Is US pressure on Iraq over reliance on Iranian electricity a blessing in disguise?

Special Is US pressure on Iraq over reliance on Iranian electricity a blessing in disguise?
Power outages are commonplace in Iraq, which had become highly dependent on Iranian gas and electricity supply. (AFP)
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Updated 27 March 2025
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Is US pressure on Iraq over reliance on Iranian electricity a blessing in disguise?

Is US pressure on Iraq over reliance on Iranian electricity a blessing in disguise?
  • The US has ended a key sanctions waiver, increasing pressure on Iraq to reduce its reliance on Iranian gas and electricity
  • Baghdad is trying to integrate with the GCC power grid to enhance energy security, much to the chagrin of Iran-backed factions

DUBAI/LONDON: Iraq has long had to balance its relationships between competing regional powers, particularly Iran and the Gulf states. Now, with renewed US harrying of Iraq to stop buying gas and electricity from Iran, Baghdad could be drawn further into the Arab orbit.

On March 8, the US State Department said it was not renewing a sanctions waiver that had allowed Iraq to import Iranian electricity. The waiver, initially introduced in 2018 after the US withdrew from the Iran nuclear deal, has been a lifeline for Iraq’s struggling power grid.

Despite its vast oil and gas wealth, years of conflict, corruption, and underinvestment have left Iraq highly dependent on Iranian gas and direct electricity imports to meet its energy needs. Power outages are commonplace, especially in the scorching summer months.




Iraqi laborers work at an oil refinery in the southern town Nassiriya. (AFP/File)

The US decision came as part of President Donald Trump’s “maximum pressure” campaign on Iran, which is “designed to end Iran’s nuclear threat, curtail its ballistic missile program and stop it from supporting terrorist groups,” according to a statement from the US Embassy in Baghdad.

“We urge the Iraqi government to eliminate its dependence on Iranian sources of energy as soon as possible, and welcome the Iraqi prime minister’s commitment to achieve energy independence,” the statement added.

In a call with Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani on March 9, US National Security Adviser Mike Waltz encouraged Baghdad to welcome more Western and US energy companies into Iraq’s oil and gas sectors.

According to a readout from that call, Waltz also urged the Iraqi government to work with the semi-autonomous Kurdistan Regional Government of northern Iraq to address remaining contract disputes over energy and to pay arrears owed to US energy companies.




US National Security Adbviser Michael Waltz. (AFP)

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took to social media on March 10 to criticize the US move, saying it targeted the people of Iraq by attempting to deprive them of access to basic services such as electricity, particularly ahead of the approaching summer months.

With the waiver rescinded, it remains unclear whether Iraq will be permitted to continue importing gas from Iran to feed its power plants. Indeed, some 43 percent of the country’s electricity is generated from Iranian gas.

On March 12, Farhad Alaaeldin, the Iraqi prime minister’s foreign affairs adviser, told a local TV channel that the waiver guaranteed by the US on the import of gas was still in effect — and that only the exemption on imported power has been canceled.

Alaaeldin said the US was, for now at least, merely encouraging Iraq to secure gas from other sources. “The American administration says … diversify your import sources. Go to other countries,” he said.

The US Embassy statement asserted that electricity imports from Iran represent only 4 percent of electricity consumption in Iraq.

But a spokesperson for Iraq’s Ministry of Electricity, Ahmad Moussa, told the Associated Press that should gas imports also be forbidden, it “would cause Iraq to lose more than 30 percent of its electricity energy.”




On March 6, 2025, Iraq's Ministry of Electricity launched Shams Basra, the country's largest solar energy project, in cooperation with Total Energies. (Iraqi News Agency photo)

Although this renewed pressure on Baghdad has officials scrambling to find alternatives, it arguably presents an opportunity for Iraq to pivot toward the Gulf states, integrate into the Arab fold, and thereby reduce its reliance on Tehran.

The question now is whether the Iraqi government will seize the moment to achieve energy independence or remain tethered to Iran’s energy infrastructure.

Achieving true energy independence will not be easy.

