. The second used community activists and other “study ambassadors” to distribute the survey privately within their networks. And the third was compiled from obituaries posted on social media, a common practice in the cities of Khartoum, Omdurman and Bahri, which together make up the greater capital.
“Our findings suggest that deaths have largely gone undetected,” the researchers wrote.

UNCOUNTED TOLL
Deaths captured in the three lists made up just 5 percent of the estimated total for Khartoum state and 7 percent of those attributed to “intentional injury.” The findings suggest that other war-affected parts of the country could have experienced similar or worse tolls, the study said.
The researchers noted that their estimate of violent deaths in Khartoum state surpassed the 20,178 killings recorded across the country over the same period by the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data project (ACLED), a US-based crisis monitoring group.
ACLED’s data, which is based on reports from sources including news organizations, human rights groups and local authorities, has been cited by UN officials and other humanitarian workers.
Dahab said the researchers did not have sufficient data to estimate mortality levels in other parts of the country or determine how many deaths in all could be linked to the war.
The study also notes other limitations. The methodology used assumes that every death has an equal chance of showing up in the data, for example. However, well-known individuals and those who suffered violent deaths may have been more likely to be reported, the researchers said.
Paul Spiegel, who heads the Center for Humanitarian Health at the John Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and was not involved in the study, said there were issues with all three sources of data that could skew the estimates. But he said the researchers had factored such limitations into their methodology and analysis.
“While it is difficult to know how the various biases in this capture-recapture methodology could affect the overall numbers, it is a novel and important attempt to estimate the number of deaths and bring attention to this horrific war in Sudan,” he said.
An official with the Sudanese American Physicians Association, an organization that offers free health care across the country, said the findings appeared credible.
“The number might even be more,” its program manager, Abdulazim Awadalla, told Reuters, saying weakened immunity from malnutrition was making people more susceptible to infection.
“Simple diseases are killing people,” he said.
The study was funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

“WE BURIED HIM HERE“
Among the war’s many victims was Khalid Sanhouri, a musician whose death in Omdurman’s Mulazmeen neighborhood was announced on social media in July last year.
A neighbor, Mohammed Omar, told Reuters that friends and relatives were unable to get medical care for Sanhouri after he fell ill due to the intensity of the fighting at the time.
“There were no hospitals or pharmacies where we could get medicine, not even markets to buy food,” Omar said.
They couldn’t even reach the nearest graveyard.
“So, we buried him here,” Omar said, pointing to a grave just beyond the bullet-pocked wall surrounding the musician’s home.
Hundreds of graves have popped up next to homes across greater Khartoum since last year, residents say. With the return of the army to some neighborhoods, they have started relocating the bodies to Omdurman’s main cemetery.
There are as many as 50 burials a day there, undertaker Abdin Khidir told Reuters. The cemetery has expanded into an adjoining football field.
Still, the bodies keep coming, Khidir said.
The warring sides have traded blame for the growing toll.
Army spokesman Brig. Gen. Nabil Abdallah referred questions about the study’s estimates to the Ministry of Health but said: “The main cause of all this suffering is the terrorist Rapid Support militia (RSF), which has not hesitated from the first moment to target civilians.”
The health ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it has observed far fewer deaths than the estimates in the study. Its tally of war-related deaths stands at 5,565, it said.
The RSF did not dispute the study’s estimates, blaming the deaths in the capital on “deliberate air strikes on populated areas, in addition to artillery shelling and drone strikes.”
“It is known that the army is the only one with [such weapons],” it said in a statement to Reuters.
The war erupted from a power struggle between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the RSF ahead of a planned transition to civilian rule. The RSF quickly took over most of the capital and has now spread into at least half the country, though the military regained control of some neighborhoods in Omdurman and Bahri in recent months. Both sides have committed abuses that may amount to war crimes, including attacking civilians, a UN fact-finding mission said in September. The war has also produced ethnically driven violence in the western Darfur region blamed largely on the RSF.
However, the new report highlighted the significant and likely growing toll taken by the war’s indirect impacts, including hunger, disease and the collapse of health care.
Sick patients lined the hallways at Al-Shuhada hospital in Bahri, which has seen a spike in cases of malnutrition and diseases such as malaria, cholera and dengue fever.
Fresh fruits, vegetables and meat were hard to come by until the arrival of the army opened up supply routes, said hospital manager Hadeel Malek.
“As we all know, malnutrition leads to weak immunity in general,” she said. “This is one factor ... which led to many deaths, especially among pregnant women and children.”
Both sides deny impeding aid and commercial deliveries.


