2024 Year in Review: When turmoil and divisions deepened in Libya

2024 Year in Review: When turmoil and divisions deepened in Libya
Short Url
Updated 29 December 2024
Follow

2024 Year in Review: When turmoil and divisions deepened in Libya

2024 Year in Review: When turmoil and divisions deepened in Libya
  • Fractured governance blamed for cycles of conflict and foreign meddling among other problems in 2024
  • Local elections failed to provide a pathway to political reconciliation, stability and sovereignty

LONDON: When the Arab uprisings swept through the Middle East and North Africa in 2011, many in the West hoped the fall of these entrenched regimes would herald a new era of development and good governance. Instead, it marked the beginning of a period of unprecedented suffering for millions.

Nearly 14 years later, in the wake of a grinding civil war, there are now renewed hopes that Syria, after its brutally suppressed uprising, might finally be stepping into the light following the toppling of the Bashar Assad regime.

However, as a diverse array of victorious armed opposition groups struggle to impose order and unity on a fractured nation, many observers share a common fear — that Syria could become another Libya.




In this Nov. 3, 2008 file photo, Libyan leader Moammar Gadhafi attends a wreath laying ceremony in the Belarus capital Minsk. (AP)

Indeed, since the NATO-backed uprising that ousted Muammar Qaddafi, Libya has become a byword for state failure — divided between rival administrations, plagued by criminality, and used as a proxy battleground by foreign powers keen to exploit its oil and strategic location.

While 2024 offered glimpses of possible reconciliation between the North African nation’s competing factions, steps toward national elections, and perhaps even justice for its long-suffering citizens, the country remains deeply unstable as it enters the new year.

In April, Abdoulaye Bathily, the UN special envoy to Libya, resigned, citing the country’s entrenched political stalemate. His resignation followed 18 months of attempts to mediate between Libya’s divided factions, but a “lack of political will and good faith” thwarted progress.

“The selfish resolve of current leaders to maintain the status quo must stop,” Bathily told the Security Council. The delay of the national reconciliation conference, originally scheduled for April, highlighted the ongoing gridlock.

While Libya’s oil-rich economy offers immense potential, it remains plagued by a fractured political landscape — with the Tripoli-based UN-recognized Government of National Unity headed by Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh opposing the eastern administration allied with General Khalifa Haftar, commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army.

Bathily’s departure underscored the international community’s struggle to bring stability to a nation divided since the 2011 uprising. Despite his efforts, Libya’s entrenched rivalries and external meddling have kept progress elusive, prolonging the suffering of its population.

Libya’s fragile peace was repeatedly shattered in 2024, with violence escalating across major cities and border regions. In May, clashes in Zawiya between militias loyal to the GNU left one dead and six injured.

Violence escalated in Tripoli in July, where clashes between the Interior Ministry’s Special Deterrence Forces, also known as RADA, and Presidential Council units resulted in 13 fatalities, including civilians. August brought another tragedy in Tripoli, with nine killed in militia fighting.

Although political leaders have periodically called for ceasefires, the lack of cohesive state authority has allowed armed factions to exploit and perpetuate the chaos, leaving Libyans trapped in repeated cycles of violence.

Amid this summer of bloodshed, there was a glimmer of justice. In July, Libya’s Derna Criminal Court sentenced 12 officials to up to 27 years in prison for their roles in the catastrophic Sept. 10, 2023, dam collapse.

The disaster, triggered by Storm Daniel, unleashed torrents of water that obliterated entire neighborhoods in the coastal city of Derna, claiming thousands of lives.




Libyan military commander Khalifa Haftar gestures as he speaks during Independence Day celebrations in Benghazi, Libya December 24, 2020. (REUTERS)

Neglected infrastructure and corruption were deemed key factors in the disaster, as funds earmarked for dam maintenance were found to have been misappropriated. The court’s verdict represented a rare moment of accountability in a nation fraught with impunity.

While some saw this as a step toward justice, critics argue systemic reform is still absent.

