Global cooperation ‘flatlined’ amid rising conflicts: WEF report

Global cooperation ‘flatlined’ amid rising conflicts: WEF report
Borge Brende, president and CEO of the WEF, and Bob Sternfels, global managing partner at McKinsey & Co. urge international cooperation in the face of a complex world. (Screenshot: WEF)
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Updated 23 January 2025
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Global cooperation ‘flatlined’ amid rising conflicts: WEF report

Global cooperation ‘flatlined’ amid rising conflicts: WEF report
  • Multilateral bodies failing to resolve wars, says WEF’s Borge Brende
  • Deaths at highest in 30 years, record 122m people displaced in 2024

DUBAI: Geopolitical tensions and rising conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan have caused global cooperation to stall after a period of growth, according to a report from the World Economic Forum.

The second edition of the Global Cooperation Barometer was launched on Tuesday, ahead of the WEF’s annual meeting in Davos from Jan. 20 to 24.

The report, developed in collaboration with McKinsey & Co., found that cooperation was increasing positively over a decade, surpassing pre-COVID-19 levels but stagnated over the past three years due to geopolitical instability.

However, collaboration has continued in various other areas including vaccine distribution, scientific research and renewable energy development, the report stated.

“The concern with a stalled level of cooperation is that as the world enters the second half of the decade, with critical global deadlines ahead, progress is not where it needs to be,” said Borge Brende, president and CEO of the WEF, during the report’s online launch event.

This rise in global security issues and record levels of humanitarian crises were due to the inability of multilateral institutions to prevent and resolve conflicts in recent years, the report found.

According to UN figures, the number of conflict-related deaths has risen to the highest levels in 30 years, with a record number of 122 million people displaced as of 2024, double the number from a decade ago.

Brende urged the international community to unify and address the mounting geopolitical tensions and competition as leaders approach a highly “complex and uncertain” world.

“The Barometer is being released at a moment of great global instability and at a time when many new governments are developing agendas for the year, and their terms, ahead,” Brende said.

“What the Barometer shows is that cooperation is not only essential to address crucial economic, environmental and technological challenges, it is possible within today’s more turbulent context.”

The Barometer uses 41 indicators to measure global cooperation between 2012 and 2023 across five pillars: trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security.

Positive momentum in climate finance, trade and innovation offered hope, the report stated.

“Advancing global innovation, health, prosperity and resilience cannot be done alone,” said Bob Sternfels, global managing partner at McKinsey & Co.

“Leaders will need new mechanisms for working together on key priorities, even as they disagree on others, and the past several years have shown this balance is possible.”

He urged world leaders to embrace “disordered” cooperation, as well as develop adaptive and solutions-driven decision-making to navigate a turbulent global landscape.

“By pivoting towards cooperative solutions, leaders can rebuild trust, drive meaningful change and unlock new opportunities for shared progress and resilience in the complex years ahead,” he said.

According to the UN, just 17 percent of the Sustainable Development Goals are on track to meet the 2030 deadline.

The advancement of cooperation in innovation in 2023 drove the adoption of new technologies that benefited multiple areas of life. However, the WEF warned that emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence was reshaping the global landscape, raising the possibility of an “AI arms race.”

“Cooperative leadership and inclusive strategies will be key to harness its vast potential while tackling risks,” according to experts quoted in the report.

The report found that cooperation on climate goals improved over the past year, with increased finance flows and higher trade in low-carbon technologies such as solar, wind and electric vehicles. Yet, urgent action was still required to meet net-zero targets as global emissions continue to rise.

According to UN figures, global temperatures have risen to record levels, with 2024 being the hottest year on record.

Health outcomes, including life expectancy, continued to improve post-pandemic, but overall progress was slowing compared to pre-2020. Brende warned that forging collaboration in a highly fragmented world was crucial to address cross-border challenges.

Seven million people died from COVID-19, while the US has reported the first human death linked to bird flu on Tuesday. Cybercrime cost the world $2 trillion in 2023, he added.

“With pandemics, there is no other way than using the tools we have for early warnings. We have to come together and put all resources to move much faster than we did.

“COVID-19 was the worst pandemic we had seen in 100 years, but I don’t think it will take 100 years before we see the next pandemic,” warned Brende.

The report revealed that although cross-border assistance and pharmaceutical research and development have declined, and cooperation on trade in health goods and international regulations stalled, various health metrics including child and maternal mortality remained strong.

