International community must engage Syria’s new rulers

It is probably too early to announce the end of the Syrian conflict, although the departure of Bashar Assad is an important inflection point. It is nearly impossible to speak with any finality about the demise of a regime that has ruled Syria for 61 years and engaged in violence and gross human rights violations almost from Day 1, leaving an embittered population thirsty for revenge.

In 1963, a coup by Baathist military officers toppled Syria’s democratically elected government. It ruled the country with an iron fist. In 1970, one of those officers, Hafez Assad, forced out his colleagues and ruled Syria single-handedly until his death in 2000. During those years, tens of thousands of Syrians, Lebanese, Palestinians and others were killed by his security forces, disappeared or went missing. During his reign, I took part in a project to document those violations, the enormity of which was beyond belief in terms of depravity and cruelty. It is difficult to describe the deep revulsion that many Syrians and Lebanese felt toward Hafez Assad because of those crimes, especially as they were forced to declare their undying loyalty to him and sing his praises.

However, the father’s sins paled when compared to those of his son, Bashar, who succeeded him in 2000 and ruled Syria until early this week. He surpassed his father, committing unspeakable crimes against humanity. Hundreds of thousands are believed to have been killed, disappeared or tortured and ruined for life. During his reign of terror, about half of Syria’s population became homeless in their own country or were forced to seek refuge abroad.

Syria’s economy is in ruins, as the regime’s officials divided the country’s dwindling spoils among themselves, supplemented by income from smuggling, Captagon sales and selling their influence. Large swaths of its territory have long been outside of central government control, including oil-producing areas. State institutions were engineered to primarily serve Bashar Assad, his family and his close associates.

Syria’s economy is in ruins, as the regime’s officials divided the country’s dwindling spoils among themselves

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

The new rulers have inherited a country torn apart, geographically, politically, economically, ethnically and by religious affiliation. Assad is out, but most of his followers are probably still in Syria. Russia, Turkiye and the US all have forces there and they support different factions. Many ethnic and religious groups have their own territorial claims, challenging the central government’s prerogative of control and territorial integrity. In addition, the triumphant groups are a coalition composed of different factions, some of which have waged war against each other.

Israel is also testing the new rulers and trying to provoke them. According to its statements, it has this week launched hundreds of air raids to destroy Syria’s weapons and military equipment.

With little experience in governing, the militias that chased Assad out may not be able to fix all that is broken in Syria on their own. They have said a lot of the right things, but implementing them is another matter and so is bringing about discipline in their ranks. The international community needs to help.

In the past, many countries have shown tremendous support for the Syrian people, giving generously at donor conferences, the last of which — the Brussels Conference on “Supporting the future of Syria and the region,” the eighth of its kind held since the start of the crisis in 2011 — was held in May. The ninth conference could be held in the near future to accelerate aid to Syria, now that the restrictions that Assad put on aid delivery have been removed. This time, it could also include pledges for stabilization and early recovery, both of which are urgently needed to help refugees and internally displaced persons return to their homes.

With little experience in governing, the militias that chased Assad out may not be able to fix Syria on their own

Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg

An additional framework to mobilize support for the Syrian people is the Friends of Syria group, which was active in the early days of the crisis. It met several times and formed a number of working groups. Membership fluctuated but it always included countries such as Egypt, France, Germany, Italy, Jordan, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkiye, the UAE, the UK and the US. Organizations such as the UN, the Gulf Cooperation Council, the EU, the Arab League and the Organization of Islamic Cooperation also took part. Not all these former members of the group need to join at the start; some may have reconsidered. When reconvened in whatever formulation, the Friends of Syria could form working groups, as in the first version, focusing on politics, economic assistance, security and the rule of law.

Without international engagement, Damascus’ new rulers may fall back on their old revolutionary ways, which are not the best way to govern a fractured place such as Syria or to navigate the complicated international relations the country has to deal with.

If left to their own devices, the revolutionaries may follow other recent examples. As we know, toppling Saddam Hussein in 2003 did not end Iraq’s problems, nor did getting rid of Omar Bashir end Sudan’s troubles.

Without international engagement, the Syrian people may discover that they have traded Assad’s regime for a similar one. As George Bernard Shaw wrote in “Man and Superman,” “Revolutions have never lightened the burden of tyranny; they have only shifted it to another shoulder.”

Or infighting may ensue, as happens too frequently after revolutions triumph and competition intensifies. The French revolutionary Georges Danton famously said in 1794: “The revolution, like Saturn, devours its own children,” when he started opposing the excessive use of violence and was sentenced to death for doing so.

• Dr. Abdel Aziz Aluwaisheg is the Gulf Cooperation Council assistant secretary-general for political affairs and negotiation. The views expressed here are personal and do not necessarily represent the GCC. X: @abuhamad1