TOKYO: An El Nino weather pattern is underway and will last until winter, Japan said yesterday, foreshadowing disruptive conditions that could harm crops from Australia to India at a time of rising fears about global food supplies.
Corn prices have surged more than 60 percent in the past two months as the US reels from the worst drought in more than 50 years, while global soy supplies are also tight after drought in South America.
Data suggested the El Nino phenomenon had emerged, the Japan Meteorological Agency said, referring to conditions in the equatorial Pacific.
Officials said El Nino could kick in at the end of the Indian monsoon in September.
Drier weather would be good for China's autumn grain growing period, mostly corn and soybean, which accounts for more than 70 percent of the country's total grain output, a senior Chinese meteorological official said.
El Nino is a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the equatorial Pacific that occurs every four to 12 years. It is the opposite of the very closely related La Nina pattern, which often triggers floods in Australia and parts of Asia. Intense back-to-back La Nina episodes occurred during 2010-12.
El Nino can also bring warmer, wetter winters in Japan and parts of North America, but any rains might be too late for the parched US corn crop.
Indonesia's weather bureau said any El Nino would have limited impact on the country.