UN chief says situation in Gaza ‘appalling and apocalyptic’

UN chief says situation in Gaza ‘appalling and apocalyptic’
Updated 02 December 2024
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UN chief says situation in Gaza ‘appalling and apocalyptic’

UN chief says situation in Gaza ‘appalling and apocalyptic’
  • Urged international community to “build foundation for sustainable peace in Gaza and across Middle East”

CAIRO: The United Nations chief said Monday the situation in war-torn Gaza was “appalling and apocalyptic,” warning conditions faced by Palestinians in the territory may amount to the “gravest international crimes.”
In remarks read out on his behalf at a Cairo conference aimed at increasing humanitarian aid, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres urged the international community to “build a foundation for sustainable peace in Gaza and across the Middle East.”
The war in Gaza broke out when Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked southern Israel on October 7, 2023, resulting in 1,208 deaths, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally of Israeli official figures.
Israel’s retaliatory campaign has killed 44,429 people in Gaza, according to figures from the territory’s health ministry that the UN considers reliable.
Guterres highlighted the devastating toll of the conflict and the urgent need for international action.
“Malnutrition is rampant... Famine is imminent. Meanwhile, the health system has collapsed,” he said.
The UN chief added that Gaza now has “the highest number of children amputees per capita anywhere in the world,” with “many losing limbs and undergoing surgeries without even anesthesia.”
The secretary-general also criticized the severe restrictions on aid delivery, calling the current levels “grossly insufficient.”
According to the UN Palestinian refugee agency (UNRWA) count, only 65 aid trucks per day had been able to enter Gaza this past month, compared to a pre-war average of 500.
International aid organizations have repeatedly raised alarm over the deteriorating conditions in Gaza, warning that civilians are on the brink of famine.
They have said aid shipments reaching the enclave are now at their lowest since the start of the war.
Israel, which early in the conflict imposed a complete siege for a period on the Hamas-ruled territory, has blamed aid issues on what it says is the inability of relief organizations to handle and distribute large quantities of aid.
UN’s Guterres said on Monday that the blockade of aid to Gaza “is not a crisis of logistics” but rather “a crisis of political will and of respect for fundamental principles of international humanitarian law.”
UNRWA said all the attempts it has made to deliver aid into northern Gaza have either been “denied” or “impeded” between October 6, 2024 and November 25, amid fierce fighting in the area.
Guterres said “if UNRWA is forced to close, the responsibility of replacing its vital services ... would rest with Israel.”
In his speech at the conference, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini said that the agency “remains the backbone of humanitarian response” in Gaza.
He also called for the use of “a robust international legal and political framework” to ensure the continuation of humanitarian aid to Gaza.
“Without this, humanitarians, however selfless and courageous, cannot stay and deliver,” he added.


Jordan, UN agencies meet to discuss strengthening social development

Jordan, UN agencies meet to discuss strengthening social development
Updated 02 December 2024
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Jordan, UN agencies meet to discuss strengthening social development

Jordan, UN agencies meet to discuss strengthening social development
  • The meeting, attended by ministry stakeholders, focused on enhancing social programs and services

AMMAN: Jordan’s minister of social development met UN Resident Coordinator Sheri Ritsema-Anderson and representatives of UN agencies in Amman on Monday to discuss bolstering collaboration on social development initiatives.