Rebuilding efforts in Derna remain slow, hindered by political infighting. Meanwhile, the disaster’s survivors, grappling with trauma and displacement, want to see comprehensive infrastructure upgrades to prevent future tragedies.

September brought a breakthrough as Libya’s rival legislative bodies agreed to appoint Naji Mohamed Issa Belqasem as interim central bank governor, ending months of turmoil over financial leadership.

This crisis erupted when Tripoli’s Presidential Council moved to replace longstanding Governor Sadiq Al-Kabir, leading eastern factions to halt oil production in protest.




Members of the "Tripoli Brigade", a militia loyal to the UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA), sit in the back of a pickup truck as they parade through the Martyrs' Square at the centre of the GNA-held Libyan capital Tripoli on July 10, 2020. (AFP)

Libya’s oil-dependent economy suffered immensely, with crude exports plummeting from 1 million barrels per day in August to just 400,000 in September.

The UN facilitated the agreement, urging an end to unilateral decisions that deepen institutional divisions. While the resolution temporarily eased tensions, it highlighted the broader issue of competing power centers undermining Libya’s economic stability.

With the interim governor tasked to form a board of directors, the deal’s success hinges on sustained cooperation, a rare commodity in Libya’s fragmented political landscape.

The murder of Abdel-Rahman Milad, a notorious Libyan Coast Guard commander known as “Bija,” in September spotlighted Libya’s lawlessness and corruption.

Sanctioned by the UN in 2018 for human trafficking, Milad symbolized the overlap of state and criminal enterprise.




Abdoulaye Bathily, the UN special envoy to Libya. (X @Bathily_UNSMIL)

Speculation still abounds about the reason behind his killing — ranging from militia infighting to fears he might expose high-level corruption.

Milad’s killing also raised questions about the EU’s reliance on Libyan partners accused of human rights abuses to help control the flow of migration to Europe.

Observers see his death as a byproduct of power struggles between rival gangs and a reflection of Libya’s inability to reform its fractured governance and security apparatus.

While Milad’s death may serve as a test for Libya’s broken justice system, there has been some progress on addressing historic injustices.

October saw the International Criminal Court unseal arrest warrants for six Libyans implicated in war crimes during the Second Libyan Civil War of 2014-20. The suspects, linked to the Kaniyat militia, face charges including murder, torture and sexual violence.

These crimes occurred in Tarhuna, a town notorious for mass graves uncovered in 2020 after the militia’s retreat.




A picture taken on September 24, 2020 shows the Brega oil port some 270kms west of Libya's eastern city of Benghazi. (AFP)

The ICC warrants mark a significant step toward accountability and highlight ongoing international scrutiny of Libya’s human rights record. However, Libya’s weak judicial system and fragmented governance pose challenges to enforcing these warrants.

As families of victims seek closure, the outcome may set a precedent for addressing atrocities committed during Libya’s protracted conflict.

In November, the GNU’s Interior Minister Emad Al-Trabelsi sparked widespread condemnation from human rights groups when he announced plans to establish a morality police force.

The new force would enforce conservative social norms, including mandatory veiling for girls over the age of nine and restrictions on women’s mobility without a male guardian.

Al-Trabelsi justified the move as preserving “Islamic social values,” dismissing personal freedom as incompatible with Libyan society.




Fighters of Wagner private mercenary group pose for a picture as they get deployed near the headquarters of the Southern Military District in the city of Rostov-on-Don, Russia, June 24, 2023. (REUTERS)

However, the measures appear to have been slapped down by the GNU. There are also doubts that the government even has the means to enforce such rules.

“Al-Trabelsi’s sweeping moral measures were never likely to materialize,” Jalel Harchaoui, a Libya expert and senior fellow at the Royal United Services Institute, told Arab News. “Enforcing such rules requires broad territorial control, religious credibility, and a clear moral gap to address.

“Much of Libya’s population is already conservative, the Interior Ministry lacks religious backing, and no armed actor — Al-Trabelsi included — can truly project power citywide, let alone nationwide.