Goods trade declined by 5 percent, driven largely by slower growth in China and other developing economies, while global fragmentation continued to reduce trade between Western and Eastern-aligned blocs. However, Brende said a 3 percent increase in global trade is expected this year.

Despite this, the report found global flows of services, capital and people showed resilience. Foreign direct investment surged, particularly in strategic sectors including semiconductors and green energy, while labor migration and remittances rebounded strongly, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

“There should be enough common interest to collaborate even in a competitive world. So I hope that this Barometer will then be a useful tool for leaders around the world to know where we stand today, as well as the risks and opportunities we face,” he said.

The WEF’s annual meeting will convene global leaders under the theme “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age.” The meeting aims to foster new partnerships and insights in an era of rapidly advancing technology.


International debt is creating instability, global investor says

International debt is creating instability, global investor says
Updated 13 February 2025
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International debt is creating instability, global investor says

International debt is creating instability, global investor says

DUBAI: The debt problem is not one that only the US is facing — it is a world debt problem that China, Europe and many countries are confronting, according to Ray Dalio, founder of Bridgewater Associates.

During a session conducted by TV host, Tucker Carlson, at the World Governments Summit on Wednesday, Dalio said: “If you have that debt problem, you exacerbate the great conflict that’s going to happen. You create political instability. It’s a geopolitical problem.

“Climate is costly, roughly $8 trillion a year on climate, so it’s a financial thing, and now the question is this new technology and how are we going to handle that and how do we make the most to raise productivity or what is it used for. Is it used for conflict?” 

Carlson said: “You have run one of the biggest hedge funds in the world for a long time, and in order to do that you have had to think about the rest of the world in a systematic way … in doing that, you have developed this framework for understanding what’s happening now and what’s going to happen.”

Carlson then asked Dalio to discuss the five trends that he had looked at to consider what was going to happen next.

As a global macro investor for 50 years, the Bridgewater Associates’ founder said that he discovered that he needed to study history. By doing so, he observed five major forces that operate in a big cycle.

The first is that “we have a big debt issue globally, that is very important… that is a force, a financial force.” 

The second, he said, is the internal order and disorder force that goes in a cycle in which there “is greater and greater gaps and conflicts between the left and the right and populism that forces a great conflict like a civil war.

“I believe we are in a form of a civil war now, that’s going on within countries,” he said.

The third force is the great world power conflict that occurs “when a great power runs the world order and then there is a rising power that challenges that, you have a great power conflict: US-China.”

The fourth force is that throughout history, acts of nature — “droughts, floods and pandemics — have killed more people than wars and have toppled world orders more than anything else.”

The fifth big force is “man’s inventiveness, particularly of technology.”

Dalio said: “Everything that we talk about, everything that we are looking at, falls under one of those and they move in a largely cyclical way and that is the framework that we are now living out.”

Giving his sense of the scale of global debt, Dalio said that “it’s now unprecedented in all of history” and went on to explain how it worked, saying “there is a supply-demand situation.

“The way the debt cycle works is, think of credit, and our credit system as being like a circulatory system, that credit brings buying power, brings nutrients to all the system … but that credit that we buy things with, that we buy financial assets, goods and services with, creates debt.

“That debt accumulates like plaque in a system that begins to have a problem because it starts to squeeze out spending, for example the US budget, about a trillion dollars a year now goes to pay interest rates. Over the next year we are going to have over $9 trillion debt that we have to pay back and roll forward hopefully.”

So there is a supply demand issue with this debt, “one man’s debts are another man’s assets.” Dalio added: “if those assets don’t provide an adequate return, or they feel there is risk in those assets, there is not enough demand for that debt, there is a problem … that problem is that interest rates then start to rise, and those holders of the debt begin to realize there is a debt problem, and worse, on the supply and demand, that they have to sell debt.”

Dalio said that the US would run a deficit of about 7.5 percent of GDP “if the Trump tax cuts are continued,” which he expected.

“That deficit needs to be cut to 3 percent of GDP… all policymakers and the president should have a pledge to get it to 3 percent of GDP, because otherwise we are likely to have a problem,” he said.


Govts must build ‘proper guardrails’ against AI threats, report warns

Govts must build ‘proper guardrails’ against AI threats, report warns
Updated 13 February 2025
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Govts must build ‘proper guardrails’ against AI threats, report warns

Govts must build ‘proper guardrails’ against AI threats, report warns

DUBAI: Artificial intelligence can redefine societies but needs “proper guardrails” to be used for the common good, the head of a top management firm’s AI division has said.