The meeting, attended by ministry stakeholders, focused on enhancing social programs and services. Minister Wafa Bani Mustafa lauded the strong partnership between the ministry and UN agencies, highlighting their contributions to a range of projects.

“The collaboration has been instrumental in advancing key initiatives, including the National Social Protection Strategy 2026-2033,” she said.

Among the measures discussed was the professionalization of social work through a newly introduced system, which aims to improve service quality by creating a registry of certified social workers who will undergo specialized training, Jordan News Agency reported.

Bani Mustafa also stressed the significance of fostering partnerships with associations, forming coalitions and launching sustainable, productive projects.

She highlighted the impact of programs supported by UN agencies, including the UN Women Oasis Program, which empowers women and girls through training opportunities, and the Makani project, which equips children and youth with education and entrepreneurial skills.

Discussions also reviewed future plans to enhance support for vulnerable groups, including people with disabilities, orphans and those without family support.

Key topics included improving services under the National Aid Fund and advancing women’s empowerment strategies within the framework of Jordan’s economic modernization vision.

UN agency representatives reiterated their commitment to supporting the ministry’s initiatives, commending its dedication to improving social services and empowering women, Jordan News Agency reported.


‘Foreign interference’ not behind Syria flareup: Turkiye

‘Foreign interference’ not behind Syria flareup: Turkiye
Updated 02 December 2024
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‘Foreign interference’ not behind Syria flareup: Turkiye

‘Foreign interference’ not behind Syria flareup: Turkiye

ANKARA: Turkiye, which backs militant factions in Syria, rejected Monday any suggestion that “foreign interference” was behind the offensive launched by Islamists in the country’s north.
“It would be a mistake at this time to try to explain the events in Syria by any foreign interference,” Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said at a joint press conference in Ankara with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araghchi.
The recent flareup which saw Damascus losing swathes of territory in northwestern Syria, including Aleppo, during a lightning offensive by militants, was due to the government’s failure to engage in dialogue with armed opposition groups, he said.
“The lack of talks between [Damascus] and the opposition has brought the problem to this point,” he said, describing it as “a mistake to ignore the legitimate demands of the opposition.”
“Damascus must reconcile with its own people and the legitimate opposition,” he added.
Turkiye did “not want an escalation of the civil war,” said the minister who told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a phone call Sunday that Ankara would support moves “to reduce tension” in Syria.
Araghchi said it was crucial “to protect the achievements of the Astana process” to end Syria’s civil war, which groups Ankara, Moscow and Tehran, and pledged to convene fresh ministerial talks in the Kazakh capital “soon.”
The last such meeting took place in mid-November.
“Syria must not become a center for terrorist groups,” warned Araghchi in reference to the militant factions that staged last week’s attack.
Fidan also said it was “important that terror organizations do not take advantage of the instability” although he was referring to Kurdish-led rebels that Ankara sees as an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). The PKK has led a led a decades-long insurgency against Turkiye.
Turkish troops and Turkiye-backed militant factions control much of northern Syria, and Ankara is concerned that the recent outbreak of fighting could swell the flow of people fleeing across the border.
“We don’t want civilians to be killed or cities bombarded or people being displaced. We want these displaced people to be able to go back. The flow of refugees must be reversed,” he said.
Turkiye is already hosting some 3.2 million Syrian refugees, according to UN data.
Syria’s Bashar Assad on Monday branded the Islamist-led offensive as a bid to redraw the map of the region in line with US interests in a phone call with his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian.
Both Iran and Russia, which have backed Assad since Syria’s civil war broke out in 2011, have said they will help Damascus fight back after losing Aleppo, with Tehran confirming it would keep its military advisers in Syria.