“Unsurprisingly, nothing substantial has followed the initial announcement, which had drawn so much international attention.”

While national elections intended to reunify the country have been repeatedly postponed, November’s municipal polls marked a rare democratic exercise, with voting held simultaneously in Libya’s east and west for the first time since 2014.

Despite logistical challenges and political tensions, voter turnout hit 77 percent, signaling public demand for stability. The elections even included areas previously under military control, where mayors had been replaced with appointees.




Libyans vote in the country's local elections in Misrata, Libya's third-largest city, on November 16, 2024. (AFP)

International observers, including the G7, praised the process as a step toward national reconciliation. However, skepticism remains about whether these local elections can pave the way for overdue presidential and parliamentary votes.

Libya has become one of the busiest and most deadly routes used by migrants and refugees attempting to reach Europe — something that armed groups have long facilitated for a profit or have sought to curtail, often brutally, in exchange for EU funding.

Tragedy struck Libya’s migrant routes repeatedly in 2024, with multiple fatal incidents highlighting the perils faced by those seeking refuge.

In September, a boat capsized near Tobruk, leaving 22 missing. October brought another disaster, with only one survivor from a vessel carrying 13 passengers. Then in November, 28 people disappeared off Libya’s coast when their rubber boat got into difficulty.

Rights groups criticized both Libyan and European policies that push migrants into perilous crossings. The Mediterranean remains a graveyard for those fleeing violence and poverty, with international efforts to address the crisis falling short.

The Kremlin’s strategic ambitions in Libya are likely to keep growing in the new year as it seeks to offset losses in Syria following the overthrow earlier this month of Assad, a key ally who had permitted Russian use of air and naval bases.




Handout picture taken and released on July 5, 2019 by German migrant rescue NGO Sea-Eye, shows an overloaded rubber boat spotted by Sea-Eye in international waters off the Libyan coast. (AFP)

Moscow has deepened ties with General Haftar’s Libyan National Army in recent years, using Libya as a launchpad for expanding its influence in North Africa and the Sahel.

The Wagner Group, a Russian private military contractor recently rebranded as the Africa Corps, has established bases in southern Libya, supporting resource extraction and military operations across the continent.

Russia’s efforts to consolidate its presence in Libya align with broader objectives to counter NATO and secure Mediterranean access for its ships.

As Libya’s rival factions vie for power, analysts believe this kind of foreign influence could further complicate efforts to achieve peace and sovereignty.

While Syria embarks on its own delicate transition out of war and dictatorship, Libya stands as a cautionary tale for what can happen when factionalism, greed, and foreign interests are allowed to trump the needs and aspirations of a long-suffering people.

 

 


Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East

Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East
Updated 09 February 2025
Follow

Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East

Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East
  • Though a complete neophyte in the world of diplomacy, Witkoff was named as special envoy to the Middle East only a week after Trump’s election, a reflection of the two men’s close relationship
  • “And this guy knows real estate,” National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, appearing alongside the special envoy, said with a smile

WASHINGTON: He has no foreign policy experience but sports a reputation as a talented negotiator unafraid to speak his mind. And Donald Trump’s special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has already made his mark.
A close friend to the US president, 67-year-old real estate magnate Witkoff is credited with playing a key role in negotiating the ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and the Hamas armed group.
The truce took effect January 19, on the eve of Trump’s inauguration for a second term in the White House.
This week, Witkoff found himself in the spotlight, defending the US president’s stunning suggestion that he wanted to “take over” the Gaza Strip and move its two million Palestinian inhabitants elsewhere.
“When the president talks about cleaning it out, he talks about making it habitable, and this is a long-range plan,” Witkoff told reporters at the White House just ahead of a joint news conference by Trump and visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“And this guy knows real estate,” National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, appearing alongside the special envoy, said with a smile.
Speaking later that day on Fox News, Witkoff continued laying out the administration’s justification for the notion of a large-scale relocation of Palestinians from Gaza — even as the idea drew fire in the region, with some calling it tantamount to ethnic cleansing.
“A better life is not necessarily tied to the physical space that you’re in today,” he said, seeming to gloss over the complexities of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trump had nothing but praise for Witkoff at the White House news conference.
“Steve, stand up, Steve, please. What a job you’ve done. Quite a good job. You’ve done a fantastic job,” he said.
It was Witkoff, a billionaire like his friend and a regular golfing partner of his, who was called on to introduce the new president at a celebratory gathering at a Washington arena following his January 20 inauguration.

