Job prospects have improved in 18 large economies from three months ago but are flat in eight countries and weaker in 13 others as employers exercise caution, unwilling to take on workers until economic growth accelerates.
Hiring plans for the second quarter are unchanged in the US and Britain, and are down in several Western European countries, according to a quarterly survey by global employment services company Manpower.
Manpower’s US net employment outlook was a seasonally-adjusted plus-8, matching the first-quarter reading.
The number, which subtracts employers planning cuts from those planning to add jobs, stood at plus-6 a year ago. Nearly three-quarters of those surveyed plan no change to payrolls, reflecting widespread hesistancy to commit capital.
“People are waiting for a breakthrough,” Manpower Chief Executive Jeff Joerres said, adding that the pace of US job growth would likely pick up in the second quarter.
“But when you look at the labor market and the way companies have set themselves up, there is not going to be a flashpoint. This survey is more encouraging than not. This is saying, clearly across the wider swathe, that things continue to get better but (employers) are still cautious.”
Manpower’s survey results follow Friday’s slightly stronger-than-expected February jobs report, which showed 192,000 jobs added outside farming and the unemployment rate at 8,9 percent, a nearly two-year low.
The strongest hiring prospects are in the leisure and hospitality sector, Manpower said; government is weakest. Austerity measures in states like Wisconsin, where Manpower is based, could reduce US consumer spending and push up unemployment claims, but could also boost employer and consumer confidence if governments show they are getting their fiscal house in order, Joerres said.
Manpower interviewed 18,000 US hiring managers for its survey, a predictor of labor trends that dates back to 1962.
Manpower’s wider global survey showed a contrast between developed and emerging economies.
The job outlook improved in Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Romania and Poland from the prior quarter, but worsened in Germany, Spain, and Sweden. Weakest forecasts globally are in Greece, Spain, Ireland, and Italy, amid lingering effects of a sovereign debt crisis.
Strongest hiring prospects are in India, Taiwan, Brazil and China, Manpower found. The majority of Indian employers expect to add workers in the next three months.
Emerging economies are increasingly driven by domestic demand. China, for example, has taken appropriate steps to stimulate domestic consumer spending by raising wages, Joerres said, and wants to be seen as more than just a source of cheap labor.
Aside from South Africa, Manpower’s survey does not include results from Africa or the Middle East, where protests have toppled two governments in recent weeks. Such political upheaval is on the minds of international business leaders but does not pose the same threat to economies as last year’s sovereign debt crisis, Joerres said.
“Greece a year ago really rocked the markets and in May 2010 when Europe put its bailout together,” he said. “Those were big news and they hurt financial markets. What we’re seeing with the Middle East, people can do the math and say Libya contributes 2 or 3 percent (of oil supplies), we can make that up other places.”
Manpower has offices in 82 countries and generates most of its sales and profits in Europe. It is the third-largest global staffing company in terms of revenue behind Swiss-based Adecco and Randstad of the Netherlands.
