Tunisia: A microcosm for deficit in economic thinking
Tunisia is back in the news with another chapter at the vanguard of the tumultuous period that is dubbed as the Arab Spring.
The regional tumultuous malaise started in Tunisia. So, it is worthwhile to opine on this phase of developments. We are told it started out there and is likely to succeed because the country is somewhat manageable in population size and homogeneity, putative civic societal base, small army with scant role in politics, and a deeper secular tradition.
One thing becoming clear is that the evolution of these transformations is going to play out on a much longer time scale to be described in terms of seasons. The malaise is deeper and likely to take longer to reach a higher new orbit.
It is probably no coincidence that this bout of anger and yearning for change started in the country closest to Europe. The Ben Ali regime governed from security prism, hence economics was relegated to lower significance.
Arab autocrats came almost too late for the security centric type of politics. Our age is one of economic ascendancy, and made more difficult with the advent of the informational age.
The economic underperformance and the inflexibility these security centric regimes rendered them inflexible and unprepared. This environment created unbearable pressure that was bound to give in. This twin pressure created unbearable dissonance between their archaic politics and the needs and aspirations of their populace.
The Tunisians' modern exposure was indexed to the French welfare model. It is probably ironic that at the time the French model structural weaknesses are becoming too apparent for all, the Tunisians among others are trying to emulate.
The French could claim to afford the social experiment, the Tunisians cannot afford it. But equally the Tunisians had been too patient with the misrule, including gross mismanagement economically.
Since politics during revolutions can be collectively irrational, a new political dynamic took over relegating economics into secondary order at best at the wrong time. It is as if the first generation was preoccupied with the security and state apparatus.
When I visited Tunisia twice on business trips few years before the recent events, I observed the unyielding demands of the work force without the commensurate productivity level or the business critical mass to justify demands for higher wages. The economic state of affairs was ready for social conflagration.
In a nutshell, the needs of people coupled with consumer driven informational age were toxic and was bound to move to the political plain. The Tunisian experience is only marginally different from Egypt or Syria. The Libyan case was marked by the musings of the deranged Gaddafi turned into policy in all spheres of life with deadly consequences.
The challenge for these countries is to find a new center of gravity in politics to summon the resources in human and materials to bring about a new economic order. A clear danger looms in over reliance on ideological doctrines, identity politics, and shallow symbolism to shape the new order.
It is probably good news that Ghanoushi seems to have a new awakening and the prime minister opted for a technocratic government even at the risk of alienating his party.
This alienation led to his resignation furthering the fragmentation of politics.
This development comes a few months before the awaited parliamentarian election. The implications are significant for Tunisia to find the elusive sociopolitical gravity to shape the new order for a new economic centered governance structure. Should they fail to face the reality, we are in for many seasons of waiting.
— Fawaz H. Al-Fawaz is a Riyadh-based economic consultant.