Though a complete neophyte in the world of diplomacy, Witkoff was named as special envoy to the Middle East only a week after Trump’s election, a reflection of the two men’s close relationship.
Eight years earlier, after Trump was elected for his first term, he named another diplomatic novice — his son-in-law Jared Kushner — to the same position.
Even before Trump took office, Witkoff joined in the Gaza ceasefire talks, taking part in a final round of negotiations in early January alongside Brett McGurk, the Middle East adviser to then-president Joe Biden.
It was a rare collaboration between an outgoing and incoming US administration.
After attending the talks in the Qatari capital of Doha, Witkoff flew to Israel on a Saturday — interrupting Netanyahu on the Jewish Sabbath — in an urgent bid to finalize an agreement.
Then on January 29, Witkoff traveled to Gaza, much of which has been reduced to rubble after 15 months of an Israeli offensive launched in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.
He was the first US official to visit the territory since the war began.
In an article published Thursday by Foreign Policy journal, Steven Cook, an expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Witkoff’s lack of diplomatic experience could be an advantage, giving him a fresh perspective.
Still, he added: “The Israel-Palestine conflict is not a real estate deal.”
Born on March 15, 1957, in the New York borough of the Bronx, Witkoff made his fortune in real estate, first as a corporate lawyer and then at the head of big realty firms.
In 1997, he founded the Witkoff Group, which describes itself as “one part developer, one part investor (and) one part landscape-changer.” His wife and a son work there.
A graduate of Hofstra University near New York, Witkoff has several children, including one who died in 2011, aged 22, from an OxyContin overdose.
 

 


’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family

’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family
Updated 09 February 2025
Follow

’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family

’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family
  • The family reunion, away from the media spotlight but filmed and photographed by the Israeli authorities, was intimate

TEL AVIV: After 16 months of captivity in the Gaza Strip, Ohad Ben Ami found the strength to run toward his daughters, even cracking a joke during their emotional reunion, filled with both joy and tears.
“Dad, is it really you? I can’t believe you’re here,” said one of his daughters, her eyes wide with disbelief, as the freed Israeli-German hostage embraced her at Tel Aviv’s Ichilov Hospital, following his release by Hamas militants during the fifth hostage-prisoner swap on Saturday.
“Yes, I’m here,” Ben Ami replied, hugging his loved ones who had been waiting anxiously for his return at the hospital.
“I left XXL and came back medium,” joked the 56-year-old, who, according to doctors at the hospital, had lost a significant amount of weight in captivity.
“I have so much to catch up on. It feels like someone has ripped me away and time kept passing.
“I have a million things pending, and I need answers ... And yes, I need to know what happened that day,” said Ben Ami, referring to October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants attacked Israel.
The family reunion, away from the media spotlight but filmed and photographed by the Israeli authorities, was intimate.
The footage offered a stark contrast to those captured earlier that morning in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, where Ben Ami, emaciated and with a short white beard, was paraded by masked Hamas militants before being released alongside two other hostages, Eli Sharabi and Or Levy.
Now free from wearing a T-shirt marked “Hamas prisoner” and freshly shaven, Ben Ami appeared to have a new lease of life as he entered the room where his three daughters and mother were waiting.