Two dead in attack on Sudan displacement camp: activists

Two dead in attack on Sudan displacement camp: activists
Updated 02 December 2024
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Two dead in attack on Sudan displacement camp: activists

Two dead in attack on Sudan displacement camp: activists
  • The Zamzam camp, south of the regional capital El-Fasher, was hit by heavy rocket and artillery fire from the RSF on Sunday morning
  • Both sides face accusations of war crimes, including targeting civilians, shelling residential areas, and blocking or looting aid

Port Sudan, Sudan: At least two people were killed when Sudan’s paramilitary Rapid Support Forces attacked a camp for displaced people in the North Darfur region, activists said on Monday.
The Zamzam camp, south of the regional capital El-Fasher, was hit by heavy rocket and artillery fire from the RSF on Sunday morning, said the local resistance committee in El-Fasher.
The “indiscriminate” attack killed at least two people and wounded a dozen others, said the committee, one of hundreds of volunteer groups coordinating aid in Sudan.
The northeast African country has been gripped by a war between the regular army and RSF that has killed tens of thousands and displaced more than 11 million since April last year.
Both sides face accusations of war crimes, including targeting civilians, shelling residential areas, and blocking or looting aid.
UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher, after visiting Sudan and neighboring Chad last week, called for immediate international action to address the crisis.
“It is a tough situation out there, the biggest humanitarian crisis in the world. And I’ve been talking to local people to host communities,” Fletcher said in a weekend statement.
Nearly 26 million people — about half the population — face the threat of mass starvation in Sudan as both warring sides have been accused of using hunger as a weapon of war.
“These numbers are staggering, and we cannot turn our backs,” Fletcher said.


ICC member states must act against Israeli, US threats: HRW

ICC member states must act against Israeli, US threats: HRW
Updated 02 December 2024
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ICC member states must act against Israeli, US threats: HRW

ICC member states must act against Israeli, US threats: HRW
  • International Criminal Court has faced ‘extreme pressure’ since issuing arrest warrants for Netanyahu, Gallant
  • Human Rights Watch: ‘Crucial work’ at The Hague must continue ‘without obstruction’

LONDON: International Criminal Court member countries must oppose Israeli and US efforts to undermine the court follows its issuing of arrest warrants against Israeli leaders, Human Rights Watch said on Monday.

The organization released a 24-page report outlining recommendations to member countries ensuring that the ICC receives the “political backing, resources and cooperation” it needs to carry out its mandate.

The world’s top international court has faced “extreme pressure” since issuing the warrants on Nov. 21, HRW said.

Warrants were issued for the arrests of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and Mohammed Deif, a Hamas commander.

US lawmakers renewed threats of sanctions against the court and its officials after the warrants were issued.

Liz Evenson, HRW’s international justice director, said ICC warrants “send a critical message that no one is above the law. ICC member countries should make a commitment during their annual meeting (on Dec. 2-7) to take all necessary steps to ensure that the ICC’s crucial work for justice can continue without obstruction.”

HRW warned that US sanctions against the ICC would have “wide-reaching consequences for global justice.”

Legal uncertainty and apprehension for NGOs, consultants and lawyers could arise as a result of sanctions, which are “a tool to be used against those responsible for the most serious crimes, not against those promoting justice,” HRW said.

After the issuing of the warrants, many ICC member countries voiced support for the court’s decision, yet some avoided making explicit commitments to enforcing them.

Hungary’s President Viktor Orban said he would invite Netanyahu to visit his country despite Hungary, an ICC member, being obliged to arrest anyone wanted by The Hague.

The French government last week appeared to claim that Netanyahu enjoys immunity from arrest as Israel is not an ICC member. Judges at The Hague have rejected this view.

Member countries must condemn Israeli and US threats against the court and its supporters, including civil society organizations, NGOs and human rights defenders, HRW said.

The annual meeting should result in “concrete steps” aimed at protecting the court from “coercive measures,” the organization added.

“The ICC needs the support of its member countries to fulfill its ambitious global mandate of delivering justice for the most serious crimes,” Evenson said.

“Member country support needs to be consistent over time and across situations to avoid double standards, and uphold the court’s legitimacy for victims and affected communities.”