India’s likely post-poll scenario

• Unstable government: Quite likely.
• Congress: May get a record low ... what a waste of its previous mandate!
• BJP: If it comes to power, the Hindu radical party under Narendra Modi will be radically different from its past leaders. Which is what scaring Muslims all the more. The right (getting the) wing!
• Aam Admi Party: Will be the real spoiler to Congress. May not make much of an impact, but will make its mark on national level. All the best!
• Regional Parties: They can shape or break the chances of an anti-BJP dispensation at the center. It all depends how they call the shots, post election.
• When incumbency becomes cumbersome: Rahul’s tragedy is that he is at the helm of a party which is giving him hell to emerge on a national level.
• The turnaround: Even if Congress musters around 150 seats, or BJP is stopped at 180, Delhi will be up for grabs. Any taker?
• Weak Spot: Modi’s Hindutva-centric politics, Third Front’s splitting tendency, and Congress’ collapse under its own burden of sins.
• Distrust: It has much to do with the formation of the next government: Muslims distrust BJP; Third Front each other; Congress itself; and BJP under Modi distrusts non-Hindutva people.
• Third Front: A political mirage that never happens.

10 things certain to happen
• It will be another watershed in India’s political history.
• World’s largest democracy will have a new PM: Modi (frontrunner);
Jayalalitha (dark horse); Rahul Gandhi (distant possibility) … anybody else?
• Muzaffarnagar riots will cost Mulayam heavily, which in turn will change much of the election outcome.
• A BJP govt will focus on growth, do some hard talks with Pakistan and China, marginalize Muslims; though it will largely be a riot-free regime.
• Congress defeat will enable Rahul to be in the opposition, to do more homework.
• Muslims’ representation in Parliament will touch nadir.
• Minorities, mainly Muslims, will remain at the receiving end, setting off more confusion and frustration.
• Will be interesting to watch AAP politics during next five years.
• Politics of convenience will see AAP, Congress coming closer.
• India’s foreign policy will be more US-Israel centric.