TZIPI Livni’s chances of putting together a coalition government within the coming 40 days or so are good. But the 50-year-old foreign minister in Ehud Olmert’s Cabinet has a tough mission ahead of her if she is to become the country’s second female prime minister. Her right-of-center, some describe it as a center of center, Kadima party, may have lost its appeal, almost two years after its founder Ariel Sharon became comatose and was left for a zombie.
His successor, Olmert, has been described as the worst premier in Israel’s 60-year history. Even before he was brought down by accusations of corruption, Olmert was faulted for badly managing the war on Lebanon in the summer of 2006, which Israel all but lost. He failed to move the peace process with the Palestinians and has been unable to dislodge Hamas’ grip over Gaza. Added to his list of fumbles is his government’s failure to convince the Bush administration to direct a pre-emptive punch to Tehran and destroy that country’s nuclear facilities.
Still his coalition government survived and he was able to deflect calls to hold early general elections. His departure after more than two years in office comes at a bad time for the US administration, which was hoping he would reach a final peace deal with the Palestinians before year’s end based on the two-state solution. It is also a terrible blow to Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas, whose own term in office will be contested next January. Olmert’s exit and Livni’s possible takeover signals the beginning of a series of changes in top leaderships in the coming few months. Abbas may still find a way to cling to power, but his authority has already been undermined, thanks to Olmert and Bush, both of whom have failed to provide him with the necessary support he badly needed to restore people’s confidence in the ailing peace negotiations.
But the Bush era is quickly fading and it is unlikely that his foreign policy team will be able to convince Livni, or any other successor, of hammering out a deal before the end of this year. That job will be left to the next president of the United States and it would take a few months after Jan. 20 before the new administration decides to step in and salvage the bungled peace process.
The timing of the leadership change in Israel could not have come at a worse time for the Palestinians. Livni, who headed the peace negotiations in the former government, has played tough on the three crucial issues preventing a final agreement. Her famous red lines on Jerusalem, refugees and settlements, have kept negotiators pinned down. It is unlikely that her position will change drastically on these, and other, issues once she becomes prime minister.
Besides, in order to cobble together a new coalition she will have to make concessions to her major partner, Labor party, and to junior but essential parties as well. Some of these concessions include a commitment to take Jerusalem off the negotiations table. And without a deal on East Jerusalem, the Palestinians will not sign on to any settlement. In addition to wooing her political adversaries, Livni will have to decide if she has the political ammunition to confront the powerful Israeli settler movement, which her most likely rival, Likud’s Benjamin Netanyahu, enjoys their support.
Still her so-called sympathy with the Palestinians may be exaggerated. Livni is the daughter of Zionist parents who have been active in the terrorist Jewish movement the Irgun. It is still unclear if Israel’s iron lady shares her predecessor’s penultimate conclusion few days ago that the days of the Greater Israel dream were over.
Livni’s mission of keeping Kadima on top and defending her job from the encroachment of a strong Likud under Netanyahu will not be easy. She knows that she will need to find a cause around which the majority of Israelis will rally. She must also circumvent a possible Labor-Likud collusion to fail her and force early general elections.
Unlike her predecessor, Livni, a former Mossad agent, is known for her decisiveness, ambitiousness and willingness to take calculated risks. Her priorities may differ from those of Olmert and she might seek to polarize opinion over the one issue that almost all Israelis agree on: The Iranian threat.
Livni’s understanding of the international and regional political environments may encourage her to give the option of launching a strike against Tehran a closer look.
This option notwithstanding, Livni has a few cards that she can still play in order to keep her in business. One is to invigorate Israel’s negotiations with Syria, which are being conducted through Turkey. As much as giving up the Golan Heights is a controversial and complicated issue for the majority of Israelis, the political gains coming from neutralizing Syria will be enormous. A deal with Damascus will almost certainly distance Syria from Iran, Hezbollah and Hamas, three of Israel’s most tenacious enemies with one common denominator, President Bashar Assad.
No matter what happens next in Israel, the peace process, re-launched in Annapolis less than a year ago, finds itself once again in the proverbial ditch. There are few signs that Livni will come to the rescue soon. Yet she has proved to be a strong politician and she currently enjoys widespread popularity. The Palestinians will have to wait until she nails down the premiership. And then they will have to wait again to see what the woman has in mind.
— Osama Al Sharif is a veteran journalist based in Jordan
