The Free Syrian Army has once again demonstrated its ability to strike at the heart of the Assad regime. The military’s General Staff Command Building has been extensively damaged in two major explosions that were followed by a ground attack that last for two hours. From his presidential palace, not far away, Bashar Assad will have heard the explosions, maybe even have felt the force of the blasts and seen the pall of black smoke rising into the capital’s sky.
The fighters claimed that dozens perished in the blast. The regime said that no one died but that some guards were injured. Looking at pictures showing the extent of the destruction, such a claim seemed hard to credit. But then claim and counterclaim are features of virtually every conflict and Syria is no exception.
The only certainty is that the death toll continues to rise on both sides and is now put at over 30,000. On Wednesday, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, which is based in the UK, said more than 305 people had been killed in what it described as the bloodiest day so far. Unfortunately, the daily record for the number of dead and wounded, is now being broken on a regular basis.
Tragically, there is rising evidence that this bitter civil conflict is heading for a stalemate with the fighters unable to make the progress they planned. Certainly, their much-heralded advance on Aleppo, which they announced they would take in a major push, has not yet succeeded. Districts occupied by the opposition fighters in Syria’s second city, had been bombarded by jets and artillery, in a repeat of the cold-blooded, systematic destruction that the Assad regime has made a standard tactic. However for its part, the Syrian military was confident that it could move in to rebel areas once the bombardments had done their work. This has not happened either. Rebel fighters continue to hold onto several districts, thus the Shabbiha militias have been unable to follow behind the front-line troops, conducting their murderous mopping up operations.
Hillary Clinton told the UN on Thursday that the organization was paralyzed because Russian and Chinese vetoes in the Security Council meant that no progress could be made toward the international community finding a solution. Such an outright criticism of Moscow and Beijing demonstrates the depth of Washington’s frustration. There was, however, absolutely no sign that Russia or China were about to change their minds and back UN initiatives.
This means that the fighting will go on, with new record death tolls being set, more refugees fleeing their homes, either across the borders, principally to Turkey or Jordan, or to anywhere in Syria itself, where they think they may be safe.
Both sides will be seeking to land a knockout punch. It is here that the Free Syrian Army enjoys an advantage. It remains to a large extent a guerrilla force, lightly-armed, highly mobile and increasingly, thanks to advanced communication equipment with which it has been supplied, well commanded and coordinated. Destroying such a disparate fighting unit is a tall order, even for an army as well-equipped and disciplined as Syria’s. Indeed it is the very extent of its armaments and the logistics needed to support its tanks and artillery and jets and attack helicopters, that make the Syrian military’s job more difficult. They present a range of targets at which the rebels can strike at times of their own choosing. The destruction of the General Staff Command Building is a text book case of guerrilla warfare.
By and large, regular armies are trained to fight against other regular armies. Counter-insurgency operations are far harder to prepare for, even in a police state such as Syria, where any dissent was once crushed brutally. Moreover, regular soldiers quickly lose patience fighting against guerrillas. They, therefore, perpetrate war crimes, which earn for their masters, international condemnation, and for their rebel opponents, new recruits, outraged at the army’s savagery.
If Assad’s troops therefore cannot win, the question is how they will lose this civil war. The answer may lie in some more explosions like this week’s, in which the bombers somehow clearly penetrated the highest security. Were more top members of the regime to perish, maybe even Assad himself, in a similar blast, inside a supposedly secure area, the fighting might at last come to an end. Then, they would have to begin a long and difficult process of reconciling bitter foes, in the name of a united and free Syria.
Editorial — Another rebel coup in Syria