In 2022, Iran exported 3.5 terawatt hours of electricity to Iraq through four transmission lines. Iraq also imports up to 50 million cubic meters of gas per day from Iran. The neighbors signed a five-year extension to their gas export agreement in March 2024.

Talks on Iranian gas exports to Iraq began in the second half of 2010, shortly after the US military withdrawal following the 2003 invasion, leading to the signing of a supply agreement for Baghdad in July 2013. A contract for gas exports to Basra was signed in November 2015.

Iraq spends about $4 billion annually on Iranian energy, but US sanctions have delayed the country’s ability to make timely payments, leading to substantial debt accumulation, estimated at $11 billion.

To settle this debt, Iraq proposed an oil-for-gas deal in 2023, allowing it to repay Iran with crude. However it chooses to make these repayments, this significant debt burden poses a further challenge to severing links.

According to Iraq’s Parliamentary Oil, Gas and Natural Resources Committee, securing alternative sources of energy has proven difficult, with past diversification efforts delayed by bureaucracy and political resistance from Iran-backed factions in Baghdad.

Despite the challenges, Iraq has begun taking concrete steps toward integrating with the Gulf Cooperation Council’s energy network. An Oct. 9, 2024, agreement to connect Iraq to the GCC Interconnection Authority marked a significant milestone.




Iraq’s inclusion in the GCC Interconnection Authority would not only reduce its reliance on Iran but enhance regional energy cooperation. (Supplied)

The GCCIA was originally established to link the power grids of Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Iraq’s inclusion in this grid would not only reduce its reliance on Iranian gas but also enhance regional energy cooperation.

Under the agreement, Iraq will receive 500 megawatts of electricity through transmission lines from Kuwait’s Al-Wafra station to Al-Faw in Basra. A separate deal with Saudi Arabia is expected to add another 1,000 megawatts to Iraq’s power supply.

Given its own significant domestic energy challenges, including infrastructure problems and environmental factors such as droughts that have reduced its hydroelectric output, there is even a case to be made for Iran benefitting from integration into the broader GCCIA grid.

Elsewhere, Iraq has partnered with Saudi Arabia’s ACWA Power, the UAE’s Masdar, and France’s TotalEnergies to develop solar power plants, although these projects are still years away from completion.




Iraq's solar power projects are still years away from completion. ((Shutterstock/file)

Beyond the Gulf grid, Iraq is pursuing additional measures to reduce its dependence on Iranian energy, including an agreement with Turkmenistan in October 2023 to import 20 million cubic meters of gas per day.

Meanwhile, a 115-km transmission line with Turkiye now supplies 300 megawatts of electricity to northern Iraq. Iraq is also building a liquefied natural gas terminal in Al-Faw with a storage capacity of 300,000 cubic meters.

Despite these efforts, Iraq’s transition away from Iranian energy still faces major hurdles.

“The current production of domestic gas cannot replace Iranian imports at this stage, as achieving self-sufficiency requires several years of development and investment,” Iraqi economic analyst Nabil Al-Marsoumi said in a recent social media post.

Even as Iraq moves toward energy diversification, Iran is unlikely to relinquish its grip without resistance.

Tehran exerts significant political influence in Baghdad through Iran-backed militias and Shiite political factions. These groups view stronger GCC ties as a threat to their dominance and have historically opposed efforts to reduce Iraqi dependence on Iranian energy.




Iraq's Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ Al-Sudani. (AFP)

Prime Minister Al-Sudani initially sought a waiver extension until 2028, arguing that Iraq needed more time to secure alternative energy sources. However, under US pressure, he ultimately relented and announced Iraq’s compliance with sanctions.

His decision sparked criticism from pro-Iranian factions within Iraq, further illustrating the political tightrope he must walk.

Ordinary Iraqis, meanwhile, remain skeptical. Many citizens believe their leaders are beholden to Iran’s interests rather than prioritizing national energy security.

“As long as those in power remain loyal to Iran, they will do whatever it takes to keep us reliant on it,” Modhar, a Baghdad-based driver, told Arab News.

For Gulf states, deepening energy ties with Iraq presents both opportunities and risks. A more integrated Iraq could serve as a bridge between the Arab world and Iran, facilitating broader regional cooperation.

