Over the past few days, the Yemeni army has stepped up its military offensive against the Houthi rebels in the north of Yemen. The renewal of the military confrontation did not come as a surprise.
There are many who have classified the Houthi conflict as "most threatening" for the Yemeni government. In fact, recent months had shown that there was no possible diplomatic solution for the problem and that internal and external mediation efforts had reached a dead end. The mediation efforts had produced several peace agreements and countless ceasefires had been negotiated, including the Qatari initiative that resulted in the Doha agreement last year. Since then peace agreements have been violated and both sides have accused each other of not observing the ceasefire conditions and of not being interested in a political solution.
Right now, for the Yemeni government, resolving the conflict with the Houthis is top priority. Over the past few months, the Houthis have been able to take advantage of the many ceasefires to gain tactical advantages; this has generated deep concern in official circles in Yemen and the region.
The Houthi forces have expanded their influence and control into new areas, particularly on the Yemeni-Saudi border in the areas of Baqa', Al Hassama, and Al-Mashnaq. With the Houthis controlling more areas close to the Saudi border the conflict became an issue of regional concern, which led to increasing Saudi pressure on the Yemeni government to deal with situation.
Second, over the past week, Houthi militia have begun actively controlling access to the western part of the country and closed strategic roads used as supply lines for the Yemeni Army. Closing roads, the rebels aim not only to disable supply and logistics but also to isolate and demoralize the Yemeni armed forces forcing them to surrender. Many army camps and military posts have been placed under siege and come under fire from the rebel forces.
The situation became more complicated after an increasing number of tribes started to form militias in the last few weeks. Both the Yemeni army and Houthis have used tribal forces in the conflict. But of late, a larger number of tribes, who initially had taken a neutral stance in the conflict, have become involved. In provinces such Al Jawf, it was the Islah party that called on the tribes last month to establish armed militias to fight the Houthi forces in order to counter their advance in the area.
The decision of the government to finally step up the offensive against the Houthi rebels was caused by a number of factors including the belief on both sides that there is no hope of a diplomatic solution, the rapid expansion of Al Houthis' area of control into strategic areas near the Saudi borders, and, most of all, the Houthis' takeover of army posts in the north of the country.
Both the army and the government feel embarrassed and humiliated by the growing confidence and success of the Houthis and the apparent inability to find a political solution to the problem. The government feels it has to react if it wants to survive. It cannot appear to be weak in the face of the growing challenges being posed by the Houthi rebels, the threats from Al-Qaeda, and the challenge of the separatist movement in the south. If it wants to stay in power, it has to prove that it is able to control the situation in the North, if not through a diplomatic solution then by military means.
It is a risk for the army and the government to start an offensive against the Houthi rebels. In the past, the Yemeni army's ability to counter the rebellion has been limited. The army has difficulties in sustaining attacks in the long term, and the Houthis have used the tactical advantage provided by the mountainous terrain to their benefit, using ambush tactics and snipers to inflict huge losses on the Yemeni army.
Against the backdrop of the last five wars between the Houthi rebels and the Yemeni army, it becomes hard to predict the outcome of a new military confrontation in the north of Yemen. As the situation stands now, the Houthi rebels have extended their control over a large area, opening new military fronts, and even bringing the fighting to the doorsteps of the capital, Sana'a, last year in Bani-Hashish.
It might be a risk for the government to confront the Houthis, but there would be an even higher risk if it did not react. The difference between this battle and the others might be that this time it appears that the Yemeni government, the Yemeni military and security institutions, and key tribal figures have reached the conclusion that military action is a necessity and that countering the Houthis must be a top priority.
Nicole Stracke is Researcher at the Security & Terrorism Department, Gulf Research Center, Dubai.
