The latest reports from Uzbekistan, putting the number of the dead in two days of violence in the Central Asian republic at over 500, clearly shows that Tashkent’s claim Friday that the situation was getting under control was more an expression of wish than a statement of fact. By all accounts, the authorities had done everything to bring the situation under control, everything that had proved successful in the past: In Andijan, soldiers shot into a crowd of 5,000 demonstrators using heavy machineguns mounted on armored personnel carriers; the protesters fell to the ground apparently hit; and soldiers continued to fire as they surrounded the protesters killing hundreds, including women and children. All this should have brought the situation “under control.” That it did not is an indication that new forces and factors are in play and that old policies and style will not work any longer.
The solution does not lie in blaming “Islamic extremists” either. It is true that thanks to the terrorists who commit horrible crimes in the name of Islam, such a label can demonize any person or movement and discredit it. However, there is nothing to prove that it was Hizb ut-Tahrir that organized the demonstration which brought out the machineguns. Of course, the group has its own political ambitions and is not averse to using the name of Islam to achieve them, but the accusation in this particular case seems to be aimed at deflecting criticism from a world horrified by the scale of death. When “Islam” is on the other side, any atrocity can be justified. Here we have US endorsement: “We are concerned about the outbreak of violence, particularly by some members of a terrorist organization that were freed from prison,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan. Score one, for the strategy.
Uzbek authorities have been displaying signs of nervousness after Georgia’s “Rose Revolution” in 2003 that ousted President Eduard Shevardnadze. Foreign nongovernmental organizations were banned. According to reports, up to 6,000 political dissidents are in jail and the government, suspicious of both religious groups and business for their ability to create independent political movements, has closed down private enterprises. According to Allison Gill, Human Rights Watch’s representative in Tashkent, “protests had arisen more often owing to economic issues and government interferences than in response to political and religious and political grievances.”
The impoverished region is Central Asia’s most densely populated area and has become over the decades a powder keg. The coming days will show whether the disgust over the killings will lead to the creation of a powerful opposition from the socially disaffected and the religious motivated groups. The task before President Islam Karimov is to prevent the anger from turning into chaos. Machineguns, mounted no matter on how many armored carriers, cannot do the work of genuine reforms and freedoms. Nor can they stop the trend of the time. The way ahead is through accommodation and reforms.
