The risks of Bangladesh’s Rakhine humanitarian corridor

Bangladesh’s agreement in principle last month to facilitate a UN-led humanitarian corridor into Myanmar’s Rakhine State is a bold step toward alleviating a dire crisis. The region, battered by conflict and a recent devastating earthquake, faces an imminent famine that threatens millions, including the persecuted Rohingya and other displaced ethnic groups. Dhaka’s willingness to support this initiative reflects its humanitarian legacy, yet it also places the country at a precarious crossroads.

Without robust security measures, international oversight and a UN-monitored mechanism to ensure aid reaches vulnerable populations, this corridor risks becoming a conduit for exploitation by Myanmar’s junta or emboldened rebel groups like the Arakan Army. Bangladesh must tread carefully to balance its moral obligations with the imperative to avoid fueling regional instability.

Rakhine State is a humanitarian catastrophe unfolding in slow motion. The Myanmar junta’s blockades, aimed at strangling the Arakan Army’s control over much of the region, have choked supply lines, decimated local agriculture and left millions on the brink of starvation. The UN warns that, without urgent intervention, Rakhine could face full-scale famine by mid-2025.

The recent earthquake, one of Myanmar’s worst in over a century, has compounded this misery, destroying infrastructure and displacing even more civilians. For the Rohingya, already reeling from decades of systemic persecution, these conditions are a death sentence. Bangladesh, hosting more than 1.3 million Rohingya refugees in Cox’s Bazar, knows the stakes all too well. Another mass exodus looms if Rakhine’s crisis is not addressed.

Bangladesh must tread carefully to balance its moral obligations with the imperative to avoid fueling regional instability

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The proposed humanitarian corridor, discussed during UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’ March visit to Dhaka, aims to channel UN-led aid through Bangladesh into Rakhine. The initiative could provide a lifeline to starving civilians, stabilize the region and create conditions for the eventual repatriation of Rohingya refugees — a long-standing goal for Dhaka. Foreign Adviser Md Touhid Hossain has emphasized that Bangladesh’s support is conditional on a “conducive environment” for aid distribution, signaling an awareness of the risks. But the complexities of Rakhine’s conflict-ridden landscape demand far more than good intentions.

The primary risk lies in aid diversion. Myanmar’s junta, notorious for weaponizing humanitarian aid, has a history of blocking or redirecting supplies to weaken rebel groups or enrich loyalists. In 2023, after Cyclone Mocha, the junta obstructed aid to Rakhine and Chin States, prioritizing political control over human lives. The Arakan Army, while presenting itself as a liberator, is also not above suspicion. Reports of human rights violations against Rohingya populations and significant anti-Rohingya sentiment among Rakhine communities raise doubts about the group’s willingness to equitably distribute aid. Without stringent oversight, aid could be siphoned off to fuel the conflict, leaving the most vulnerable — Rohingya, ethnic Rakhine and other minorities — empty-handed.

Bangladesh itself faces significant risks. The corridor could inadvertently draw Dhaka into Myanmar’s civil war, entangling it in a geopolitical chessboard where China and India hold strategic interests. Beijing, a staunch supporter of the junta, has deepened its influence in Rakhine through ceasefire negotiations and border activities. A Western-backed humanitarian corridor could be perceived as a countermove, escalating tensions and complicating Bangladesh’s delicate regional balancing act. Moreover, if aid flows into Rakhine without guarantees of Rohingya repatriation, it could normalize the refugees’ long-term displacement in Cox’s Bazar, further straining Bangladesh’s resources and social fabric.

To mitigate these dangers, the corridor must be paired with a UN-monitored mechanism to ensure transparency and accountability. This mechanism should include independent observers, real-time tracking of aid shipments and community-led distribution networks involving both Rohingya and Rakhine representatives. Such measures would prevent diversion by the junta or rebel groups and ensure that aid reaches those most in need.

Myanmar’s junta, notorious for weaponizing humanitarian aid, has a history of blocking or redirecting supplies

Dr. Azeem Ibrahim

The UN must also secure commitments from all parties — Myanmar’s junta, the Arakan Army and regional powers — for a ceasefire or safe passage for aid convoys. Without these safeguards, the corridor risks becoming a hollow gesture or, worse, a tool for exploitation.

Dhaka’s conditions for the corridor, though not fully disclosed, must prioritize Rohingya inclusion. National Security Adviser Khalilur Rahman has rightly warned that peace in Rakhine is unsustainable without Rohingya representation in local governance. Bangladesh should leverage its position to demand that Rohingya leaders are involved in aid distribution and that repatriation guarantees are embedded in the corridor’s framework. Failure to do so could entrench the Rohingya’s marginalization and undermine the corridor’s humanitarian purpose.

The international community also has a role to play. Donor states must fund not only the aid but also the oversight mechanisms needed to protect it. The UN should coordinate with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations to broaden the corridor’s diplomatic backing, reducing the perception of it as a Western-driven initiative. Neighboring countries like India, China, Thailand and Laos, which share borders with Myanmar, should be encouraged to establish complementary aid channels to distribute the burden and deflect accusations of Bangladesh’s overreach.

Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Mohammed Yunus, deserves credit for its willingness to act amid domestic political skepticism. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party and other groups have criticized the corridor, citing risks to sovereignty and the need for broader consultation. These concerns are valid, but they should not paralyze progress. Dhaka must engage political stakeholders transparently to build consensus, ensuring the corridor is seen as a national, not a partisan, endeavor.

The humanitarian corridor to Rakhine is a high-stakes gamble with the potential to save lives or deepen chaos. Bangladesh, once again, finds itself bearing the weight of a crisis not of its making. By insisting on robust security measures, international oversight and a UN-monitored mechanism, Dhaka can ensure that aid reaches the Rohingya and other vulnerable groups without fueling conflict or instability. The world is watching and Bangladesh’s leadership could set a precedent for humanitarian intervention in complex conflicts. But without vigilance and accountability, this lifeline could become yet another broken promise for Rakhine’s suffering millions.

• Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim