The renewed uncertainty threatens to keep official decisions on hold in the OPEC member of more than 140 million people and could endanger hopes of cementing an amnesty for rebels in the oil-producing Niger Delta.
Although Vice President Goodluck Jonathan is officially running state business, Yar’Adua’s wife Turai is emerging as increasingly powerful and controls access to a president not seen in public for three months and too sick to rule.
“Who is in charge here?” said the opposition Action Congress.
The headline on the Daily Trust newspaper read: “President + Ag (Acting) President = Confusion.”
Jonathan has been unable to see Yar’Adua since his return from Saudi Arabia early on Wednesday. A planned meeting with Turai to discuss the president’s health was canceled.
“He did not meet Turai last night as she was busy tending to her husband,” said one source at the presidency who did not want to be named. “They may meet today.”
Jonathan assumed executive powers two weeks ago in Yar’Adua’s absence and quickly set about reviving government work that had been in paralysis for months in Africa’s most populous country.
Analysts say those close to Yar’Adua had been worried by Jonathan’s assertive behavior and wanted the 58-year-old president back quickly, even though he is unable to work, to ensure they were not sidelined.
In a message to reassure Nigerians late on Wednesday, Jonathan said “The ship of state is on course.”
But officials at the Aso Rock presidential villa said there was frustration in Jonathan’s camp at not being involved in decisions apparently driven by Turai, and uncertainty as to why Yar’Adua returned if he was unable to resume work.
“His return adds to the confusion,” said Lagos-based analyst Adeyemi Adeleke. “If he is returning to take over the reins of power it is different, but you are returning to sit somewhere as an incapacitated president? I don’t understand.”
Nigerian media said Jonathan was unaware Yar’Adua planned to return until shortly before his arrival and that troop movements were ordered to protect the president without the knowledge of Jonathan, who was in theory acting as commander in chief.
“The president, as the father of the nation, should address the country on local radio and television to enable the citizens to assess his state of health,” said Lai Mohammed of the opposition Action Congress.
Yar’Adua may be in no state to do so. Sources close to the presidency said he was still in a mobile intensive care unit almost a day after being flown in from Saudi Arabia.
If Jonathan appears to be sidelined, it could increase the chances of a new flare-up in the Niger Delta, his home region, where militants threaten attacks on Africa’s biggest oil and gas industry if there is no progress on the amnesty.
“It is my strong feeling that if this situation continues, I guess it is not going to take more than one week, things will turn,” said Jonjon Oyeinfe, a former president of the Ijaw Youth Council ethnic rights group who sits on a government amnesty committee.
“In Nigerian politics, no matter how you look at it, the ethnic factor plays a deep role. An Ijaw man is (in the presidency) and the freedom fighters have looked on his presence and tried not to carry out actions that will make his position difficult,” he told Reuters.
Yar’Adua is from Nigeria’s largely Muslim north, where there had been unease among some politicians that Jonathan might become a candidate for the presidency in 2011, a post they want to keep for the north even if Yar’Adua cannot stand.