Jad Haddad, partner and global head of Quotient, AI by Oliver Wyman, was speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai on Thursday.

His firm and the summit co-launched a report, “AI: A Roadmap for Governments,” highlighting the urgent need for governments to develop strategies for the responsible deployment of AI.

“This report highlights the urgent need for governments to act decisively in creating frameworks that not only foster innovation, but also address the ethical and societal risks associated with AI, ensuring it serves the common good,” Haddad said.

Amid rapid evolution in AI, the report underscores both the transformative potential and significant risks the technology poses to society.

With more than one-third of the world’s countries already publishing national AI strategies, the report highlights AI as a strategic technology poised to redefine industries, governance and global competitiveness.

WGS’ managing director, Mohamed Al-Sharhan, said: “The future of AI demands a unified global response.”

The report is a crucial blueprint for policymakers that guides them through the complexities of the technology, Al-Sharhan said.

It also highlights the importance of aligning academic institutions, launching talent programs and establishing public-private collaborations to effectively navigate the complexities of AI adoption worldwide.

The report calls for building robust regulatory frameworks to protect citizens and ensure equitable access to AI technologies.

“Without proper guardrails, AI could become the biggest threat to privacy and democracy that we have ever faced,” Haddad said.


Western allies and Arab countries gather in Paris to discuss Syria’s future amid US aid freeze

Western allies and Arab countries gather in Paris to discuss Syria’s future amid US aid freeze
Updated 13 February 2025
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Western allies and Arab countries gather in Paris to discuss Syria’s future amid US aid freeze

Western allies and Arab countries gather in Paris to discuss Syria’s future amid US aid freeze
  • Trump’s controversial decision to freeze foreign assistance has raised concerns in Syria, a country that had depended on hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the US and now left in ruins by a civil war

PARIS: Western allies and Arab countries are gathering in Paris on Thursday for an international conference on Syria to discuss the country’s future after the fall of former Syrian president Bashar Assad and amid uncertainty over the United States’ commitment to the region.
It’s the third conference on Syria since Assad was ousted in December, and the first since President Donald Trump’s administration took over in the US.
Trump’s controversial decision to freeze foreign assistance has raised concerns in Syria, a country that had depended on hundreds of millions of dollars in aid from the US and now left in ruins by a civil war.
The Trump administration is pulling almost all USAID workers out of the field worldwide, all but ending a six-decade mission meant to shore up American security by fighting starvation, funding education and working to end epidemics.
While many Syrians were happy to see the rule of Assad come to an abrupt end in December, analysts have warned that the honeymoon period for the country’s new rulers may be short-lived if they are not able to jumpstart the country’s battered economy.
An end to the sanctions imposed during Assad’s time will be key to that, but sanctions are not the only issue.
Billions in aid needed
More aid is crucial to achieve a peaceful reconstruction during the post-Assad transition. The country needs massive investment to rebuild housing, electricity, water and transportation infrastructure after nearly 14 years of war. The United Nations in 2017 estimated that it would cost at least $250 billion, while some experts now say the number could reach at least $400 billion.
With few productive sectors and government employees making wages equivalent to about $20 per month, Syria has grown increasingly dependent on remittances and humanitarian aid. But the flow of aid was throttled after the Trump administration halted US foreign assistance last month.
The effects were particularly dire in the country’s northwest, a formerly rebel-held enclave that hosts millions of people displaced from other areas by the country’s civil war. Many of them live in sprawling tent camps.
The freeze on USAID funding forced clinics serving many of those camps to shut down, and nonprofits laid off local staff. In northeastern Syria, a camp housing thousands of family members of Islamic State fighters was thrown into chaos when the group providing services there was forced to briefly stop work.
A workshop bringing together key donors from the Group of Seven leading industrialized nations, the United Nations and key agencies from Arab countries will be held alongside the conference to coordinate international aid to Syria.
Doubts over US support
Uncertainty also surrounds the future of US military support in the region.
In 2019 during his first term, Trump decided on a partial withdrawal of US troops form the northeast of Syria before he halted the plans. And in December last year, when rebels were on their way to topple Assad, Trump said the United States should not ” dive into the middle of a Syrian civil war.”
Now that Syria’s new leader Ahmad Al-Sharaa is trying to consolidate his power, the USintentions in the region remain unclear.
A French diplomatic official confirmed the presence of a US representative at the conference, but said “our understanding is that the new US administration is still in the review process regarding Syria, it does not seem (the US position) will be clarified at that conference.” The official spoke anonymously in line with the French presidency’s customary practices.
The commander of the main US-backed force in Syria recently said that US troops should stay in Syria because the Daesh group will benefit from a withdrawal.
Since Damascus fell on Dec. 8 and Assad fled to Moscow, the new leadership has yet to lay out a clear vision of how the country will be governed.
The Islamic militant group Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham, or HTS – a former Al-Qaeda affiliate that the EU and UN consider to be a terrorist organization – has established itself as Syria’s de facto rulers after coordinating with the southern fighters during the offensive late last year.
French organizers said the three main goals of the meeting, which is not a pledging conference, are to coordinate efforts to support a peaceful transition, organize cooperation and aid from neighbors and partners, and to continue talks on the fight against impunity.
The conference takes place at ministerial level. Syria’s interim foreign minister Asaad Al-Shibani has been invited and it will be his first visit to Europe.
Speaking this week at the World Governments Summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, Al-Shibani underlined the new government in Damascus’ desire to improve relations with the West and get sanctions on Syria lifted so the country could start rebuilding after the ruinous, 14-year war.


