Israeli election will be the most toxic in its history

From the moment the sixth Benjamin Netanyahu government — and, one hopes, the last — was formed, the only question given its personalities, ideological platform, and overall competence was how much worse things could get. To be honest, it exceeded even the darkest expectations, and in the worst possible way. Hence, when an election was finally scheduled for Oct. 27, the announcement was welcomed by most Israelis, who have consistently expressed in opinion polls their support for parties currently in opposition.
What appears straightforward in a “normal” democracy does not necessarily apply to Israel, especially after the extraordinary years since this most right-wing, extremist, and disastrous government came to power. Two defining events have profoundly transformed and polarized Israeli society, while severely damaging the country’s international image and reputation, perhaps for generations.
The first originated with Netanyahu’s criminal indictments on charges of fraud, bribery, and breach of trust. Desperate to remain in power, after almost two decades as prime minister, he appears to regard the office as his entitlement, and motivated by the prospect of delaying, if not entirely derailing, his trial, Netanyahu legitimized the ultra-nationalist, messianic, and Kahanist elements of Israeli politics to assemble a governing coalition.
At the same time, Netanyahu eliminated almost all internal dissent within the Likud Party, surrounding himself with loyalists whose principal, if not only, qualification was their personal loyalty to the Israeli leader and his family. Alongside them stood coalition partners who espouse a deeply distorted understanding of liberal democracy, believing that an elected executive should govern with few meaningful constitutional constraints. They reject effective parliamentary oversight by the Knesset, dismiss judicial review, and routinely ignore the advice of the government’s own legal advisers. Weakening independent institutions and intimidating the media have likewise become essential tools for avoiding scrutiny.

Electoral deadlock could send voters back to the polls.

Yossi Mekelberg

This agenda prompted hundreds of thousands of Israelis to take to the streets in weekly demonstrations against the government’s judicial overhaul and broader assault on democratic institutions — until disaster struck.
The second defining event was Hamas’ cross-border attack from Gaza on Oct. 7, 2023, which killed nearly 1,200 people, saw 251 others taken hostage, and devastated several Israeli communities bordering the enclave. The attack traumatized the nation and ushered Israel into a prolonged period of almost uninterrupted warfare.
By the time Israelis go to the polls, the country will have endured three years of conflict that spread from Gaza across much of the Middle East. Israel’s military response, widely viewed as becoming as much a war of revenge as a campaign to defeat Hamas, has resulted in the deaths of more than 75,000 Palestinians in Gaza, the vast majority civilians according to many estimates. Large parts of the territory have been destroyed, most of its population has been displaced multiple times, a humanitarian catastrophe has unfolded, and Israel now occupies most of the Gaza Strip.
Moreover, Israel has fought on seven fronts and, for the first time in its history, engaged in direct warfare with its principal regional adversary, Iran. Despite significant Israeli tactical military successes, Iranian missile attacks reached deep inside Israel. At the same time, the Israeli military continued operations against Hezbollah, while maintaining a presence in parts of Lebanon. Following the collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime, Israel also expanded its control over territory in Syria.
This is only a partial account of the “achievements” of a government that has also left Israel facing genocide proceedings before the International Court of Justice, while Netanyahu remains the subject of an arrest warrant issued by the International Criminal Court. At the same time, Israel is more internationally isolated than at any point in its history, with relations even with Washington becoming increasingly strained — to the political, security, and economic detriment of the Jewish state.
Despite this record, Netanyahu is asking the electorate to entrust him and his government with another four years in office, a prospect that Israel cannot afford and which he definitely does not deserve.
Logically and rationally, all the parties comprising the current governing coalition should face severe electoral punishment. They first abused their parliamentary majority in an attempt to undermine Israel’s democratic institutions, then presided over the country’s worst single-day loss of life, and subsequently failed for many months to secure the release of the many Israelis held hostage by Hamas.
The government has also entrenched profound inequalities in military service. While most Israeli citizens are legally required to serve as conscripts or reservists, and many have accumulated hundreds of days of reserve duty over the past three years, large numbers of ultra-Orthodox men continue to receive exemptions from military service. This arrangement exists largely to preserve Netanyahu’s coalition agreement with the two ultra-Orthodox parties, which have been rewarded with substantial public funding financed by taxpayers who both perform military service and sustain the economy, unlike many beneficiaries who remain in full-time religious study.
Yet this is also an Israel that has lived under Netanyahu’s political dominance since 2009; a country still struggling to recover from the collective trauma of Oct. 7; and a society shaped by an age of populism amplified through social media, where the government has the audacity to blame the opposition for its own failures while promoting conspiracy theories against its political rivals.
Israel is also an intensely partisan society. Certain voting blocs, notably the ultra-Orthodox and many settlers, display exceptionally high electoral discipline, functioning almost as permanent political constituencies rather than supporters of broad-based catch-all parties.
Meanwhile, much of the opposition, particularly on the Palestinian issue and on broader questions of national security, has been reluctant to offer a genuinely alternative vision. Instead, it largely promises to govern more competently, more honestly, and with greater respect for democratic institutions. While these are undoubtedly necessary conditions for effective government, they are far from sufficient to persuade enough voters that a fundamentally different course is available.
Perhaps even more damaging, most parties which identify themselves as Zionist have pledged not to form a coalition with the parties representing Israel’s Palestinian Arab citizens. This position is not only morally indefensible but also politically self-defeating. Its discriminatory character requires little explanation. Politically, excluding the Arab parties makes assembling an anti-Netanyahu parliamentary majority extremely difficult. According to most opinion polls, the Zionist opposition falls just short of a majority, while the governing coalition also remains below the threshold.
Consequently, the election could leave Israel facing three equally unattractive outcomes: a minority government; breaking campaign promises by reversing the opposition’s refusal to cooperate with Arab parties or, alternatively, with Netanyahu; or yet another return to the polls in search of a decisive result that remains far from guaranteed.
Brace yourself for what is likely to be one of the most vicious and toxic election campaigns in Israel’s history, driven primarily by the governing coalition. And be prepared for the possibility that, once again, electoral deadlock could send Israelis back to the polling stations for yet another round of elections.

• Yossi Mekelberg is a professor of international relations and an associate fellow of the MENA Program at Chatham House.
X: @YMekelberg