Laughter and tears filled the space while from among those gathered someone shouted: “What a handsome guy you are!“
Within moments they were catching up on the months lost in captivity. Ben Ami learnt that one of his daughters had enlisted in the Israeli army. “I’m proud of you,” he told her.
“In the initial medical assessment conducted, it is evident that Ohad returned in a severe nutritional state and had lost a significant amount of his body weight,” Gil Fire, deputy director at Ichilov Medical Center in Tel Aviv said, adding Ben Ami had shown he was “resilient in spirit.”
Ben Ami and his wife were seized by Palestinian militants on October 7, 2023, from kibbutz Beeri, close to the Gaza border, during the Hamas attack that ignited the war.
Two of their daughters, who were with them that day, survived the attack.
His wife was released on November 29, 2023, during a week-long truce, the first of the war.
Sharabi, also from Beeri, did not have the chance for such a reunion.
His wife and two daughters were killed in the attack, and it appears unlikely that he was aware of this at the time of his release.
Draped in an Israeli flag, Sharabi was welcomed with tears at Sheba Hospital in Ramat Gan by his two sisters and brother, his head covered with a talith, the Jewish prayer shawl.
The reunion of Levy with his family was a sober one, marked by long embraces and crying.
He and his wife, Einav Levy, were attending the Nova festival, the site of the worst massacre committed on October 7, where he was taken hostage while she was killed.
 

 


Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap

Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap
Updated 09 February 2025
Follow

Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap

Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap
  • The fifth exchange since the truce took effect last month came as negotiations were set to begin on the next phase of the ceasefire, which is intended to pave the way for a permanent end to the war

DEIR EL-BALAH, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered negotiators on Saturday to return to Qatar to discuss the fragile ceasefire in the war with Hamas, after the fifth hostage-prisoner swap agreed under the truce was completed.
He repeated his vow to crush Hamas and free all remaining hostages, denouncing the militant group as “monsters” after the handover of three captives in Gaza who appeared emaciated and were forced to speak on a stage.
The hospital treating the three Israeli hostages released from Gaza on Saturday said Or Levy and Eli Sharabi were in a “poor medical condition,” while Ohad Ben Ami was in a “severe nutritional state.”
Of the 183 inmates released by Israel in return, the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club advocacy group said seven required hospitalization and decried “brutality” and mistreatment in jail.
While 41 of those released returned to the West Bank city of Ramallah, four were released in Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem, 131 were sent to Gaza and seven were deported to Egypt.
The fifth exchange since the truce took effect last month came as negotiations were set to begin on the next phase of the ceasefire, which is intended to pave the way for a permanent end to the war.
But senior Hamas official Bassem Naim on Saturday said Israel’s “procrastination and lack of commitment in implementing the first phase... exposes this agreement to danger and thus it may stop or collapse.”
He also described, in an interview with AFP, the condition of the hostages as “acceptable under the difficult circumstances that the Gaza Strip was living.”
Saturday’s swap followed remarks by President Donald Trump suggesting the United States should take control of the Gaza Strip and clear out its inhabitants, sparking global outrage.
The three Israeli hostages, who were all seized by militants during Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the war, “crossed the border into Israeli territory” on Saturday, the Israeli military said.
With their return, 73 out of 251 hostages taken during the attack now remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Jubilant crowds in Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv cheered as they watched live footage of the hostages, flanked by masked gunmen, brought on stage in Deir el-Balah before being handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross.
But the joy at their release was quickly overtaken by concern for their condition, with all three appearing thin and pale.
Sharabi’s cousin Yochi Sardinayof said “he doesn’t look well.”
“I’m sure he will now receive the right treatment and he will get stronger... He has an amazing family, and we will all be there for him.”
The choreographed handover included forced statements from the three on stage, in which they stated support for finalizing the next phases of the Israel-Hamas truce.
The “disturbing images” from Gaza show that “we must get them all out,” said the Hostages and Missing Families Forum campaign group.
The ICRC meanwhile called on “all parties, including the mediators, to take responsibility to ensure that future releases are dignified and private.”
Sharabi, 52, and Ben Ami, a 56-year-old dual German citizen, were both abducted from their homes in kibbutz Beeri when militants stormed the small community near the Gaza border.
Sharabi lost his wife and two daughters in the attack.
Levy was abducted from the Nova music festival, where gunmen murdered his wife.
In the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah, relatives and supporters gathered to welcome inmates released by Israel, embracing them and cheering as they stepped off the bus that brought them from nearby Ofer prison.
But Fakhri Barghouti, 71, whose son was among the prisoners, told AFP that Israeli soldiers had stormed his home and beaten him, warning him not to celebrate his son’s release.
“They entered after midnight, smashed everything, took me into a side room, and beat me before leaving,” Barghouti told AFP.
“I was taken to the hospital, where it was found that I had a broken rib.”
The Israeli military said in a statement it had “conveyed messages that celebrations and processions in support of terrorism are prohibited during the release of the terrorists,” but did not give an immediate response when asked about Barghouti’s allegations.
Israel’s prison service said that “183 terrorists... were released” to the West Bank, annexed east Jerusalem and Gaza.
The Palestinian Prisoners’ Club advocacy group said “all the prisoners who were released today are in need of medical care... as a result of the brutality they were subjected” to in jail.
Hamas in a statement accused Israel of undertaking a “policy of... the slow killing of prisoners.”
Gaza militants have so far freed 21 hostages, including 16 Israelis in exchange for hundreds of mostly Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails.
Five Thai hostages freed last week from Gaza were discharged on Saturday from a hospital in central Israel, where they had been treated since their release, and were headed back to their home country.
The ceasefire, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, aims to secure the release of 17 more hostages during the remainder of the 42-day first phase.
Hamas’s October 2023 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliation has killed at least 48,181 people in Gaza, the majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The United Nations considers the figures reliable.


Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians

Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians
Updated 09 February 2025
Follow

Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians

Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians
  • Arab League's Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki reaffirmed the unity of the Arab position in rejecting displacement efforts

CAIRO: The Arab League on Saturday reiterated its firm stance against the displacement of Palestinians, warning that such actions undermined the Palestinian cause and regional stability.

Speaking in a televised interview on Saturday, the Arab League's Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki reaffirmed the unity of the Arab position in rejecting displacement efforts and expressed strong support for the Palestinians, as well as for Jordan and Egypt in their opposition to such moves.

Zaki emphasized that the Arab League was actively working to mobilize both regional and international support for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

He also underscored the organization's commitment to countering Israeli claims while reinforcing the principle of a two-state solution as the foundation for peace in the region.

The ambassador further revealed that discussions are ongoing regarding the possibility of convening an Arab summit to address the Palestinian issue.

While no date has been set, Zaki stressed that the matter remains a priority for the league.

The reaffirmation of Arab solidarity comes amid escalating tensions and renewed international focus on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with regional powers emphasizing the need for a just and lasting resolution, Jordan News Agency reported.


How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden

How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden
Updated 09 February 2025
Follow

How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden

How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden
  • Host to refugees from Sudan, Syria, and elsewhere, Egypt faces new challenges as Trump proposes relocating Gazans
  • With inflation at 24.1 percent in December, experts warn more refugees would stretch Egypt’s economy and security

LONDON: Already host to almost 10 million migrants and refugees, Egypt now faces pressure to shelter hundreds of thousands of Gazans — a move Cairo deems unfair to the Palestinians and a potential threat to its economy and security.

US President Donald Trump has suggested that some 1.5 million people from the Palestinian enclave could be relocated to Egypt and Jordan — a plan that has met with opposition from both countries’ leaderships.

 

 

“Egypt views this proposal as an unacceptable liquidation of the Palestinian cause — something that neither Egyptians, Palestinians, nor other influential regional states would accept,” Hani Nasira, an Egyptian author and academic, told Arab News.

“It undermines the two-state solution and the peace agreements with Israel, which many regional countries have tied their engagement to.”

Beyond what this might mean for the Palestinians, Nasira also cited economic concerns for Egypt, especially if Gazans are not permitted to return. “Egypt hosts more than 9 million refugees and migrants who pose an economic burden and do not live in camps,” he said.