Turkish president holds talks with Pakistani premier to discuss Gaza and bilateral issues

Turkish president holds talks with Pakistani premier to discuss Gaza and bilateral issues
Updated 13 February 2025
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Turkish president holds talks with Pakistani premier to discuss Gaza and bilateral issues

Turkish president holds talks with Pakistani premier to discuss Gaza and bilateral issues

ISLAMABAD: Turkiye’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan met with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif on Thursday at his office in Islamabad to discuss the situation in Gaza and a range of bilateral issues.
They will sign several agreements for boosting trade and economic ties between the nations, officials said.
Erdogan left his hotel amid tight security, and was welcomed by people in traditional Turkish and Pakistani dresses who lined a key city road that had been decorated with Turkish and Pakistani flags. The crowds danced to the beat of drums as the Turkish leader’s convoy passed through the streets.
Erdogan and his wife, Emine Erdogan, were welcomed by Sharif on their arrival at his office. A band played the national anthems of both countries before a ceremony that saw the leaders inspecting a guard of honor.
Erdogan will jointly chair bilateral strategic cooperation talks and the two sides are expected to sign a number of agreements, according to a government announcement.


Hamas to release hostages as planned, apparently resolving ceasefire dispute

Hamas to release hostages as planned, apparently resolving ceasefire dispute
Updated 13 February 2025
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Hamas to release hostages as planned, apparently resolving ceasefire dispute

Hamas to release hostages as planned, apparently resolving ceasefire dispute
  • Hamas suspends handover of Israeli hostages over what it said were Israeli violations of the terms
  • Israel has called up military reservists to brace for a possible re-eruption of war in Gaza

CAIRO: Hamas said Thursday it would release Israeli hostages as planned, apparently resolving a major dispute that threatened the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip.

The militant group said Egyptian and Qatari mediators have affirmed that they will work to “remove all hurdles,” and that it would implement the ceasefire deal.

The statement indicated three more Israeli hostages would be freed Saturday. There was no immediate comment from Israel after Hamas’ announcement.

That would allow the ceasefire in the Gaza Strip to continue for now, but its future remains in doubt.

Hamas had threatened to delay the next release of Israeli hostages, accusing Israel of failing to meet its obligations to allow in tents and shelters, among other alleged violations of the truce.

Israel, with the support of US President Donald Trump, had threatened to renew its offensive if hostages were not freed.

“We are not interested in the collapse of the ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, and we are keen on its implementation and ensuring that the occupation (Israel) adheres to it fully,” Hamas spokesperson Abdel-Latif Al-Qanoua said.

“The language of threats and intimidation used by Trump and Netanyahu does not serve the implementation of the ceasefire agreement,” Qanoua said.

A Hamas delegation led by the group’s Gaza chief, Khalil Al-Hayya, met Egyptian security officials on Wednesday to try to break the impasse.

A Palestinian official close to the talks told Reuters that mediators Egypt and Qatar were trying to find solutions to prevent a slide back into fighting.

In a statement, Hamas said the mediators were exerting pressure for the ceasefire deal to be fully implemented, ensure Israel abides by a humanitarian protocol and resume exchanges of Israeli hostages held in Gaza for Palestinian prisoners and detainees held by Israel on Saturday.

Israel has called up military reservists to brace for a possible re-eruption of war in Gaza if Hamas fails to meet a Saturday deadline to free further Israeli hostages.