RIYADH: Not many expected Saudi Arabia to still be in contention for a direct place in the Round of 32 heading into the final matchday of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
Then again, few expected Group H to unfold the way it has.
The expectation before the tournament was straightforward: Spain and Uruguay would arrive at the final matchday on six points, leaving Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde to battle for a slim chance as one of the best third-place teams.
Instead, Saudi Arabia took a point off Uruguay, Cape Verde stunned Spain with a draw and then held Uruguay again, leaving all four teams with something to play for.
Now, Saudi Arabia and Cape Verde meet at Houston’s NRG Stadium on June 27, while Spain face Uruguay in Zapopan. The permutations are remarkable.
A win for Cape Verde would send the debutants through. A Saudi victory, coupled with Uruguay failing to beat Spain, would see the Green Falcons reach the knockout stage for the first time since 1994. Even Spain are not guaranteed a top-two spot, while Uruguay could yet finish bottom of the group.
In many ways, Saudi Arabia against Cape Verde has become a knockout match before the knockout stage itself.
Al-Arabiya reporter Nayef Al-Thaqil, reporting from Houston, said the Saudi camp has embraced that reality.
“The players are treating this like a final,” he reported, adding that the defeat to Spain has already been put behind them, with the focus now firmly on correcting the mistakes made in that match.
Perhaps the most significant revelation from the Saudi camp is that the back five used against Spain are not expected to return. It would be a significant tactical shift, because if there has been one lesson from this World Cup so far, it is that bravery has been rewarded.
Haiti may have exited without a point but earned widespread admiration for taking the game to Scotland, Morocco and Brazil. Curacao lost 7-1 to Germany, yet became one of the tournament’s most celebrated stories because they never stopped attacking.
Cape Verde have built their campaign on the belief that they can trouble anyone, while even Iraq’s defeat to Norway was viewed more as the result of costly defensive mistakes than a lack of ambition.
On the other hand, Tunisia and Qatar often looked content simply to survive. Jordan defended valiantly, but many supporters were left frustrated by the team’s reluctance to attack when opportunities presented themselves.
Saudi Arabia fell into the same trap against Spain.
Even the draw against Uruguay left many supporters feeling opportunities had been missed. Marcelo Bielsa’s high defensive line repeatedly left space, yet the Green Falcons rarely committed enough players forward to exploit it.
That is why the approach against Cape Verde may matter as much as the result itself.
The Green Falcons are built around technical, mobile footballers who thrive with the ball at their feet. An overly cautious approach does not suit the strengths of players such as Salem Al-Dawsari, Mohammed Kanno and Musab Al-Juwayr.
Cape Verde have already shown they are capable of frustrating both Spain and Uruguay. Sitting back and waiting is unlikely to be enough. Selection, therefore, becomes just as important as tactics.
Questions remain over whether Kanno should return to the starting lineup after beginning the Spain match on the bench. Sultan Mandash is yet to start a game at the tournament despite offering pace in behind, while Saudi Pro League breakout star Khalid Al-Ghannam has been limited to a brief substitute appearance against Spain.
Then there is the case of Al-Dawsari who remains the face of Saudi Arabian football, but his performances at this World Cup have fallen short of the standards he has set over the years.
The captain has struggled to influence games in the final third, and calls from supporters for him to start on the bench have grown louder ahead of the decisive clash with Cape Verde.
The captain is in the twilight of his career, yet he remains the player Saudi Arabia look toward in their biggest moments. Whether Georgios Donis continues to place that responsibility on his shoulders, or turns to younger attacking options, may prove one of the defining decisions of the night.
However, broader questions have emerged after the devastating defeat against Spain.
Saudi fans have started to question whether the influx of world-class stars into the Saudi Pro League has accelerated the development of the national team, or rather, reduced opportunities for local players to grow.
It is a debate that will undoubtedly intensify once the World Cup is over, but for now, Saudi Arabia have something far more immediate in front of them. Beat Cape Verde, and a place in the Round of 32 could await.
Fail, and another opportunity on the World Cup stage will have slipped away.