“Rather than treating displaced people as refugees or housing them in camps, Egypt has integrated them into society and considers them ‘guests,’ as President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has repeatedly stated.”

Sudanese brick makers work in an agricultural field in the capital Khartoum's district of Jureif Gharb on November 11, 2019. Egypt is home to more than 9 million foreign nationals who have fled conflict from their countries, and Egypt has integrated mnost of them into society and considers them ‘guests.’  (AFP)

Indeed, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, has praised Egypt for its policy of placing displaced foreign nationals in host communities, “reflecting the government’s commitment to the Global Compact on Refugees’ principle of finding alternatives to camps.”

Egypt is a signatory to key international treaties defining refugee rights and state obligations, including the 1951 Refugee Convention, its 1967 Protocol, and the 1969 Organization of African Unity Convention.

While official statistics show that Egypt hosts more than 9 million refugees and asylum-seekers, only 822,701 of them were registered with the UNHCR as of October. Access to many services typically requires being registered with the UNHCR or one of its partners.

REFUGEES & MIGRANTS IN EGYPT

• 4 million+ Sudanese

• 1.5 million+ Syrians

• 1million+ Yemenis

• 1 million+ Libyans

(Source: IOM)

According to UN figures, Egypt’s registered refugees originate from 59 nations, including Sudan, Syria, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Yemen, Somalia, and Iraq. As of October 2023, the Sudanese nationality was the largest group, followed by Syrians.

Sudan, which borders Egypt to the south, has been trapped in a state of conflict between rival military factions since April 2023, leading to one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes, displacing some 12 million people, both internally and externally.

In this photo taken on May 13, 2023, Sudanese fleeing war-torn Sudan are seen arriving at Qastal land port crossing between Egypt and Sudan. (AFP)

Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has devastated the capital Khartoum and other cities, shattering the nation’s health system and compounding outbreaks of once preventable diseases.

Domestic agriculture and supply chains have collapsed, leading to outbreaks of famine across the country. In Darfur and other areas, accounts of sexual violence and even genocide have emerged. Access issues and underfunding have hampered the humanitarian response.

Syria, meanwhile, has only recently emerged from more than a decade of civil war, which has displaced millions of refugees throughout the region and across the globe. Instability persists even after the toppling of the Bashar Assad regime, and swathes of the country remain in ruins.

This photo taken on January 4, 2018, shows Syrian refugees working at a restaurant in Egypt's second city of Alexandria. Egypt welcomed tens of thousands of people displaced since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011. (AFP/File)

South Sudan and nations on the Horn of Africa have experienced some of the most extreme and least reported conflicts of recent years, including the Tigray war in Ethiopia, not to mention climate disasters including devastating floods and crippling drought.

Recent and ongoing conflicts in Libya, Yemen, and Iraq have likewise sent millions in search of safety and a route out of poverty in Egypt — already the Arab world’s most populous country — which has itself experienced instability and hardship.

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said last year that Egypt hosted 40 percent of those fleeing Sudan, 1.5 million Syrian refugees since 2012, and expected to receive more Palestinians displaced from Gaza.

Since Israel mounted its military campaign in the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, in retaliation for the deadly Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, nearly all of the enclave’s 2.2 million residents have been displaced from their homes at least once.

People fleeing from the Gaza Strip wait in the Egyptian part of the Rafah border crossing with the Palestinian enclave, on December 3, 2023, amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas. (AFP)

As many as 100,000 Gazans managed to cross into Egypt before Israel captured the Rafah border crossing in May, according to Palestine’s Ambassador in Cairo Diab Al-Louh. Many lacked the documents needed to enroll children in school, open businesses, travel, or access health services.

Trump first floated the idea of relocating Gazans en masse on Jan. 25 and reiterated it the next day aboard Air Force One, saying he wanted the Palestinian enclave “just cleaned out” to start afresh after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced in mid-January.

On Feb. 4, he went even further, announcing plans for a US “takeover” of the Gaza Strip during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington D.C.