Additionally, stronger economic ties with Baghdad could help Gulf economies diversify their own economies beyond oil exports.

However, Gulf countries must also navigate Iraq’s internal political landscape carefully. Any overt effort to pull Iraq away from Iran risks provoking retaliation from Iran-backed militias, which have launched attacks on US and Gulf interests in the past.




Iraq's new LNG terminal at Al-Faw. (Getty Images)

That said, energy interdependence has the potential to be a stabilizing factor. As regional energy demand grows, a Gulf-wide electricity grid that includes Iraq could provide a reliable supply and reduce dependence on volatile suppliers like Iran.

With the GCC currently producing 272 gigawatts of electricity, a fully integrated power grid could transform Iraq’s economy and cement its position within the Arab fold. How Iraq responds in the coming months will define its future for years to come.

The suspension of the US sanctions waiver has forced Baghdad to confront its reliance on Iranian energy. While the road to energy independence is fraught with challenges, Iraq’s deepening ties with the GCC present a viable alternative.

Whether Iraq can successfully integrate into the GCC’s energy network while balancing its relationship with Iran remains to be seen. However, if Baghdad seizes this historic opportunity, it could finally achieve the energy security and regional influence it has long sought.

As Al-Marsoumi warned: “Key energy projects remain years away from completion.” But the long-term potential of Iraq’s pivot to the GCC is undeniable.

The coming months will determine whether Iraq charts a new course toward the Arab world — or remains in Iran’s shadow.


 


Jerusalem patriarch hails pope’s commitment to Gaza

Jerusalem patriarch hails pope’s commitment to Gaza
Updated 4 sec ago
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Jerusalem patriarch hails pope’s commitment to Gaza

Jerusalem patriarch hails pope’s commitment to Gaza
JERUSALEM: The Latin patriarch of Jerusalem, Archbishop Pierbattista Pizzaballa, on Tuesday hailed Pope Francis’s support for Gazans and engagement with the small Catholic community in the war-battered Palestinian territory.
The Catholic church’s highest authority in the region, who is considered a potential successor to the late pontiff, Pizzaballa told journalists in Jerusalem that “Gaza represents, a little bit, all what was the heart of his pontificate.”
Pope Francis, who died on Monday aged 88, advocated peace and “closeness to the poor... and to the neglected one,” said the patriarch.
These positions became particularly evident in Francis’s response to the Israel-Hamas war which broke out in October 2023, Pizzaballa said.
“He was very close to the community of Gaza, the parish of Gaza, he kept calling them many times — for a certain period, also every day, every evening at 7 pm,” said the patriarch.
He added that by doing so, the pope “became for the community something stable, and also comforting for them, and he knew this.”
Out of the Gaza Strip’s 2.4 million people, about 1,000 are Christians. Most of them are Orthodox, but according to the Latin Patriarchate, there are about 135 Catholics in the territory.
Since the early days of the war, members of the Catholic community have been sheltering at Holy Family Church compound in Gaza City, and some Orthodox Christians have also found refuge there.
Pope Francis repeatedly called for an end to the war. The day before his death, in a final Easter message delivered on Sunday, he condemned the “deplorable humanitarian situation” in the besieged territory.
“Work for justice... but without becoming part of the conflict,” said Pizzaballa of the late pontiff’s actions.
“For us, for the Church, it leaves an important legacy.”
The patriarch thanked the numerous Palestinian and Israeli public figures who have offered their condolences, preferring not to comment on the lack of any official message from Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
Even as “the local authorities... were not always happy” with the pope’s positions or statements, they were “always very respectful,” he said.
Pizzaballa said he will travel to Rome on Wednesday, after leading a requiem mass for the pope at the Church of the Holy Sepulchre in Jerusalem in the morning.
As one of the 135 cardinal electors, the Latin patriarch will participate in the conclave to elect a new pope.
Pizzaballa, a 60-year-old Italian Franciscan who also speaks English and Hebrew, arrived in Jerusalem in 1990 and was made a cardinal in September 2023, just before the Gaza war began.
His visits to Gaza and appeals for peace since then have attracted international attention.

UAE FM meets Sri Lankan president in Colombo visit

UAE FM meets Sri Lankan president in Colombo visit
Updated 17 min 13 sec ago
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UAE FM meets Sri Lankan president in Colombo visit

UAE FM meets Sri Lankan president in Colombo visit
  • Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan highlighted the UAE’s commitment to enhancing cooperation with Sri Lanka
  • He attended the signing of a deal to establish the UAE-Sri Lanka Joint Business Council

LONDON: Sheikh Abdullah bin Zayed Al-Nahyan, the UAE minister of foreign affairs, met Sri Lanka’s president and foreign minister in Colombo during an official visit on Tuesday.

Sheikh Abdullah and President Anura Kumara Dissanayake discussed ways to enhance bilateral cooperation in various sectors, building on strong and evolving ties between the UAE and Sri Lanka.

He highlighted the UAE’s commitment to enhancing cooperation with Sri Lanka to support the development goals of both countries, the Emirates News Agency reported.

The UAE is committed to partnering with friendly countries to enhance prosperity and sustainable development, he added. President Dissanayake commended the strong relationship between Abu Dhabi and Colombo, WAM reported.

Sheikh Abdullah spoke with his Sri Lankan counterpart, Vijitha Herath, about opportunities for enhancing cooperation in areas such as the economy, trade, tourism and development.

The ministers exchanged views on several regional and international issues, and attended the signing of a memorandum of understanding between the Federation of UAE Chambers of Commerce and Industry and the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka.

The memorandum, signed on Tuesday by Saeed Mubarak Al-Hajeri, the Emirati assistant minister for economic and trade affairs, and Lakmal Fernando, vice president of the National Chamber of Commerce of Sri Lanka, aims to establish the UAE-Sri Lanka Joint Business Council.

Khaled Nasser Al-Ameri, the UAE’s ambassador to Sri Lanka, attended the meetings along with senior Emirati officials.


South Sudan opposition says under fresh govt military attack

South Sudan opposition says under fresh govt military attack
Updated 22 April 2025
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South Sudan opposition says under fresh govt military attack

South Sudan opposition says under fresh govt military attack
  • “The South Sudan People’s Defense Forces has attacked Panyume cantonment site,” Gabriel said
  • “Clashes are still ongoing and details will follow later“

JUBA: South Sudan’s opposition accused government forces of attacking one of its military positions in Central Equatoria State on Tuesday as their fragile power-sharing agreement continues to unravel.
Central Equatoria State, which includes the capital Juba, was split into areas controlled by government and opposition forces under a 2018 power-sharing deal that ended South Sudan’s five-year civil war, in which an estimated 400,000 people died.
The agreement brought President Salva Kiir and his long-time rival, Vice President Riek Machar, together in a unity government.
But the deal has been unraveling in recent months as Kiir moves to sideline Machar, who was placed under house arrest last month.
“The SSPDF (South Sudan People’s Defense Forces) has attacked Panyume cantonment site from multiple directions this morning,” opposition party spokesman Lam Paul Gabriel said on Facebook.
“Clashes are still ongoing and details will follow later,” he added.
Facing sustained attacks on its positions, the opposition forces commander directed his troops to prepare for conflict, according to another statement by Gabriel on Tuesday.
“Lt. Gen. Peter Thok Chuol hereby directs all sectors, divisions and all units of the SPLA-IO (Sudan People’s Liberation Army in Opposition) to be vigilant and promptly defend themselves and the civilians under their control areas,” he said.


Israeli strikes kill 14 in Gaza and destroy heavy equipment needed to clear rubble

Israeli strikes kill 14 in Gaza and destroy heavy equipment needed to clear rubble
Updated 22 April 2025
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Israeli strikes kill 14 in Gaza and destroy heavy equipment needed to clear rubble

Israeli strikes kill 14 in Gaza and destroy heavy equipment needed to clear rubble
  • An Israeli strike on Jabaliya municipality's parking garage destroyed nine bulldozers provided by Egypt and Qatar
  • The strikes also destroyed a water tanker and a mobile generator provided by aid groups

DEIR AL-BALAH, Gaza Strip: Israeli strikes on the Gaza Strip killed at least 14 Palestinians, mostly women and children, and destroyed bulldozers and other heavy equipment that had been supplied by mediators to clear rubble.
Israel’s 18-month offensive against Hamas has destroyed vast areas of Gaza, raising fears that much of it may never be rebuilt. The territory already had a shortage of heavy equipment, which is also needed to rescue people from the rubble after Israeli strikes and to clear vital roads.
A municipality in the Jabaliya area of northern Gaza said a strike on its parking garage destroyed nine bulldozers provided by Egypt and Qatar, which helped broker the ceasefire that took hold in January. Israel ended the truce last month, renewing its bombardment and ground operations and sealing the territory’s 2 million Palestinians off from all imports, including food, fuel and medical supplies.
The strikes also destroyed a water tanker and a mobile generator provided by aid groups, and a truck used to pump sewage, the Jabaliya Al-Nazla municipality said.
There was no immediate comment from the Israeli military on the strikes.
Israeli strikes kill 14, mostly children
An Israeli airstrike early Tuesday destroyed a multistory home in the southern city of Khan Younis, killing nine people, including four women and four children, according to Nasser Hospital, which received the bodies. The dead included a 2-year-old girl and her parents.
“They were asleep, sleeping in God’s peace. They had nothing to do with anything,” said Awad Dahliz, the slain girl’s grandfather. “What is the fault of this innocent child?“
A separate strike in the built-up Jabaliya refugee camp killed three children and their parents, according to the Gaza Health Ministry’s emergency service.
Israel’s air and ground war has killed over 51,000 Palestinians, mostly women and children, according to the ministry.
The war began when Hamas-led militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing some 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and taking 251 people hostage. They are still holding 59 hostages, 24 of whom are believed to be alive, after most of the rest were released in ceasefire agreements or other deals.
Hamas has said it will only free the remaining hostages in return for the release of Palestinian prisoners, a full Israeli withdrawal and a lasting ceasefire. Israel has said it will keep fighting until the hostages are returned and Hamas has been either destroyed or disarmed and sent into exile. It has pledged to hold onto so-called security zones in Gaza indefinitely.


Syria detains two leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Syria detains two leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad
Updated 22 April 2025
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Syria detains two leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad

Syria detains two leaders of Palestinian Islamic Jihad
  • The group said the men had been detained “without any explanation of the reasons“
  • An official from Syria’s interior ministry confirmed the detentions

DAMASCUS: Syrian Arab Republic authorities have detained two senior members of the Palestinian militant faction Islamic Jihad, which took part in the October 2023 attacks on Israel from Gaza, the group’s armed wing and a Syrian official said on Tuesday.
In a statement, the Al Quds Brigades said Khaled Khaled, who heads Islamic Jihad’s operations in Syria, and Yasser Al-Zafari, who heads its organizational committee, had been in Syrian custody for five days.
The group said the men had been detained “without any explanation of the reasons” and “in a manner we would not have hoped to see from brothers,” and called for their release.
An official from Syria’s interior ministry confirmed the detentions, but did not respond to follow-up questions on why the pair had been arrested. A Palestinian source in Damascus also confirmed the arrests.
Islamic Jihad joined its ally Hamas, Gaza’s ruling group, in the attack on Israel in 2023. It is a recipient of Iranian funding and know-how, and has long had foreign headquarters in Syria and Lebanon.
But its allies in both countries have recently suffered devastating blows: an Israeli air and ground offensive last year severely weakened the Lebanese Iranian-backed group Hezbollah, and Syria’s leader Bashar Assad, closely allied to Tehran, was ousted by a rebel offensive last year.
The new Islamist leadership in Damascus has cut diplomatic ties with Iran and is hoping to rebuild Syria’s regional and international backing, not least to eliminate sanctions and fund reconstruction after a brutal 14-year civil war.
The US has given Syria a list of conditions to fulfill in exchange for partial sanctions relief, Reuters reported last month. Sources said one of the conditions was keeping Iran-backed Palestinian groups at a distance.
Israel has carried out strikes against Islamic Jihad in Syria for years. Last month, it said it struck a building on the outskirts of Damascus that it said Islamic Jihad was using as a command center, an assertion denied by the group.