Authors and writers are not prophets. They do not speak from divine inspiration or as authoritative persons who divine the future. They are not even statesmen with great political vision, understanding and futuristic judgment. Scholarly books, writings and dispassionate studies — whether tasteful or distasteful, critical or appreciative — however help in understanding complex political situations, resolving intricate political disputes and coercing nations into introspection.

One such work that calls for attention is a recent book, “The Future of Pakistan”, by Stephen P. Cohen and others, published by Oxford University Press, India. In his preface to the book, Cohen writes that the book has “stemmed from a project that examined Pakistan’s medium-term future, roughly defined as the next five to seven years (2011-17). The book comprises 14 essays presented at a workshop at the Rockefeller Conference Center in Bellagio, Italy, in May 2010; two commissioned essays from Indian scholars; and Stephen Cohen’s long essay on the future of Pakistan. Cohen says the strategy was to approach the question of “Whither Pakistan?” from several perspectives. Besides some known American and European South-Asia experts, the scholars from India and Pakistan that have contributed to the book include Kanti Bajpai, Mohan Gurswmay, Bahukutumbi Raman, Anita M. Weiss, Tariq Fatemi, Shuja Nawaz, Shaukat Qadir, Hasan Askari Rizvi, Aqil Shah, and Moeed W. Yusuf.

Pakistan for donkey’s years had been an important ally of the United States in South Asia until it was recently replaced by India, but it is little understood in Washington. “There are no think tanks with programs dedicated to the study of Pakistan or institutes for studies of Pakistan in America,” says Bruce Riedel, a former US spymaster and author of the controversial book “Deadly Embrace: Pakistan, America and the Future of Global Jihad”. In his foreword to the book, he writes, “Pakistan is almost always grouped with its larger neighbor, India, in South Asia programs. This is understandable, given their common heritage in the British Empire, but it often means Pakistan takes a back seat to its bigger and richer neighbor in American studies. That is a shame; Pakistan is an extremely important country in its own right. If geography had placed it somewhere else, it would be seen as one of the emerging critical nations of the 21st century, but geography puts it in the shadow of India. It needs more attention.”

The brief forward quite incisively sums up the US and Pakistan relations. The United States has largely been responsible for not allowing democratic roots to strike in Pakistan, as it has been embracing all four generals who ruled Pakistan.

In his 69-pages long chapter “Pakistan: Arrival and Departures”, Cohen, a known Pakistan basher, debates at length the challenges facing the country, “originally intended by its great leader Mohammad Ali Jinnah to transforms the lives of British Indian Muslims by providing them a homeland sheltered from Hindu oppression”. He analyzes the threats to its integrity from militants within and outside. Debating on complex subjects such as civil or military authoritarianism, democratic consolidation, parallel Pakistanis, and external and global factors, he very subtly suggests that so far army remains integrated, “it is misleading to talk of breakaway of discontented provinces and the breakup of the states, or a total state failure, within the next five years. Those who predict such a future soon are patently unaware of Pakistan’s resiliency and capabilities, even if this is failing along many dimensions.”

These remarks in fact strengthen the narrative that emanates from Maleeha Lodhi’s recent book, “Pakistan Beyond the Crisis State”. The book by Cohen with inputs from Indian and Pakistani scholars gives a diverse perspective and provides an insight into the contemporary political scenario and the situation likely to emerge, but what made the book more gripping for me, was that it inadvertently threw up a debate on Kashmir. The debate very subtly forewarns about procrastination of the problem and its dangerous implication for the region. In the book’s afterword, Cohen refers to various studies and analyzes carried about the situation in South Asia before and after 9/11. India emerging as an unrivaled regional power — including naval and nuclear capabilities — does not seem auguring well for peace and stability in the region. The study carried by the National Intelligence Council sees “the widening India-Pakistan gap — destabilizing in its own right — will be accompanied by deep political, economical and social disparities within states.” Suggesting that the decisive shift in conventional military power in India’s favor over the coming years potentially makes the region more volatile, the study sees a major conflict between India and Pakistan overshadowing all other regional issues. It also sees turmoil in Afghanistan and Pakistan spilling over to Kashmir.

It will be hard for any scholar, while debating India-Pakistan relations or the South-Asian security scenario, to expunge or strike out Kashmir from the narrative. In his essay titled “Addressing Fundamental Challenges”, C. Christine Fair is critical of Pakistan’s army for its belief it is the only institution protecting Pakistan. He writes how this belief is woven in Pakistan’s discourse. Indeed, Pakistanis say their concern in Afghanistan stems from their fear of India, and once Pakistan’s issues with India and Kashmir could be resolved, their need for Afghan Taleban will abate, according to Fair. Blaming India of being appallingly shortsighted, Fair writes, “India demurs from making any policy regarding Pakistan that may be conciliatory, including by striking a comprehensive settlement between Delhi and Srinagar.” India, he says, “is clinging to the notion that its varied elections demonstrate that the Kashmir issue is resolved. However, as any visitor to Kashmir can attest, elections have not ameliorated the perverse discontent and dissatisfaction with Delhi, much less did they provide a path toward comprehensive reconciliation.” Seeing the Kashmir issue having merged with larger “Hindu-Muslim discord,” he is critical of New Delhi’s Kashmir policy that harbors on, “wait out, while India and Pakistan weaken”.

Some of the authors including Cohen see Kashmir at the center of Pakistan-China relations. Tariq Fatima, in his essay “Looking Ahead”, while analyzing the genesis of the problems confronting the country and its future, does not see Kashmir just as a “disputed territory”, but as one that “has impacted the hearts and minds of Pakistan”.

The book, a good study on the contemporary situation in Pakistan and its future, is an important read for students of South-Asian politics.