Demonstrators gather outside the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip on January 31, 2025 to protest against a plan floated by US President Donald Trump to move Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan. (AFP)

Trump said he wanted the US to take a “long-term ownership position” and turn the Eastern Mediterranean territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” Palestinians could be resettled away from Gaza, “in areas where the leaders currently say no,” he said.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty had already expressed concerns about the strain Egypt’s refugee burden is placing on the national budget and host communities, citing insufficient international support amid the growing number of displaced people.

During a Jan. 27 meeting with heads of three UN agencies in Geneva, Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s call for a fairer and more sustainable distribution of responsibility, urging the UN International Organization for Migration to help manage migrant flows and strengthen Egypt’s capacity to host those it already had.

On Jan. 28, Abdelatty told the Universal Periodic Review of Human Rights in Geneva that his country has shouldered a significant responsibility on behalf of the international community by hosting 10.7 million foreign nationals, including refugees and irregular migrants.

However, he said Egypt’s “capacity to accommodate and continue our efforts is at risk, especially given the insufficient international support relative to the pressures we are facing.”

Delegates pose for a group picture during a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo on December 2, 2024, amid the continuing war between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)

In April last year, Egypt’s Prime Minister Madbouly said hosting some 9 million refugees was costing his country approximately $10 billion per year, at a time when Egypt is grappling with its own economic crisis, despite receiving financial assistance from the EU, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and others to help stave off collapse.

Egypt’s revenues from the Suez Canal dropped by more than 60 percent in 2024, amounting to a $7 billion loss compared to the previous year, President El-Sisi said in a December statement. The loss was primarily driven by regional tensions, including attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen.

Egypt’s economy is also struggling with a high inflation rate, which stood at 24.1 percent in December, according to Trading Economics.

A young boy delivers freshly-baked bread in the al-Darb al-Ahmar district in the old quarters of Cairo on May 28, 2024. 

Economic repercussions are not the sole concern surrounding plans to relocate Gazans to Egypt. Officials believe the move may also threaten the security of the country and the wider region.

El-Sisi told a press conference on Jan. 29 that the transfer of Palestinians “can never be tolerated or allowed because of its impact on Egyptian national security.”

Egyptian academic Nasira said that implementing Trump’s proposal “could shift the conflict onto Egyptian soil and across the Middle East.”

Tanks stand on guard along the Egyptian side near the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip on January 19, 2025. Egyptians fear that Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans to Egypt “could shift the conflict onto Egyptian soil and across the Middle East.” (AFP)

Two days before El-Sisi’s statement, Parliament Speaker Hanafy El-Gebaly warned that relocating Gaza’s residents “may impede efforts to maintain the current truce and reach a permanent ceasefire” and risk “transferring the conflict to other territories, with disastrous repercussions for the entire region.”

Nasira said Cairo considers the relocation a threat to its national security, “as it could destabilize the Suez Canal the Sinai Peninsula, which was contested in multiple wars, the most recent in October 1973,” and “fuel further extremism in Egypt and the broader region.”

Echoing Cairo’s concerns, several influential Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, also warned that such plans “threaten the region’s stability, risk expanding the conflict, and undermine prospects for peace and coexistence among its peoples.”

Cairo fears that relocating Palestinians from Gaza — along with Hamas and other militant groups — could unravel the Camp David Accords, brokered in 1978 by US President Jimmy Carter between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (R) is seen with his supporters in Beirut during the early days of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. (AFP)

Palestinian militant groups could ignite future wars on Egyptian territory — much like in 1970s Lebanon, when Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization turned the southern part of the country into a launchpad for attacks on Israel.

Shortly after the Gaza war began, El-Sisi warned a mass exodus of Palestinians into Egypt’s Sinai could wreck the 1978 peace deal, turning the region into “a base for attacks on Israel,” prompting Israel to “strike Egyptian territory.”

He said: “The peace which we have achieved would vanish from our hands. All for the sake of the idea of eliminating the Palestinian cause.”