LONDON: Most world stock markets were set to finish 2016 in positive territory despite shock votes in Britain and the US, but the outlook for 2017 is clouded by looming European elections and Brexit.
This year witnessed a wave of anti-establishment populism, which saw Britain vote to leave the EU and maverick billionaire businessman Donald Trump elected as US president.
Both unexpected outcomes sparked a brief tumble on global equity markets — but many have since staged a stunning recovery to finish 2016 in the black.
London’s FTSE 100 has gained 14.3 percent over the year, while Frankfurt’s DAX 30 added about 6.7 percent and the Paris CAC 40 won 4.6 percent.
Since Brexit, London’s FTSE 100 blue-chip index has soared to end the year in record-breaking form, as the British economy shrugged off the impact of the impending divorce from the EU.
In a half-day of trading on Friday, the FTSE 100 set a new intraday and closing high of 7,142.83 points. “Fears of an imminent UK recession following Brexit proved wide of the mark thanks largely to the resilience of consumer spending,” NFS Macro analyst Nick Stamenkovic told AFP.
“Indeed, Brexit was viewed as a local rather than global issue, prompting a sharp turnaround in the fortunes of world stock markets.”
Markets also briefly tanked on Nov. 9 after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to capture the White House.
Yet Wall Street has since enjoyed a blockbuster run with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now on the cusp of 20,000 points.
New York has been boosted by expectations that Trump — who will be inaugurated on Jan. 20 — will honor election pledges to ramp up infrastructure spending, cut taxes and boost businesses.
“Rising optimism over possible tax reforms, increased infrastructure spending and reduced regulation have provided a spur for Wall Street — but there is a risk of disappointment once Trump becomes president in January 2017,” cautioned Stamenkovic.
Looking ahead to 2017, the spotlight is now on upcoming European elections. The Netherlands heads to the polls in March, followed by France in May, and Germany in the autumn.
“Populism is the rising mood of the moment,” London Capital Group analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya told AFP.
“Change is afoot within politics (with) voters prepared to dare to try something different, tired of the status quo,” noted Accendo Markets analyst Mike van Dulken.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is however widely expected to win polls set for September.
“In 2017, the main focus will be elections in France and Germany,” added VTB Capital analyst Neil MacKinnon.
“Voters are likely to reject further fiscal austerity and push back against further super-state integration,” he predicted. He added that Europe’s equity markets were also lifted this year by the European Central Bank, which has embarked on an unprecedented stimulus program to drive up lending and inflation in the euro area.
But MacKinnon also highlighted the region’s banking problem after the ECB called for Italian lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS) to receive a bailout of €8.8 billion ($9.2 billion).
“The longer-term challenge of bank recapitalization and restructuring in the eurozone area persists,” he warned.
In foreign exchange, many economists predict the euro could slump to parity against the dollar next year, aided by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates.
The Fed’s bullish outlook this month pushed the dollar to 10-month yen highs and sent it heading toward parity with the euro for the first time since 2002.
In Asia on Friday, Tokyo retreated again but Hong Kong rallied as Asian markets brought down the curtain on a volatile year. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.42 percent in 2016, marking the fifth consecutive annual increase.
Shanghai slumped more than 12 percent on the back of massive capital flight and a languishing yuan currency.
This year witnessed a wave of anti-establishment populism, which saw Britain vote to leave the EU and maverick billionaire businessman Donald Trump elected as US president.
Both unexpected outcomes sparked a brief tumble on global equity markets — but many have since staged a stunning recovery to finish 2016 in the black.
London’s FTSE 100 has gained 14.3 percent over the year, while Frankfurt’s DAX 30 added about 6.7 percent and the Paris CAC 40 won 4.6 percent.
Since Brexit, London’s FTSE 100 blue-chip index has soared to end the year in record-breaking form, as the British economy shrugged off the impact of the impending divorce from the EU.
In a half-day of trading on Friday, the FTSE 100 set a new intraday and closing high of 7,142.83 points. “Fears of an imminent UK recession following Brexit proved wide of the mark thanks largely to the resilience of consumer spending,” NFS Macro analyst Nick Stamenkovic told AFP.
“Indeed, Brexit was viewed as a local rather than global issue, prompting a sharp turnaround in the fortunes of world stock markets.”
Markets also briefly tanked on Nov. 9 after Trump defeated Hillary Clinton to capture the White House.
Yet Wall Street has since enjoyed a blockbuster run with the Dow Jones Industrial Average now on the cusp of 20,000 points.
New York has been boosted by expectations that Trump — who will be inaugurated on Jan. 20 — will honor election pledges to ramp up infrastructure spending, cut taxes and boost businesses.
“Rising optimism over possible tax reforms, increased infrastructure spending and reduced regulation have provided a spur for Wall Street — but there is a risk of disappointment once Trump becomes president in January 2017,” cautioned Stamenkovic.
Looking ahead to 2017, the spotlight is now on upcoming European elections. The Netherlands heads to the polls in March, followed by France in May, and Germany in the autumn.
“Populism is the rising mood of the moment,” London Capital Group analyst Ipek Ozkardeskaya told AFP.
“Change is afoot within politics (with) voters prepared to dare to try something different, tired of the status quo,” noted Accendo Markets analyst Mike van Dulken.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel is however widely expected to win polls set for September.
“In 2017, the main focus will be elections in France and Germany,” added VTB Capital analyst Neil MacKinnon.
“Voters are likely to reject further fiscal austerity and push back against further super-state integration,” he predicted. He added that Europe’s equity markets were also lifted this year by the European Central Bank, which has embarked on an unprecedented stimulus program to drive up lending and inflation in the euro area.
But MacKinnon also highlighted the region’s banking problem after the ECB called for Italian lender Monte dei Paschi di Siena (BMPS) to receive a bailout of €8.8 billion ($9.2 billion).
“The longer-term challenge of bank recapitalization and restructuring in the eurozone area persists,” he warned.
In foreign exchange, many economists predict the euro could slump to parity against the dollar next year, aided by the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance on interest rates.
The Fed’s bullish outlook this month pushed the dollar to 10-month yen highs and sent it heading toward parity with the euro for the first time since 2002.
In Asia on Friday, Tokyo retreated again but Hong Kong rallied as Asian markets brought down the curtain on a volatile year. Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.42 percent in 2016, marking the fifth consecutive annual increase.
Shanghai slumped more than 12 percent on the back of massive capital flight and a languishing yuan currency.
