If there is one thing that the UN vote on Iraq confirms, it is that the UN is no quick-fix shop. It has taken two months of intensive negotiations to come up with a resolution that is fundamentally what was suggested back in early September, when US President Bush opted to go along the UN route in dealing with Iraq falling into line with what the French, Russians and Chinese had pushed for: A new resolution threatening dire consequences against Iraq if arms inspectors were not allowed into the country by a specified date. The resolution unanimously agreed yesterday is basically that.
It does not take much intelligence, however, to realize that this is hardly the end of the road. It is only the first hurdle. Now the inspectors have to do their work — or try to. There is no point in heaving a sigh of relief, then, that all is going to be well and that the threat of war has been averted. That will only happen if Iraq complies in full with the resolution — and there is precious little guarantee of that, given the terms of the resoluton and the demands it makes of Iraq.
It is noteworthy that shortly after the Security Council gave unanimous approval to the resolution, US President Bush used threatening language against Iraq during an appearance at the White House. It was he, not UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan or the Security Council, who warned that Iraq would face “the severest consequences” if it refused to adhere to the terms of the UN resolution.
The only consolation for Iraq and those who oppose a war is the fact that the UN has taken so long to fine-tune a policy on which there was grudging consensus at the start. This means that when the deadlines are not met or the inspectors report that they have been given the run-around, there will be interminable arguments back in the Security Council on whether Iraq has or has not actually violated the resolution, with some cuuntreis like Russia and France demanding to give it another chance. Come this likely scenario, it will be strange if Paris and Moscow do not want to seek every means of avoiding the follow-up resolution of attack implicit in yesterday’s, and not just for pecuniary motives; both genuinely fear the consequences of a new war in the Gulf. But Washington in its bellocose mood is unlikely to tolerate further delays. Although US Secretary of State Colin Powell is on record as saying that yesterday’s resolution is purely about disarming Iraq, not a mandate to attack if it does not comply, the fact remains that the US and the UK have said, time and again, that they will attack if necessary, and that existing UN resolutions permit them to do so.
In reality, though, it will be difficult for the Russians and the French to stand in Bush’s way for too long. After the Moscow theater siege, President Putin, in foul and militant mood against the Chechens, wants the US to turn a blind eye to his plans for revenge. He simply cannot afford to make difficulties for Bush on Iraq: His sights are on Chechnya — indeed it is Chechnya that explains Russia’s patently unhappy acceptance of yesterday’s resolution, though they have misgivings about certain clauses.
Chirac, like Bush, is now in an unassailable position at home thanks to the summer elections. But he has his credibility to think about. It was he who demanded the two-stage process at the UN which the US reluctantly accepted. If he were to backtrack, it could make him look untrustworthy. Certainly, Washington would respond in fury. Just four days ago, it claimed that France, along with Russia, Iraq and North Korea, has been illegally stockpiling supplies of smallpox virus. it was a deliberate shot across France’s bow, timed as accurately as a Cruise missile — and it seem to have worked, even though the French have denied the story: Like the Russians, they reluctantly accepted the resolution. More importantly, from Washington’s perspective, it sent a thinly veiled message about how nasty things could get if France were to continue to thwart the US.
In short, a US-led war against Iraq is still a distinct possibility. It is the timing that remains a mystery.
